Thought this was interesting: iPhone was released on June 29, 2007; from June 22-June 29; stock decreased by ~1%... by July 6 AAPL was up 8%; 3 week later, AAPL was up 18% since 6/29, AAPL up ~60% for six months following iphone release until global financial crisis brought everythign down...one difference is TSLA is posting earnings week after M3 release... Earnings will be negative as they missed on Q2 deliveries; but reiteration by Musk that everything on track, ramp looking good could be positive catalyst.
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The shorts will do their usual hyperventilating routine with the Q2 report, but if Elon says model 3 ramp is going well, releases updated pre-order numbers and notes that they are growing, ect. How does the market react? It seems like there is a good chance that all the public attention the model 3 will get during the launch could lead to another 100K+ pre-orders. Kind of hard to image the stock selling off much in that situation. Also, from reading the AP2 update threads, if feels like with the latest update the EAP is finally turning a corner and the majority are pretty happy with it now, at least on highways.
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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Tesla's web site still says 215. But of course nothing about the larger pack. Who knows, maybe they'll surprise us on the range of the base model.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
1. I've been improving my strategy.
2. I can't find the chart yet, but I have a book about
I believe that TSLA is going to go through a phase or phases, starting relatively soon, similar to Apple.
It is also worth pointing out that the shorts and permabears have all assumed that Elon's lack of Model 3 pre-order updates is because the number has fallen over the last 12 months. Without considering that Elon wants to reduce osborne effect by not giving the media reasons to talk about the model 3 before it is ready for sales instead of the s/x that they currently sell. And he doesn't want to telegraph demand to competition anymore than he originally had to in order to get panasonic and other suppliers on board with high volume model 3 supply chain prep.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If you expect 215 they will definitely have a positive surprise for you
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If you expect 215 they will definitely have a positive surprise for you
Agreed. While I have no inside knowledge on this point I do believe 225-240 with base battery. This is RWD.
Yes, but without making an announcement Elon could make an announcement that there is going to be an announcement. He's done that before.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Like, 215 is for the recommended daily 90% charge.If you expect 215 they will definitely have a positive surprise for you
bdy0627
Active Member
Any particular reason you're posting in the market action thread?I'll take a stab: it might go up or it might go down. I think that covers it.
bdy0627
Active Member
It may well be, but here in this thread most of us are interested in discussing, you know, that darn stock price movement.
bdy0627
Active Member
Here's mine: Musk learned from the weak MX reveal. This will not be anything like that. I believe the reveal on Friday will moderately exceed the expectations of the market. I think the stock will rise throughout the week as attention focuses on Tesla. Q2 financials will be disappointing, as expected. I don't believe there is anything there that will exceed or underwhelm the market expectations. I believe guidance regarding the M3 ramp and 2H financials will be inline with expectations at this point, again not substantially exceeding or disappointing the market's expectations. I don't think the M3 ramp is far enough along for Tesla to be able to accurately provide any additional detailed guidance than what they already have.
If the stock rises enough this week through the M3 reveal then I think there is a higher likelihood of some negative effect from the ER. If it only rises moderately then I think the ER will have very little effect. Based on this perspective, I think adding a bit of extra leverage early this week is a good idea. Reducing that leverage the following week will depend upon the movement of the stock price this week.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Haven't seen this reported here:
Prices for X in Germany were reduced about 5% last night.
Possible reasons:
- at the same time the number of options was dramatically reduced (more bundling), e.g. the sound and the winter options are now included in the tech package
- ramping up the number of sales saves money for Tesla, part of which they return to their customers
But I think the main reason is
- adjusting prices to the weak $, Euro gained about 5% against the $, so this alone would explain it
Prices for X in Germany were reduced about 5% last night.
Possible reasons:
- at the same time the number of options was dramatically reduced (more bundling), e.g. the sound and the winter options are now included in the tech package
- ramping up the number of sales saves money for Tesla, part of which they return to their customers
But I think the main reason is
- adjusting prices to the weak $, Euro gained about 5% against the $, so this alone would explain it
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
No, I am extremely confident that it is at least 240 base range.
Well, for starters Tesla exceeded expectations by delivering the first Model 3 in July 2017, which Elon said was "impossible." Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Q1'16 Earnings Conference Call: Full Transcript
That having been said, I am not expecting any major "news" at the delivery event -- just showing off a beautiful, amazing car to 30 very happy people and a lot of positive buzz around the car. If there is some extra sweetener that would be great but IMO just pulling off initial deliveries in July 2017 is an incredible accomplishment that exceeded the expectations of almost everyone -- including those who were very optimistic about the Model 3 production timeline.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
March 2018 options just showed up wo prices yet on TD Ameritrade.
On Monday they will be available for sale.
On Monday they will be available for sale.
You left out it may go down in the morning and go up in the afternoon, or it may go up in the morning and then down in the afternoon.I'll take a stab: it might go up or it might go down. I think that covers it.
Here's my plan going into the final Model 3 reveal and Q2 ER.
-I bought one 8/11 350C option in anticipation that SP will increase leading up to July 28
-I also expect the final reveal/delivery event to be a positive catalyst SP driven primarily by the official range of the Model 3, which will be significantly better than 215mi.
-The day of the earnings call I will sell some call options (about 4 weeks out) and purchase either 8/4 or 8/11 OTM or NTM puts as short term SP volatility insurance. This has been successful the last two earnings reports for me. For the Q4 2016 earnings call, I bought four puts, and I let three of them exercise between 270 and 280. I then bought back in the following Monday in the low 240s. For the Q1 earnings call, I sold all the puts I purchased the day after the call when the SP dropped. I didn't think it was going to last.
Just sharing what has worked for me in the past. Not a predictor of future results, not advice, blah blah, <insert favorite disclaimer>
-I bought one 8/11 350C option in anticipation that SP will increase leading up to July 28
-I also expect the final reveal/delivery event to be a positive catalyst SP driven primarily by the official range of the Model 3, which will be significantly better than 215mi.
-The day of the earnings call I will sell some call options (about 4 weeks out) and purchase either 8/4 or 8/11 OTM or NTM puts as short term SP volatility insurance. This has been successful the last two earnings reports for me. For the Q4 2016 earnings call, I bought four puts, and I let three of them exercise between 270 and 280. I then bought back in the following Monday in the low 240s. For the Q1 earnings call, I sold all the puts I purchased the day after the call when the SP dropped. I didn't think it was going to last.
Just sharing what has worked for me in the past. Not a predictor of future results, not advice, blah blah, <insert favorite disclaimer>
Hopefully Goldman will sell a ton cheaply since anything above 180 is powerball type lottery odds.
If you do a ctrl-f and look for July in that transcript, you will see that Musk was specifically talking about "volume production". 30 cars by no means is volume production.
In one of the subsequent ERs, Musk talked about supplier timetable on volumes. Then ultimately recently released actual delivery targets on Twitter, which were roughly half the earlier supplier numbers. The SP tanked the day after. It's probably not fair to say Tesla missed timelines because the timelines were always fuzzy to begin with. Moreover the facts are yet to be known as it only counts once Tesla achieves volume production.
So it's fair to say Tesla didn't exceed expectations "yet".
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