2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[bdy0627]

TSLA bucking the trend premarket as it is up slightly while the Q's are down .67%. This should make for an interesting day.

 

[maxlength888]

What is the supercharger count going into this handover event ?

 

[myusername]

market tanks... tsla does a quick bounce on the line... drops another $9... then Vs right back to the line... premarket tanks... tsla sits right on the line... the same line since Dec 5th... why is TSLA "bucking the premarket trend?"... oh... i'm sure it's investor enthusiasm! hahaha!... yeah... that's what it is.

 

[jhm]

Remember the principle of news nullification:

The better the news is, the more aggressively the share price must be attacked to change the narrative.

So keep your powder dry to pick up shares at a discount on Monday.

 

[jhm]

Could this be the "surprise product" in September?

Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Stock Revs Up on Tesla Rumors | InvestorPlace

They'll have to add some mighty big woofers to make this work.

 

[Irishjugg]

market tanks... tsla does a quick bounce on the line... drops another $9... then Vs right back to the line... premarket tanks... tsla sits right on the line... the same line since Dec 5th... why is TSLA "bucking the premarket trend?"... oh... i'm sure it's investor enthusiasm! hahaha!... yeah... that's what it is.

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I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here but..
You do realize your line only touches two points long ago, is completely ignored for 7 months, then sort of hangs out where we are now.

That is one cherry picked ass line! If this is actually how people do TA then I can understand why it's statistically wrong as often as right.

 

[myusername]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here but..
You do realize your line only touches two points long ago, is completely ignored for 7 months, then sort of hangs out where we are now.

That is one cherry picked ass line! If this is actually how people do TA then I can understand why it's statistically wrong as often as right.

except for the fact that I drew this line nearly 2 weeks ago and haven't touched it since... and the SP is snapping directly to it. While the guy on CNBC decided the trendline was pointing to $350 2 weeks ago... this was actually the line.

This line marks the beginning of a trend that started on Dec 5th at $180 and resulted in a spike to $380... I AGREE WITH YOUR CRAZY PILLS... the fact that it's STILL the thing the SP is trading against is CRAZY.

 

[Reciprocity]

except for the fact that I drew this line nearly 2 weeks ago and haven't touched it since... and the SP is snapping directly to it. While the guy on CNBC decided the trendline was pointing to $350 2 weeks ago... this was actually the line.

This line marks the beginning of a trend that started on Dec 5th at $180 and resulted in a spike to $380... I AGREE WITH YOUR CRAZY PILLS... the fact that it's STILL the thing the SP is trading against is CRAZY.

You should be on CNBC for sure. Then I wouldnt have to see you... J/K I watch CNBC sometimes.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Contrarian signal? Posted this morning by SeekingAlpha "Breaking News" team:

"How to trade the event? If history is any guide, Tesla shares tend to fall once the rubber meets the road. The stock dropped significantly the week and month after both of the last two releases: The Model S in 2012 and Model X in 2015."

The difference between now and then: valuation is lower today. Nevertheless, I'm staying put until after 2Q17 earnings. The few weeks can be very volatile, but I expect a relatively smooth ride (in TSLA terms) thereafter.

Staying put = Stock with conservative amount of margin and some LEAPs

Best indicators are contrarian indicators

I'm lovin' it.

Just do it, Elon.

The CEO never sleeps.

Got Tesla?

California - the happiest place on Earth.

Shorts - When it rains, it pours!

Model 3 - finger lickin' good.

Model 3 reservation - Betcha can’t have just one.

EV - The UnICE

Volkswagen – Think small.

Do you…Tesla!?

The future is friendly.

The ultimate driving machine...

 

[myusername]

You should be on CNBC for sure. Then I wouldnt have to see you... J/K I watch CNBC sometimes.

i drew a line 2 weeks ago... and yesterday with 6% of total trading range... the SP closed EXACTLY on it. and this trend started last year... how do you explain that?

 

[Reciprocity]

i drew a line 2 weeks ago... and yesterday with 6% of total trading range... the SP closed EXACTLY on it. and this trend started last year... how do you explain that?

I honestly dont care. Can you draw me one that goes out 30 years, because that would be of some interest to me.

 

[myusername]

I honestly dont care. Can you draw me one that goes out 30 years, because that would be of some interest to me.

i would argue that you should care... this stock is the sole marker for Tesla's success... it is constantly used as an argument for why Tesla is succeeding... and when you see this sort of thing... it appears that this argument is completely manufactured. I know you're opinion is that Tesla has succeeded already... and they are about to explode. does your opinion have anything to do with the share price?... if instead of bouncing off $180 it returned to $100... would you have a completely different opinion that would be more in line with the general opinions that tend to weight a company's success on its SP instead of the actual business successes?

these "hype" stocks are run by bots that are deciding the SP. this could never be more clear after the last year of this stocks activity. a single negative M3 event could take this stock to $30 or less overnight because there's 5 years of M3 success baked into. how many other auto manufacturers are exposed to that sort of risk?

they aren't... because they don't have trendlines that their stocks snapped to resulting in greater than 100% rises in 9 months.

there is no foundation for this SP... and the stock has been driven up... and then afterwards... justified by years of premature speculation.

it's possible that these "trends" may be simply invalidated after tonight... as Tesla finally becomes viewed as the auto company it is.

 

[geneclean55]

Our boy, myusername, shows up right on cue on the 28th. If you could put money on such things, I would be sitting pretty right now.

 

[D-egg-O]

Our boy, myusername, shows up right on cue on the 28th. If you could put money on such things, I would be sitting pretty right now.

He/she confirmed my purchase of 87 shares after hours.

 

[DurandalAI]

Contrarian signal? Posted this morning by SeekingAlpha "Breaking News" team:

"How to trade the event? If history is any guide, Tesla shares tend to fall once the rubber meets the road. The stock dropped significantly the week and month after both of the last two releases: The Model S in 2012 and Model X in 2015."

The difference between now and then: valuation is lower today. Nevertheless, I'm staying put until after 2Q17 earnings. The few weeks can be very volatile, but I expect a relatively smooth ride (in TSLA terms) thereafter.

Staying put = Stock with conservative amount of margin and some LEAPs

I agree, that while we may have some sell after the event, it should be limited since we aren't coming off of an ATH. Just a WAG, but I suspect that something new/cool will be revealed along with the M3 known features that should help negate a "sell the news" from having much of an impact.

 

[austinEV]

Though I agree the Model 3 ramp is the focus. A surprise on the rated range would be a positive catalyst imo.

Customer features don't tend to be catalysts. If the surprise today is nicer interior, bells, whistles, spare tire whatever, that is good for the company long term, good for consumers etc. But not a catalyst for short term trading.

What WOULD be? High reservation numbers, a bullish update on the ramp, gross margin comments, etc. None of which I expect at the handover event. It will be a consumer focused party, its not a make shareholders happy party. Those things would come out in the ER in 3 days not tonight. These parties tend to be about congratulating the team for making what they said they would and getting lots of applause for stuff we basically know.

 

[Reciprocity]

NASDAQ, my love hate relationship with you is tilting back towards love as you battle back from being down this morning! Hopefully this helps push TSLA even higher.

 

[Doit]

Might be a digression - I'll delete if so.

I tried to send the following message through Tesla IR "Contact Investor Relations" web form, but got "400 Bad Request", tried both Chrome and MS Edge (Windows 10):

TIME SENSITIVE!!! Likely Fraudulent Activities Concerning Project Loveday

Tesla,

As a Tesla investor, it's great to see Project Loveday has been very successful so far. I've also been aware that the top 3 most liked projects will be featured on tonight's webcast of Model 3 handover party.

However, there is strong evidence that at least one video has connected with fraudulent activity of gaining "likes" and embedding ad in the video while playing it on desktop, which should outright disqualify it:

1) Personally, I checked my phone to see who's leading on the "likes" early this morning and was astonished seeing this particular video (Tesla on Twitter) is being liked several hundred times within 5 minutes or so, while all other 9 videos basically stayed the same, maybe "liked" once or twice. Statistically, the probability of such discrepancy of this one vs. other nine is close to zero.

2) Edit: delete for privacy

3) By following the link on my desktop (Windows 10, Chrome 59.0.3071.115), this particular video has embedded ad in it. It basically takes advantage of Loveday as a tool to do their own ad.
And yes, my very powerful AdBlock can’t do anything about the ad, as it’s embedded. The ad not showing on my iPhone on the other hand, so make sure to verify it with Desktop.

4) There are other replies to the tweet of this video raising similar concerns about "buying likes," "bot", "likes from Russian," etc.

Based on my curt sleuth, this video should be disqualified and particularly, it should never make it to tonight's webcast.

Please investigate and act accordingly.

Yours Sincerely,

One Retail Investor

Am I doing something totally unwarranted or should I keep trying/using different ways to reach them?

 

[Curt Renz]

Might be a digression - I'll delete if so.

I tried to send the following message through Tesla IR "Contact Investor Relations" web form, but got "400 Bad Request", tried both Chrome and MS Edge (Windows 10):



Am I doing something totally unwarranted or should I keep trying/using different ways to reach them?

It worked fine for me yesterday through Chrome and Windows 10, when I sent hopes for a better audio system than what was used at past earnings report conference calls.

Just now I again successfully opened the form, but had no reason to send a message.

EDIT: Please let us know if you get through. If not, I'll send your message for you.

 

[Irishjugg]

i would argue that you should care... this stock is the sole marker for Tesla's success... it is constantly used as an argument for why Tesla is succeeding... and when you see this sort of thing... it appears that this argument is completely manufactured. I know you're opinion is that Tesla has succeeded already... and they are about to explode. does your opinion have anything to do with the share price?... if instead of bouncing off $180 it returned to $100... would you have a completely different opinion that would be more in line with the general opinions that tend to weight a company's success on its SP instead of the actual business successes?

these "hype" stocks are run by bots that are deciding the SP. this could never be more clear after the last year of this stocks activity. a single negative M3 event could take this stock to $30 or less overnight because there's 5 years of M3 success baked into. how many other auto manufacturers are exposed to that sort of risk?

they aren't... because they don't have trendlines that their stocks snapped to resulting in greater than 100% rises in 9 months.

there is no foundation for this SP... and the stock has been driven up... and then afterwards... justified by years of premature speculation.

it's possible that these "trends" may be simply invalidated after tonight... as Tesla finally becomes viewed as the auto company it is.

Your theories make a fundamental misunderstanding of how trading bots work and how the market functions.

The line you drew is touched in 3 places on the chart, it's not a very good fit. Your line in December was actually a great fit for the short term action, it doesn't fit now though, does it?

I can draw nearly an infinite number of lines that the stock follows for short time frames. I really think you are blinding yourself with confirmation bias in your conspiracy theory here.

The idea that issues with model 3 could drop us back to 30 is incorrect and laughably so. I normally like and defend your charting ideas and insights, but this recent one is just not very good. I get the impression that you are just flabbergasted at how much the market disagrees with your valuation for TSLA and that you are searching for any way that would allow you to say that you aren't wrong, the market is just being manipulated.

I'm sorry to say, so far you have just been wrong. The market values TSLA much higher than you do, and that's the long and short of it.