2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[AudubonB]

Thank goodness someone finally is making good use of log-10 scaled charts. Thanks, TT007 for those posts betweens #s 4026 & 4030.

I would strongly campaign for all to use them, at the very least when portraying moves of greater than one order of magnitude.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Do you plan to hold the starred calls until they are green (worth more than you paid), or ITM?

Thanks!

Great question
$410 call only until green or October 2017 at the latest by which time either it'll be worth a lot or totally worthless
$500 2019 call I'll hold for at least another year unless the stock tops out by October
My current thinking about TSLA is that it'll run up big time for next 6 months or so then top out in September/October time frame followed by a Sharp and vicious correction similar to what we saw in 2013 and if i do not sell all my call options by then i will lose out big time so I may end up liquidating all my options portfolio as well as stock in the next six months sidestep a correction and then buy back after two or three months of correction we will see how it all plays out
I've held most of my 2018 calls since 2015 or early 2016 except $410 call which is simply highly speculative
I like to get long term capital gains on all my options if I can as long as stock is rising steadily but if it goes parabolic then I don't wait for long term capital gains
With call options 30% savings in Long term capital gains is not worth losing 50 to 90% of profits when the stock goes south after a parabolic move is exhausted

 

[TrendTrader007]

Thank goodness someone finally is making good use of log-10 scaled charts. Thanks, TT007 for those posts betweens #s 4026 & 4030.

I would strongly campaign for all to use them, at the very least when portraying moves of greater than one order of magnitude.

You're welcome, Your grace!

 

[sdtslafan]

Would a delivery miss keep Elon from tweeting about Aliens like he just did?

Probably...not.

 

[larmor]

Would a delivery miss keep Elon from tweeting about Aliens like he just did?

Probably...not.

Yes, because Aliens are also patiently waiting for their MS and MX to clear customs at the dock(s).

 

[TMSE]

I like to get long term capital gains on all my options if I can as long as stock is rising steadily but if it goes parabolic then I don't wait for long term capital gains
With call options 30% savings in Long term capital gains is not worth losing 50 to 90% of profits when the stock goes south after a parabolic move is exhausted

If out-of-money LEAPs when bought, become deep-in the-money LEAPS due to stock price run up, another way to protect the gains is to buy protective puts with enough expiration period to cover 1 yr anniversary since the purchase. Of course these puts can become real expensive depending upon how much of the gains you want to protect. Simply put, as long as these protective put options costs are well below the tax savings, it could be a good strategy.

 

[austinEV]

Would a delivery miss keep Elon from tweeting about Aliens like he just did?

Probably...not.

Not to be a wet blanket, but "Elon is happy therefore news is good" has not been reliable. He has been playful on twitter before mediocre news comes out before. Remember that what makes us happy may not be the same as what makes him happy. Maybe he just saw a really great Semi prototype that will be big in 3 quarters.

 

[AlMc]

Not to be a wet blanket, but "Elon is happy therefore news is good" has not been reliable. He has been playful on twitter before mediocre news comes out before. Remember that what makes us happy may not be the same as what makes him happy. Maybe he just saw a really great Semi prototype that will be big in 3 quarters.

I would be very happy too if one of my companies just reused the first stage of a rocket and retrieved a 6 million dollar nose cone even *IF* my other company was going to have a small Miss on quarterly deliveries when my eye for that company is on the upcoming launch of a product that is likely to make or break me accomplishing mission statement #1

 

[neroden]

I'm afraid I don't understand this logic. The quarterly calls are still outstanding, and if they wrote the calls, they can't do anything to close them (other than to "buy to close" which will still force the price up. Can you clarify what you mean?

Oh, this is max pain theory. Since the market makers get hurt so bad if the calls execute, if they're in this position on the day of expiration of a very large number of calls, it makes sense to short sell the stock to keep the price below that limit, and then buy it all back after the calls expire (as soon as the aftermarket on Friday). They're likely to break even on the stock trades and still manage to get the calls to expire.

Seems to happen on expiration days with large outstanding options positions near the money. It's debatable whether the quarterlies are a large enough position for this to be happening.

To put it another way, no, the quarterly calls are not outstanding, they expired yesterday.

 

[neroden]

True for calls that expired yesterday (and I've done that myself), but @neroden referred to "quarterly calls". That's my confusion. The March quarterly calls expired back on the 17th. Yesterday's calls were just plain old weeklies.

Ahhhh, no, this is a terminology issue. I was being very specific. Yesterday's calls were actually something known as "quarterlys", which expire on the last day of the quarter. They're popular among trading companies which want the expiration dates to line up with their calendar quarter reporting dates.

 

[austinEV]

I would be very happy too if one of my companies just reused the first stage of a rocket and retrieved a 6 million dollar nose cone even *IF* my other company was going to have a small Miss on quarterly deliveries when my eye for that company is on the upcoming launch of a product that is likely to make or break me accomplishing mission statement #1

Right, I didn't need to reach for a hypothetical when there was such an obvious other reason to be happy. Thanks for proving the point.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Good afternoon gang. After a brief hiatus, I am now back in the stock. I believe there are many good months ahead of us. When do the deliveries get released? I decided to take a chance and buy before delivery announcement. Do we expect an announcement tonight?

 

[MitchJi]

Just made a large post (started a thread):
Battery Pack Costs Plus Overlooked or Underappreciated Items from Q4 Call

 

[MitchJi]

Good afternoon gang. After a brief hiatus, I am now back in the stock. I believe there are many good months ahead of us. When do the deliveries get released? I decided to take a chance and buy before delivery announcement. Do we expect an announcement tonight?

Welcome back !

Just in time for the parabolic lift off (we hope).

Within 2-3 days of the end of the month (Sunday or Monday).

 

[MitchJi]

Great question
$410 call only until green or October 2017 at the latest by which time either it'll be worth a lot or totally worthless.

$500 2019 call I'll hold for at least another year unless the stock tops out by October.

My current thinking about TSLA is that it'll run up big time for next 6 months or so then top out in September/October time frame followed by a Sharp and vicious correction similar to what we saw in 2013 and if i do not sell all my call options by then i will lose out big time so I may end up liquidating all my options portfolio as well as stock in the next six months sidestep a correction and then buy back after two or three months of correction we will see how it all plays out
I've held most of my 2018 calls since 2015 or early 2016 except $410 call which is simply highly speculative.

I like to get long term capital gains on all my options if I can as long as stock is rising steadily but if it goes parabolic then I don't wait for long term capital gains.

Thanks!

I hope when you and /or @jesselivenomore believe that it's time to sell you let us know! Because I never have a clue about that, knowing when to load up is relatively easy.

 

[Starno]

THE thing is the market always come back to fundamentals after the hyped is over.
The M3 good production and delivery will skyrocket the stock price, but after a certain time, there will probably be doubts over profitability which will create a short but big dip. Until profitability is achieved.

Something like 520 dollars back to 350 and then profitability will kick in and we will see the stock skyrocket, but at a more moderate pace over the next few years.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Thanks!

I hope when you and /or @jesselivenomore believe that it's time to sell you let us know! Because I never have a clue about that, knowing when to load up is relatively easy.

That's true. Buying is easy selling is hard. The safest bet with TSLA may simply be not to sell it for several years because the risk of selling too soon is real.
Twice in last 10 years I sold too soon and missed opportunities to multiply my money 20 times in CMG and BiDU. Realize the implications of that.... if I had put $1 million and multiplied it 20 times over twice I would have had $400 million within the span of 10 years! Those are life-changing numbers. I mean that could really change my lifestyle .
I just had an epiphany yesterday. My five-year returns have been in the order of 30 to 50% annualized but my 3 year returns have been approximately 25 to 28% and my one year return has been 17% and year to date returns as of end of February have been 20%.
I'm simply not happy with these numbers and there's absolutely no reason for me to think like a hedge fund manager or a mutual fund manager. Since I'm not managing OPM, why should I constrain myself with annualized returns when I should be thinking in terms of multiplying my money. at the end of the day I'm not investing to create a track record of my annualized returns. that is a fallacy. the reason why am investing is to multiply my money. plain and simple. that is the bottom line.
So from now on I'm only thinking in terms of how many times I am able to multiply my money and I'm paying zero attention to my annualized returns. in 20 years or 30 years from now I'll judge my success not by my track record of 20 to 30% returns every year but by my actual net worth.
How does it all tie to Tesla? Well Tesla is a great vehicle similar to chipotle Mexican Grill and baidu and Google and Apple and Netflix and Amazon etc. etc. to create wealth by multiplying your money several fold in a relatively short period of time therefore unless this stock goes crazy parabolic, the risk of selling to soon is very real so while I monitor day to day stock movements and I'm not averse to short term selling if absolutely indicated, I'm very reluctant to sell too soon. you simply have to be very open minded about the whole process and not have any preconceived notions or biases one way or the other, only time will tell, we will see
Creating wealth is a topic that I'm extremely passionate about and Tesla is one of those rare companies which is likely to be a super stock and a true wealth creater over the next several years I really believe so

 

[Starno]

That's true. Buying is easy selling is hard. The safest bet with TSLA may simply be not to sell it for several years because the risk of selling too soon is real.
Twice in last 10 years I sold too soon and missed opportunities to multiply my money 20 times in CMG and BiDU. Realize the implications of that.... if I had put $1 million and multiplied it 20 times over twice I would have had $400 million within the span of 10 years! Those are life-changing numbers. I mean that could really change my lifestyle .
I just had an epiphany yesterday. My five-year returns have been in the order of 30 to 50% annualized but my 3 year returns have been approximately 25 to 28% and my one year return has been 17% and year to date returns as of end of February have been 20%.
I'm simply not happy with these numbers and there's absolutely no reason for me to think like a hedge fund manager or a mutual fund manager. Since I'm not managing OPM, why should I constrain myself with annualized returns when I should be thinking in terms of multiplying my money. at the end of the day I'm not investing to create a track record of my annualized returns. that is a fallacy. the reason why am investing is to multiply my money. plain and simple. that is the bottom line.
So from now on I'm only thinking in terms of how many times I am able to multiply my money and I'm paying zero attention to my annualized returns. in 20 years or 30 years from now I'll judge my success not by my track record of 20 to 30% returns every year but by my actual net worth.
How does it all tie to Tesla? Well Tesla is a great vehicle similar to chipotle Mexican Grill and baidu and Google and Apple and Netflix and Amazon etc. etc. to create wealth by multiplying your money several fold in a relatively short period of time therefore unless this stock goes crazy parabolic, the risk of selling to soon is very real so while I monitor day to day stock movements and I'm not averse to short term selling if absolutely indicated, I'm very reluctant to sell too soon. you simply have to be very open minded about the whole process and not have any preconceived notions or biases one way or the other, only time will tell, we will see
Creating wealth is a topic that I'm extremely passionate about and Tesla is one of those rare companies which is likely to be a super stock and a true wealth creater over the next several years I really believe so

That's why I think it's important to estimate what can be the value of a stock at his peak before maturing.
I personally believe into the 700B - 1T dollar that Baron and Elon have said could be true over the next 10 years.

I won't sell before Tesla reach these values, except if there is a major fundamental change (like a technology that makes Tesla technology obsolete : like flying cars or something haha).

 

[SW2Fiddler]

My current thinking about TSLA is that it'll run up big time for next 6 months or so then top out in September/October time frame followed by a Sharp and vicious correction similar to what we saw in 2013 and if i do not sell all my call options by then i will lose out big time so I may end up liquidating all my options portfolio as well as stock in the next six months sidestep a correction and then buy back after two or three months of correction we will see how it all plays out

Affirmative bouquet and body, with pleasing yet coppery notes ...quite reminiscent of a bottle of 2016 J. Cox

Good afternoon gang. After a brief hiatus, I am now back in the stock..

Annnd there's the keg delivery. Not that that's a bad thing at all!

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Welcome back !

Just in time for the parabolic lift off (we hope).

Within 2-3 days of the end of the month (Sunday or Monday).

Thanks!