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Waiting4M3
Active Member
So you're saying that it took Tesla 12-15 months to catch up to Mobileye's 10 years of heavy lifting, and it's all credit to Elon Musk, who is now spending most of his time with the FSD team. Sounds good to me.
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Another way to look at this lead that you're mentioning is that, when Tesla lost AP1 HW after the Mobileye break up, they potentially fell 10 years behind, and it took them 12-15 months to catch back up, instead of the 3-6 months that Elon optimistically predicted. But still they're progressing 8-10X faster than Mobileye. You can't judge the lead as a static snapshot, you have to look at the rate of improvement also.
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I do not take this "branding" as you put it lightly, but unfortunately, imo, you exhibit it all the time. Look no furhter than discussion about Tesla using proceeds from bond issue to retire higher interest Solar City debt.
Duly noted. Bookmarking this post and will be glad to see your praise when time comes.
When competitors over a sudden go quiet, seizing the "look, we are better" propaganda will make me weary...
Another sign would be somebody submitting system deployed on *production* car (sans appendages) for NHTSA Level 3 approval **before** Tesla does the same. Not sure if this is possible at this point...
It took them 12-15 months to catch up to the state of MobilEye 2 years ago. Obviously that is not where MobilEye stands today. That it originally took 10 years for MobilEye to get to AP1 says absolutely nothing about the quality of the effort done to replicate it, especially in this field. Progress is so incredibly swift (in terms of publicly and privately distributed research, hardware progress, available proprietary and open source code, funding, Silicon Valley and public interest etc) that what took a team of PhD's just 5 years ago can be done by a motivated junior high schooler today (figure of speech, you get what I mean).
To me, the credit for Elon Musk is that he is the guy who made the executive decision : yes, we ship it. It required intimate knowledge and understanding of what his team wass doing and where they were and yet is was still an enormous gamble. Typically, to more you know, the more you're biased to overprudence. Elon is able to see through that. In this field, that's unique.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm getting more confident in my shorter term SP predictions. Too confident for my comfort.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I actually have a gut feeling that Tesla is in quiet because they can afford to be. They needed the original AP1 to drive demand, they needed to drum up AP2 to keep up the "M3 reveal Pt2" promise, and also get in front of the Mobileye breakup. They don't need to do any of that right now, so why show your hand? As you said, it would worry you if any of the competitors suddenly go quiet. Well, Tesla is quiet now...
Yep, that was a mistake and I acknowledged it as soon as read @neroden 's reply to set me straight. It was not my first mistake here and it will certainly not be my last. What was your last mistake?
I am not afraid of admitting I was wrong. See above. If by year end, Tesla is showing a nice coast-to-coast fully autonomous drive starting at SF city hall and ending at the NYC public library, I will be the first to acknowledge I was wrong. But how much time without progress will it take before you accept that maybe that video from November last year was not indicative of Tesla's state of FSD back then?
Sorry, I don't understand?
Fair enough. I also actually think that it is more likely that Tesla is first, so not really a risky proposition though.
Well, the problem, imo, is not the mistake, although assuming the worst and Tesla being stupid is infromative. The problem that even in admitting the mistake, you still seemingly maintained your conclusion that Tesla goofed up with this one... I am not making stuff up. The problem is not in mistakes, the problem, imo, is in clearly exhibited bias.
Model 3 VIN#301 spotted in Louisiana. Hard to see through the opacity of Tesla's delivery schedule at the moment, but perhaps this means that they're already ahead of schedule? Would think such news might swing us back to green.
SOURCE: Model 3 VIN #301 spotted in Louisiana (album) • r/teslamotors
SOURCE: Model 3 VIN #301 spotted in Louisiana (album) • r/teslamotors
Agreed. This thread is glorious with pure trolls on ignore, which I have done for years now. If I want to scan the blatherings of #YOLOTESLATROLLBOI4LYFE type posts for some masochistic reason, I can simply visit Seeking Mediocrity anytime. I come here for honest discourse, and I'm not afraid to take blind Tesla cheerleaders down a peg, either. We've done a pretty good job staying level-headed around here.
So anyway yeah, use the Ignore feature, and profit.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
On the most recent call Elon said that he has been driving the most recent AP versions and he said that it's very impressive.
I believe that on the same call he said that the schedule for the end-of-year demonstration might (or probably?) will slip.
When I hear Elon say that he's very pleased with the results and I read the skeptical posts I just laugh, remembering the video of the used rocket landing on the barge in the ocean. We need a ludicrous feedback button.
That also applies to people who are concerned with Tesla hitting 5k M3's per week by the end of the year, or 10k by 2018, 2018 or 25% margins. He said that he is extremely confident about all three. It's an opportunity for us to make huge profits from "insider information" compared to the market by merely believing Elon's ER call statements!
That is a decent beginning to an explanation for why I'm extremely confident that buying J19 LEAPS is like shooting fish in a barrel, and why I'm planning after the dip to (I hope) ~$315 to put our entire portfolio, about $400k into LEAPS.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
Some say VIN 300's were RC's so don't count towards production guidance.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
One interesting data point on FSD, it seems that there was some form of house-cleaning that happened in June around Andrej Karpathy hire. In an Feb 2016 article I dug up on Tesla's autonomous team, it highlighted 4 engineers, Alexander Mott, Berta Rodriguez-Hervas, Minwoo Park, and Hae-Jong Seo. All 4 left Tesla in June '17, Mott is at DeepMind, and Rodriguez-Hervas, Park and Seo are at NVidia. The article also mentioned 4 other engineers, Glenn Elliott, Hyunggi Cho, Frank Havlak, and Mark McClelland, Elliott and Cho left in Dec '16 and Jen'17 coincided with Chris Lettner hiring, Havlak and McClelland are still with Tesla.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I think neroden is making fun of himself, always a sign of intelligence.
There are a number of you I would like to meet in person because reading your comments doesn't seem to do justice to the personality types I have pictured in my head.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
There are a number of you I would like to meet in person because reading your comments doesn't seem to do justice to the personality types I have pictured in my head.
I don't think I'm on that list, but just so you know, I look like in the picture.
It seems the difference between RCs and production VINs is the check digit (9th digit in the VIN). The explanation of the check digit is weird, Vehicle Identification Numbers (VIN codes)/Check digit - Wikibooks, open books for an open world
There are a number of you I would like to meet in person because reading your comments doesn't seem to do justice to the personality types I have pictured in my head.
Hard to tell which of us has a personality defect.
Edit: Like poetry, in general, a first operative principle of physics (aesthetics too) is symmetry. Stolen from Hegel's first law, the unity of opposites, which he stole from the Chinese. It helps, too, to have a wife born in Asia (1/4 Chinese) who definitely has me by the y***y*** at first blush for cosmetic reasons, now as a cane-like correction for fuddy-fuddyiness and just plain ordinary superior intelligence combined with what jhm calls "kindly recognition of vulnerabilities."
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