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Yeah, and they could have a nuclear fission reactor built into each Model 3 battery too. Let's move away from hypotheticals that are extremely unlikely.



Let's start with the first distinct FSD feature we'd maybe have by April but certainly see by July?

All circumstancial evidence points towards Tesla's lead on fully autonomous drive research being a lot smaller than it used to be and a lot smaller than a lot of people here are willing to admit. Let's sum it up

* Video evidence from other manufacturers is far more impressive and convincing than the single Tesla video
* Every single milestone on anything autonomy related since AP2 has been missed
* Elon, of all people, is already signalling they are going to miss more milestones
* A software department in heavy turmoil with 3 executives in the scope of half a year
* Fixing the hardware suite way before software is ready makes the job harder than other teams that can still adapt hardware to (quickly) evolving needs
* AP2.1 hardware already out, strengthening the case that software team is feeling pressure from fixed hardware constraint and pushed internally for partial relieve

Let me know which circumstancial evidence I have missed that could show Tesla is increasing it's autonomous drive research lead on other manufacturers.

Let's not hyperventilate over **conjectures** on **circumstantial** evidence.

Why not consider **direct** evidence right in front of our eyes: Tesla Autopilot, deployed on the cars without Taj Mahals on the roofs and obscene protrusions all over the sides, is superior to anything deployed by anybody so far. I think when you question everything related to Tesla, while enthusiastically waving somebody's press release or amusing yourself with half baked pre-prototype systems, the conclusions are questionable (and that is an understatement). We have direct evidence that other companies are actively involved in deception and desperate attempts to manipulate public opinion to hide just how far behind they are. You are eating bs they feed to you.
 
You are assuming that Tesla would make its progress on FSD public. I don't think this is a warranted assumption.

No, I dont. Therefore I was looking at circumstancial evidence. Let me know if you have some.

In fact, Tesla has a strong incentive to hold back on FSD advancements until Model 3 production ramps and some regulatory progress is evident.

Disagree. And Elon disagrees as well otherwise he wouldn't be tweeting about the first features showing up in April maybe and July certainly.

On the substance, Tesla has a strong incentive to release as much as possible now : on the Model S/X. That's a car that is ready to roll and brings in the cheapest cash the company can imagine. It's also the best way to relieve pressure on the Model 3 pipeline because it provides excellent motivation for those reservation holders primarily interested in FSD to step out of the line and move on to an S. Regulation wise, there is nothing better than geofence their capabilities (trivial for Tesla, already implemented) and release it in select favourable jurisdictions. It's easy for lawmakers and regulators to dismiss something that doesn't actually exist, but when S/X owners start calling their switchboard asking why they can't use FSD it becomes a very different political calculation.
 
...
* Video evidence from other manufacturers is far more impressive and convincing than the single Tesla video
Possibly true, but lack of release of video is proof of nothing.
* Every single milestone on anything autonomy related since AP2 has been missed
* Elon, of all people, is already signalling they are going to miss more milestones
EM can't win with you -- if he doesn't hedge you complain, and if he does, you do too.
* A software department in heavy turmoil with 3 executives in the scope of half a year
Rather normal for the field ... compare to the others.
* Fixing the hardware suite way before software is ready makes the job harder than other teams that can still adapt hardware to (quickly) evolving needs
Fixing the hw later is expensive. This approach is efficient.
* AP2.1 hardware already out, strengthening the case that software team is feeling pressure from fixed hardware constraint and pushed internally for partial relieve
It appears the hw has a different focus in the 3 than in the S/X. More focused on taxi-like function. Compute power is updatable in the smaller number of AP2 cars. Again, efficient choice. Compute hw costs are declining.
Let me know which circumstancial evidence I have missed that could show Tesla is increasing it's autonomous drive research lead on other manufacturers.
Waste of our time.
 
here's an excerpt from that link above:

EM: "Yeah, I'm not too familiar with what the various (31:01) levels mean, but I can tell you just what it will translate to in the initial Autopilot. The – we don't want to set the expectation that it's – that you can just basically pay no attention to what the car is doing, we do want to set the expectation that it's much like the Autopilot in a plane where you turn the Autopilot on in a plane but there's still some expectation that the pilot will pay attention to what the plane is doing and weren't sort of go to sleep or disappear from the cockpit. So we do want to set that expectation with consumers."

there's always been the argument/analogy that Tesla's autopilot is like an airplane's autopilot. He's on the record for saying this... right there in that transcript... and even stating: "So we do want to set that expectation with consumers"... But it's well known that flight crews do NOT keep their hands on the "wheel" while under autopilot.

so how the hell was the death of that guy in Florida NOT at least somewhat the responsibility of Tesla?... because he was told to leave his hands on the wheel?... I agree... he probably was... in the legal version of the story... but he was also told the Tesla marketing version of the story by Elon himself.

I sense more anger than point.

We do a lot of things as humans that defy logic. I enlisted in the army during the Vietnam war knowing full well I could die never having been laid ~ period. If I had died, should I have blamed you my fellow citizen? What about the guy that waited out the draft and his number never came up, or the coward that joined the reserves (during Vietnam no reserves were called up because during the Korean conflict the reserves were a joke and died proving it), or maybe the coward that had the balls to tell me a couple of years back that he used a chemical to increase his bood pressure (he was a pharmacist college student at the time) to avoid the draft. No, I signed up, my dad was silently pissed (afraid I would die), I knew I was a very good shot, I knew I would wake up at the slittiest sound, I believed it was my obligation (I do not shirk my responsibilities), and I needed the GI Bill to get thru college. Mom told me they were only paying for my sisters college since I was a boy and my sister needed a college degree to find a husband. What the. . .

Even if the driver was insane, he/she is still responsible for their decision(s). How do we know it was not deliberate on his part? When you sit in a car, buckle up, and you start the vehicle you are telling me you are intelligent enough, aware enough, and responsible enough (that's where insurance comes in) to drive a go cart, a BMW, a Lambigini or you name it.

Our MX got an update last night! Please note that even ten years from now I will be watching autopilot with my hands on the wheel, assuming I still have this MX and rely on updates to ensure my safety. I lived through the service without any safety related deaths. Truthfully, I came close a couple of times but it was my carelessness and not someone else's fault because I got caught up in the moment, nor was it due to equipment failure.

Just for the record, my son died in a ICE car fire '96. As of last year he has been gone longer than we enjoyed his life. While he was not the driver, he knew or should have known his girlfriend was under the influence; she took his life and two other boys that night. We did not sue, but we asked the judge to ensure part of her sentence included addiction recovery counseling and further education. This was not a get rich scheme on our part, we lost a love of our life. From time to time my wife and I try to out responsibility each other claiming it was more our (my fault vs her) fault and trying to pinpoint where we went wrong rather than blaming someone else. After all I was the soldier, not home a lot, very by the book, and stressed during his short life.

Are self driving cars the future ~ yes. How we get there is the question. Elon is on the cutting/bloody edge of technology and has a strong successful background pushing us as a society forward. God knows we have too damned many people pushing us backwards. Right now sadly one person has lost their life in the quest to achieve autonomous driving, and I hope that is the last, but the odds may not be so kind. Keep the care at or about the speed limit for the road, weather conditions, and be alert with your hands on the wheel at all times ~ anything new there over the last hundred years? Good, have a fun day driving your Tesla todayor other poor excuse of driving excellence:)

Can self driving fail ~ that is always a concern.

Will Elon/Tesla fail? If they fail, then I am doubtful anyone else will succeed for many years to come. Why? Look at who killed the electric car. If we as a society really, really, really do not want to succeed, we will fail. I for one want to succeed:) My whole life has been bent on succeeding:) What's in your life?
 
Caps will not make him understand. Nothing will. I just put myusername as first and only on my ignore list and would suggest everyone to do the same. He's obviously trolling, and he's not worth the effort.

no... they couldn't... that's my point. AP2 is not like autopilot in an airplane... Tesla Network is not reality and will not be. Tesla delivered 30 cars to employees and called it a "release"... flooded the "airwaves" with pumping headlines... got the cash... then radio silence... Tesla longs believe the story that is constantly proven false... shorts sit and wait... with jaws dropped that it's possible this has gone on this long.

Yes we can ... we note the increase of weird posts seemingly replying to unseen foes. And we can always show the blocked temporarily -- but that simply reaffirms why we blocked. A lot of wasted energy relitigating well known arguments. Sad.

But it's so entertaining to watch him/her try so, so very hard and fall so, so hard on his/her face.
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Why not consider **direct** evidence right in front of our eyes: Tesla Autopilot, deployed on the cars without Taj Mahals on the roofs and obscene protrusions all over the sides, is superior to anything deployed by anybody so far. I think when you question everything related to Tesla, while enthusiastically waving somebody's press release or amusing yourself with half baked pre-prototype systems, the conclusions are questionable (and that is an understatement). We have direct evidence that other companies are actively involved in deception and desperate attempts to manipulate public opinion to hide just how far behind they are. You are eating bs they feed to you.

On the contrary. Autopilot is a prime example of my theory : that Tesla's lead is vanishing. It's now August 2017 and AP2 is (depending on who you ask) about as good, or not even as good as AP1 was 12-15 months ago. Whatever lead Tesla has on AP over other manufacturers, it is 12-15 months shorter than the lead it had last year. And, given how long it took to replicate functionality for AP2, it is very plausible that the heavy lifting to get AP1 working was done by MobilEye software and not Tesla. But if so, that heavy lifting was also available to other manufacturers that work with MobilEye. So why didn't they release something similar to Autopilot then? Well, that is my second theory : Tesla has the advantage of a CEO that is willing to take a risk. Elon Musk will push something to the market were traditional manufacters tremble in their boots. Tesla's lead back in 2014 when they showed AP1 for the first time may not so much have been a technological lead but rather a lead in leadership. Elon Musk took MobilEye's offering and said we will use it to turn your steering wheel, whereas other manufacturers took that technology and used it to draw traffic lanes on your dashboard in green/yellow/red. Luckily that last lead, Tesla still has, but technologically, the most logical conclusion is that it is reducing.
 
Possibly true, but lack of release of video is proof of nothing.

I never claimed it was proof. But for a sublime marketeer that Elon Musk is, any lacking progress video is certainly circumstancial evidence.

EM can't win with you -- if he doesn't hedge you complain, and if he does, you do too.

He could win : by backing up his claim and showing the first features. That fact he doesn't is again circumstancial evidence.

Rather normal for the field ... compare to the others.

So, Tesla is no different than the others. I think that was the point I wanted to make.

Waste of our time.

That's a funny way of saying you have none.
 
On the contrary. Autopilot is a prime example of my theory : that Tesla's lead is vanishing. It's now August 2017 and AP2 is (depending on who you ask) about as good, or not even as good as AP1 was 12-15 months ago. Whatever lead Tesla has on AP over other manufacturers, it is 12-15 months shorter than the lead it had last year. And, given how long it took to replicate functionality for AP2, it is very plausible that the heavy lifting to get AP1 working was done by MobilEye software and not Tesla. But if so, that heavy lifting was also available to other manufacturers that work with MobilEye. So why didn't they release something similar to Autopilot then? Well, that is my second theory : Tesla has the advantage of a CEO that is willing to take a risk. Elon Musk will push something to the market were traditional manufacters tremble in their boots. Tesla's lead back in 2014 when they showed AP1 for the first time may not so much have been a technological lead but rather a lead in leadership. Elon Musk took MobilEye's offering and said we will use it to turn your steering wheel, whereas other manufacturers took that technology and used it to draw traffic lanes on your dashboard in green/yellow/red. Luckily that last lead, Tesla still has, but technologically, the most logical conclusion is that it is reducing.

You have a tendency to see everything about Tesla with extreme pessimism (wear dark glasses in the dead of the night) while being a exuberantly optimistic about any shiny object shown by the competition (wear bright rose glasses when sun is in zenith).

As far as your conclusion that there will be no step changes in functionality of AP, it is not a sound one (another understatement). Just prior to release in AP1 Tesla was hopelessly *behind* everybody else in ADAS, and then overnight, after the release of AP1 was suddenly ahead of everybody else. This step change will repeat itself with Level 3 autonomy, which, by the way, requires government oversight/approval before release.
 
On the contrary. Autopilot is a prime example of my theory : that Tesla's lead is vanishing. It's now August 2017 and AP2 is (depending on who you ask) about as good, or not even as good as AP1 was 12-15 months ago. Whatever lead Tesla has on AP over other manufacturers, it is 12-15 months shorter than the lead it had last year. And, given how long it took to replicate functionality for AP2, it is very plausible that the heavy lifting to get AP1 working was done by MobilEye software and not Tesla. But if so, that heavy lifting was also available to other manufacturers that work with MobilEye. So why didn't they release something similar to Autopilot then?

If Mobileye did the heavy lifting, then the performance of other EyeQ3 chip based ADAS systems is quite puzzling. Remember:

The War For Autonomous Driving: 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class VS. 2017 Tesla Model S

We really don't know how the EAP code we see today relates to the FSD code. Certainly parts of it are shared, but many parts are potentially not shared. And our view of the system may be very distorted. For example, to use software parlance, if the Autopilot team is working on the nightly branch of FSD code and testers are working off that branch, and what we get is a legacy branch of EAP for which they occasionally back/side port small parts, what we see in the released EAP code may be very far from the FSD code branch. And depending on the status of FSD branch, if the FSD branch is closer and closer to being ready, why spend too much time on EAP branch? Just AEB feature alone requires substantial additional work above and beyond FSD. And every time someone back/side ports FSD code/nets to EAP, there's likely a very large amount work to fit in the human interaction parts and then regression test.
 
I'm sure you're absolutely correct... in the whatever permutation of time you live in... but in this one... you're wrong.

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

In that transcript you provided above, the questioner asks about NHTSA levels. Tesla and automakers use the engineering standard: SAE levels.

This isn't the first time you've tried to falsely claim that Elon stating a lack of familiarity with NHTSA levels means he wasn't knowledgeable about self-driving technology.

I'm pretty sure you know that already but I just wanted to point it out for any members who may not.
 
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In that transcript you provided above, the questioner asks about NHTSA levels. Tesla and automakers use the engineering standard: SAE levels.

This isn't the first time you've tried to falsely claim that Elon stating a lack of familiarity with NHTSA levels means he wasn't knowledgeable about self-driving technology.

I'm pretty sure you know that already but I just wanted to point it out for any members who may not.

Let's all take it easy on myusername and mmd. Their bonuses are tied to the difference between SP and MaxPain.
 
You have a tendency to see everything about Tesla with extreme pessimism (wear dark glasses in the dead of the night) while being a exuberantly optimistic about any shiny object shown by the competition (wear bright rose glasses when sun is in zenith).

Maybe your evaluation of my point of view is more telling of your own biases than of mine? I certainly have no extreme pessimism surrounding Tesla. For example, I am on record here for predicting over 30k deliveries this quarter. I am on record as well for stating that Tesla has a lead in autonomy research. But merely stating that this lead is not as large as it was in 2015 is now enough to be branded an 'extreme pessimist'?

As far as your conclusion that there will be no step changes in functionality of AP, it is not a sound one (another understatement). Just prior to release in AP1 Tesla was hopelessly *behind* everybody else in ADAS, and then overnight, after the release of AP1 was suddenly ahead of everybody else. This step change will repeat itself with Level 3 autonomy, which, by the way, requires government oversight/approval before release.

Looking forward to be wrong about autonomy related Tesla things for once. I will be the first to give them praise. But in the interest of honestly : what (hypothetical) evolution would make you question Tesla's lead? When would you start to question internal progress?
 
You have a tendency to see everything about Tesla with extreme pessimism (wear dark glasses in the dead of the night) while being a exuberantly optimistic about any shiny object shown by the competition (wear bright rose glasses when sun is in zenith).

Would it be better if everyone did the opposite, just like most people already do? Doesn´t it make sense to question your own beliefs constantly? It think we should be thankful for people playing the devil´s advocate in a non offensive, informative way. I learn much more from the discussions coming out of that than from the constand background chatter that makes up too much of this forum IMHO.
 
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