2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Menifeer]

Is it okay if I repost this every time it breaks through the next $100 point? I'm sure the odds are with you, but I don't think you really understand what you are dealing with. Get your portal gun ready. Yeah not sure what that means either.

Certainly! Maybe we just understand things differently...

If you think I'm bearish, I'm not. I have long positions in stock and LEAPs. I expect the stock to have ups/downs as good/bad news arises and plan to make money selling short/medium-term calls to the true believers on the "up" days. So far it's worked. I don't expect TSLA to break the $400 barrier any time soon (if ever), but I won't be hurt if it does.

 

[zdriver]

If you think I'm bearish, I'm not.

[...]

I don't expect TSLA to break the $400 barrier any time soon (if ever)

Care to explain the latter in context of the former? Given future prospects, I would be very surprised if we never break $400.

 

[Menifeer]

Care to explain the latter in context of the former? Given future prospects, I would be very surprised if we never break $400.

Not bearish = I'm not one of those who expect Tesla shares to fall a lot. The true believers won't let that happen.

But in the high 300's, the short-sellers will come out in force. In my opinion, the mid-to-high 300's is the sweet spot. If/when the company ever becomes wildly profitable, the price would rise, but I don't expect that to happen any time soon given all the future expenses (Superchargers, Service Centers, new auto/truck factories, additional Gigafactories).

 

[JRP3]

But in the high 300's, the short-sellers will come out in force. In my opinion, the mid-to-high 300's is the sweet spot. If/when the company ever becomes wildly profitable, the price would rise, but I don't expect that to happen any time soon given all the future expenses (Superchargers, Service Centers, new auto/truck factories, additional Gigafactories).

Though we did come pretty close to $400 before any Model 3 production or Semi reveal. If the reveal is impressive and Model 3 production keeps picking up I could imagine $400 being broken.

 

[TrendTrader007]

not sure what TMC you've been visiting that's populated by "cautious longs", "pedestrian interpretations based on the phenomenon of recency", with singular exceptions.

for the most part I see a board of folks with core positions based on a studied long-term view, that enables them to quickly recognize the short-term moves as market irrationality largely fueled by a vast gibberish smear campaign aimed at Tesla.

I see the gibberish nonsense almost overwhelmingly immediately called out as bogus.

I see lots of people here adding trading shares at these low prices... and many others regretting they got ahead of themselves in loading to their limits at higher prices that has left them without any cash available to supersize their position at these prices.

I've hardly seen any actual TMC members at all becoming "guided by the last tick in the SP" other than to buy or wish they could.

don't get me wrong TT, I enjoy having you here, but, I just don't see the TMC investor section you seem to see.

You’re right. I apologize for painting everybody with the same brush. I do occasionally tend to make sweeping generalizations which are not accurate.
However, I do get the sense from at least a few prominent posts here that Tesla M3 ramp up is not going to be much different than MX or MS. They are Wrong. Totally. Time will tell but I totally believe that Elon musk is absolutely right on the money when he says that the ramp up of model 3 is going to be a stepped up exponential. It seems to me that some of the few prominent posters here have been extrapolating model three ramp in a linear fashion and putting forth quite a pessimistic point of view Supported by the rather dismal stock price performance over the last four weeks . For all you know that maybe about to change and today may have been the start of another uptrend we will see
all in all I basically agree with everything that you said. However I just don’t like Seeing dudes doubt EM’s projections and commitment.

 

[JRP3]

No one doubts his commitment. However reality has shown his projections to be wrong. He has already been proven to be wrong about the Model 3 production ramp.

 

[AlMc]

No one doubts his commitment. However reality has shown his projections to be wrong. He has already been proven to be wrong about the Model 3 production ramp.

Totally agree. The only good thing about another wrong projection is it brought the SP down just in time for J20 release. Being a cautious long, I have waited till the J20s came out and used some TSLA cash to add a few today. IMO, great risk/reward in them. Will continue to DCA into them until there is good evidence of production is 1k+/week, then put in the bulk of my TSLA money.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I personally am not interested in buying J 2020 calls
I fully expect the major SP appreciation to occur over the next 4 quarters followed by a major drop in SP in early 2020
Therefore my money is best placed in call options limited to J 2019
No sense in paying for time value when 2018 and 2019s will be the fast movers and not the 2020s
But then my view is not the majority since I probably belong to the rather small group of speculators who are margined in excess of 160% in stock only plus calls on top of that
Today was a good day

 

[TrendTrader007]

How about a SP of $1000 to $2000 by January 19

 

[bdy0627]

Certainly! Maybe we just understand things differently...

If you think I'm bearish, I'm not. I have long positions in stock and LEAPs. I expect the stock to have ups/downs as good/bad news arises and plan to make money selling short/medium-term calls to the true believers on the "up" days. So far it's worked. I don't expect TSLA to break the $400 barrier any time soon (if ever), but I won't be hurt if it does.

Hmmm. You appear to have things figured out but I would be pretty cautious over this next couple of years with that strategy. There is a decent chance you might get Spiegeled selling calls.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

No one doubts his commitment. However reality has shown his projections to be wrong. He has already been proven to be wrong about the Model 3 production ramp.

So Tesla missed by couple of weeks and Elon’s production ramp is proven wrong already? Aren’t we a little judgmental lately.

 

[3Victoria]

So Tesla missed by couple of weeks and Elon’s production ramp is proven wrong already? Aren’t we a little judgmental lately.

Yes, I agree. EM gave best case scenario. Even he said it was unlikely. He did say its production-hell. Isn't that what's happening?

 

[sundaymorning]

No one doubts his commitment. However reality has shown his projections to be wrong. He has already been proven to be wrong about the Model 3 production ramp.

He might be wrong on timing of this ramp but I hope he’s right about the “jet in vertical climb.” 1 for 2 is fine by me.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Thank you for sharing what you saw during the tour. Would you mind answering few questions:

• Did you have any indication during the tour that the operating Model 3 line was being tested ("bursts" of production producing cars which are then evaluated while the line is shut down until the next "burst") or operating in a steady state production?
• Did Model 3 line you saw operating was body-in-white line or the final assembly line?
• Did you get impression that the "bottleneck" **was** (past tense) resolved, or Tesla is close to solving the problem?

Thanks.

The tour passed a fully operating section of the Model 3 line before body-in-white: welding robots taking multiple stamped sheet metal parts and spot welding them to create Model 3 doors, hoods, etc. The field of robots were all busy doing their thing. The time we drove by was maybe a couple of minutes—way too short to take any conclusion whether it was a test or steady state. All I can tell is that I was so surprised to see the robots all working with hardly any factory worker standing around.

We did see many of the Model 3 stamped parts, as well as completed side bodies, doors, hoods, etc. staged throughout the factory. Seemed like enough parts for few hundred cars. That could have been a sign of a bottleneck somewhere. But then, it might not. It’s normal for those parts to be made in batches.

We spotted a good number of completed Model 3 chassi. Some with markings on them, mixed with Model X and S chassi as well. The door handle cut-out was the easy way you could distinguish a Model 3 from Model S.

It is not possible to take even a guess about the number of Model 3’s rolling off the line based on this factory tour—simply because we did not see the Model 3 final assembly.

The tour guide told us we were one of the first people who will have seen Model 3 line in action. He also explained there are currently three lines operating. Line one for S, two for X and three for Model 3. Line one will combine S and X production in the future, freeing up line two to be reconfigured as the second production line for Model 3.

 

[D-egg-O]

The tour passed a fully operating section of the Model 3 line before body-in-white: welding robots taking multiple stamped sheet metal parts and spot welding them to create Model 3 doors, hoods, etc. The field of robots were all busy doing their thing. The time we drove by was maybe a couple of minutes—way too short to take any conclusion whether it was a test or steady state. All I can tell is that I was so surprised to see the robots all working with hardly any factory worker standing around.

Not to downplay what you saw, but this is typical at any other OEM manufacturing facility.

 

[dennis]

He also explained there are currently three lines operating. Line one for S, two for X and three for Model 3. Line one will combine S and X production in the future, freeing up line two to be reconfigured as the second production line for Model 3.

Your tour guide must have been talking about the BIW lines since final assembly for S+X is done on one line.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I don’t think Elon is making things look more rosy then they are. He just doesn’t know. But I think the company is getting things under control. I had a factory tour last week and they showed us the Model 3 line. It was just amazing to see the density compared to Model S or Model X lines. Like a forest of the robots, all working. And the most amazing thing, fully automated—you could hardly see any workers.

The other thing that gave me a boost in confidence was from talking to the Tesla specialists at the reception after the tour. They had five guys available to answer questions, and while I expected they would be there to try to upsell you a Model S, they actually weren’t. They were asking me about my Model 3 reservation and very helpful in answering questions. They said the delivery estimates on the website were updated after management was confident that the production bottleneck issue was solved and they are now back on track with the ramp.

I’m getting pretty excited again about the prospect of getting my Model 3 in the March time frame.

Do you expect Tesla to achieve its stated target of 10k/w Model 3's by end-18?

 

[winfield100]

Care to explain the latter in context of the former? Given future prospects, I would be very surprised if we never break $400.

The magic of 2:1 or 3:2 stock splitz. (lordy, i remember AAPL and the 2:1, split, thrice (3 times), then the 7:1 !!! 2x2x2x7 = 56x
"I'm certainly not going to buy stock that costs me over $9,742/share, but i might buy some at "only" $170//share"
{(through the magic of time travel), both are the same}
(a tip of the hat to my EV club friend who refused to buy TSLA because it was "too high" at $70/share)

i intend for my children and grandchildren to be able to inherit TSLA shares so they can _only_ trade them for seats on the BFR as colonists to "elsewhere", Mars, Ceres, Luna, Ganymede
/back to lurk mode

 

[Tslynk67]

I see no similarities with the M3 ramp comparing to MX. Wasn’t it 7 MX they delivered in the first event in September 2015 and then basically nothing until the next year - or something like that?

M3 on the other hand appears to be in continuous production, albeit slower than desired. Totally different IMO.

 

[AlMc]

I personally am not interested in buying J 2020 calls
I fully expect the major SP appreciation to occur over the next 4 quarters followed by a major drop in SP in early 2020
Therefore my money is best placed in call options limited to J 2019
No sense in paying for time value when 2018 and 2019s will be the fast movers and not the 2020s
But then my view is not the majority since I probably belong to the rather small group of speculators who are margined in excess of 160% in stock only plus calls on top of that
Today was a good day

I think anyone who spends any time on these investor forums realizes, or should have realized, that we have quite different opinions on how one should employ their money in TSLA determined by our risk/reward comfort level. All of us come here with our own, often very different, frames of reference.

Most of our disagreement is on the speed of price appreciation of TSLA and price targets. I absolutely hope you are correct and I am wrong on these projections.

What we do agree on is that the SP will be higher and provide both of us with a nice ROI.