If you think a sitting president being disgraced and impeached isn't a dire situation then your statement might be partially valid.
However it was Trumps loose tongue wagging on televised interviews saying he fired his FBI director to prevent the Russian investigation from continuing which proves he's obstructed justice. It was his loose tongue giving Russian spy masters secret intelligence. On and on, another brick in the wall every day. As fast as things are unraveling for him this week, how completely will a professional like Mueller unravel it? You must be hunkered down getting all "information" from Fox News to imagine what's happening is some media hysteria.
Regardless of one's political views there are only two potentially relevant cases in modern US history. Those are Nixon and Clinton. Nixon lied and protested while dismissing open investigation. Clinton compartmentalized his administration and managed through it. Nixon resigned, Clinton powered through it. We already have the Watergate era chart to look at in this thread. Given President Trump's Tweets of this AM we have reconfirmation that he's going "Full Nixon" but without good administration to go with it. Thus, I'd look at the Watergate-era chart, add some volatility and use that as the best surrogate. We should remember that the Trump volatility and lack of discipline will inevitably accelerate this process. Thus, I plan to ignore this volatility and concentrate on evaluating what a Pence administration will mean when it happens. I will use the betting markets (Ladbroke and BetFair) as my forecasting tools:
Ladbrokes
These may not be perfectly predictive of actual outcomes but they closely track market sentiment, thus short term volatility. I'm sure ones of our chartists already has correlation to other recent political events. There really aren't reliable Watergate-era betting market data that I have found. There are BREXIT data, recent UK, US and French election data. It seems to me these data are possibly better analogues to pure political market drivers than are market data directly because the betting odds measure the political variable directly and purely. From a statistical perspective modeling can be described (anyway it was so described in a thesis I wrote) as a 'passionate search for causality'. When causality cannot be accurately and precisely determined, heuristics begin to be relevant.
Right now we really need to sort out these influences as precisely as we can so we can better predict probable market reactions to the forthcoming drama. Example: Mr. Trump made two defiant Tweets this AM. Those, based on past events, might well further depress market recovery today. Will they? I suspect so, but at the moment I'll not bet that they will, especially because TSLA is having good news on Model 3 and Energy.
Sorry for fence-sitting, but sometime soon TSLA positives will overwhelm the political worries. I'm not smart enough to know when. The Ladbroke odds suggest to me that the market might have decided Trump will go, in which case, as I mentioned above, we need to assess the future President Pence. My view: Pence will be predictable. Predicable is positive for markets. Thus, regardless of specific policies there will be a "Pence bounce" that will last a while. Second: This is an elderly rising market, so overall there is probably not much upside. TSLA will, IMHO, handily beat the markets while gradually reducing volatility as global BEV and renewable policies become clearer.
Finally, If Green Mountain Power approach to weaker moderation works, we can anticipate gigantic growth for Tesla Energy and competitors worldwide. It will work; ergo Tesla Energy will accrue quite large valuation within the next few years beginning around the time that the Vermont installations go online.
