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racer26
Active Member
Steady run up, but seriously weak volume today. I realize its a no news day right before a deliveries report, but it seems exceptionally low volume.
Healthy consolidation. Add to that a big pile of options expiring today after a big runup - it's been common in past similar situations, so it's to be expected, IMO. If anything, I'm rather impressed by the runup in the last hour. Maybe max pain shifted up a bit since last night.
Edit - TSLA GEX ("gamma exposure") has been holding fairly high the last few days since the runup. That tends to put the brakes on movement/volatility. Since December, high GEX has always had this effect without news. My personal hunch is a pop upwards on Monday, assuming no bad news.
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Personally, I think TSLA is marching on 280 with pitchforks and burning torches today. With a decent Q1 delivery number, the walls of the fort will be breached and 280 will fall. That said, some end of day profit-taking is possible today (in anticipation of Monday's uncertainty) and if the numbers are somewhat low on Monday, a small dip is likely. I'm holding my TSLA investment, willing to weather any dip because I think the upside is far greater than the downside at this time.
Edit: Of course the broader markets did a swan dive as I wrote these words. You gotta have a sense of humor in this business.
Edit: Of course the broader markets did a swan dive as I wrote these words. You gotta have a sense of humor in this business.
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racer26
Active Member
I assume you're referring to this pair of tweets:
Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
Sounds to me like he's gonna keep some of the position, but is tiring of losing his (mom's) shirt.
erthquake
Active Member
What's happening with the broader indexes? Suddenly sharply lower and dragging down Tesla with it.
Exactly. Here's the other quote:
This is a big part of the reason I am bullish at this time. Shorts are willing to defend 280, but if Q1 numbers are good, 280 will fall and even Spiegel will be trimming his short position. The big question is the Q1 numbers. As the past two quarters have shown, they're really hard to predict with confidence.
Last quarter also showed that the exact delivery number doesn't always matter.
Sometimes I think the market just waits for large volume to move stock in a particular preferred direction even if the news is ambiguous.
Sometimes I think the market just waits for large volume to move stock in a particular preferred direction even if the news is ambiguous.
Seriously, can anyone figure out a way to persuade or trick Spiegel to stay short? If he is referring to margin calls and forced covering, I guess we can't do much.
Whoever invited him to speak at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in November 2016 did an excellent job.
In addition to the usual short-sellers, this could have been partly the work of options market makers. There were about 5000 $280 quarterly calls outstanding, so they stood to lose a lot if Tesla closed above $280 on Friday, especially if it went significantly above it. If they were involved, they're probably *already* closing their short positions. Monday should be interesting.
I'm afraid I don't understand this logic. The quarterly calls are still outstanding, and if they wrote the calls, they can't do anything to close them (other than to "buy to close" which will still force the price up. Can you clarify what you mean?
WallstreetJesus (twitter) noticed that someone dropped $250K today on April 28th calls - $305 strike.
That explains MS's tweets!
This is a Hail Mary to bail out his bad short bets. And it just might work. Well played sir!
It could very well be a hedge on a short position. We never know
That has trendtrader007 written all over it! Tesla is going to the moon next week.
(I personally love his posts. They get me psyched up imagining all the money we are going to make.)
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