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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Yay
!If you wait it will definitely go through if you sell at the market.
You can probably set up the sale to be “sell at the market at the close “ but you should check with your broker. TD automatically buys shares shares with options expiring ITM. So make sure that you can do what you want to do.
But I would not do that unless you believe that the SP will be at its highest level at the close on Friday. For example it’s a triple witching expiration day and max-pain might impact the prices.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Tesla shot up these two days is due to the new of PepsiCo ordered 100 Semi trucks. Tesla's production line is still in the same condition or situation as a few months ago.. still very messy, slow, alot of problems
OK, myusername, thanks for admitting that you were totally wrong when claiming that Powerpack was "not real".
Regarding revenue, the revenue from Powerpacks is $250/kwh (the advertised bulk price) times *as much as they can manufacture*; they are blatantly production-limited. Do I currently know what the bottlenecks are or how fast they can ramp up? I do not. If there is a major delay in ramp-up of more than two years, could they lose market share? Yes, but in the meantime, everyone else (all in China) is having trouble ramping up to meet demand too. It seems to be easier to ramp up Powerpack than to ramp up cars... fewer parts, less service. Demand is monumental, though the reasons for this are a whole 'nother essay.
I'm guessing 10% gross margins on the business (obviously Musk wants higher margins) and if they come anywhere close to the planned Gigafactory production levels by 2020, it still comes out to a lot of money. You can do the math yourself and run different models based on different assumptions. Treating it as "zero" is nonsense.
what I am saying is that the PowerPack and PowerWall or Tesla Energy is not a real business at this time. it does not generate revenue of any significance. we were told 2.5 years ago that it would produce GREATER THAN 2 BILLION in 2017.
and you are calling this "production limited"?... that's not what 2.5 years late equates to. it equates to -- it was an idea -- the stock was dropping and after they made the declaration of Tesla Energy as a new business line, the stock shot up again that then lead to a capital raise 3 months later.
and here we are... no Tesla Energy revenues to speak of, an elevated stock and a company that would not have been able to continue without the story that was told 2.5 years ago.
and you're hammering on me because why?... these are FACTS... what I just stated is exactly how it went down. so what is your argument exactly?
Reciprocity
Active Member
It matters because its the same guy making the promises. It also matters because Elon had never launched a rocket or worked in the aerospace industry before founding SpaceX. It matters because Elon and his companies are whatever he wants them to be because he has the force of will to make it happen. Part of the Elon process it over promise. Think about it from this point.. If you are the hottest engineer in a hot industry, do you want to work for the moon shot company or tried and true industrial company. The more I think about it, the over promising is really just a recruiting tool. At the end of the day, Tesla is nothing without the people who work there. Really, Tesla is nothing without Elon inspiring/challenging them and that includes us investors. There are many people on this forum that never made a nickle until investing in Tesla and that is why you are right and it is a story stock as you like to call it. The problem with your theory, is that its a true story. Its one of the amazing true stories that actually is amazing and awe inspiring. I know you will not be convinced because you are either insanely stubborn, dumb (which I know you are not) or a paid shill. I can see the first one.. but more then likely the last, because you are clearly not dumb.
I would never suggest someone to go out and try to have a company that is completely vertically integrated from Energy production, storage to consumption, I would advise them to focus on one thing that dominate it. In this case, I would have been wrong. No one else was going to do it if Tesla didnt and they would fail without all the pieces in place. Elon couldnt let Solar city fail because he needs a few terawatts of solar panels/tiles to meet his goals. Elon couldnt for go building the gigafactory because its required to secure the battery supplies and Solar has one huge weakness, it doesnt work in the dark. If you own an Electric car, your electric bill goes through the roof, I think mine would have doubled, but I bought solar instead. This stuff is all really simple when you think about it. I dont need a powerwall because I have net metering but it certainly would have been an option if I didnt.
Tesla isn't priced as 10 companies in 1. If it were, the price would be well into the thousands. It is priced on what they have achieved plus the weighted probability expectations of what they will achieve. And if Tesla is to be valued as 10 companies in q then investors are not yet putting a high probability on success.
stop talking about rockets when my entire point is that Tesla is an auto company and it will be valued like one. why would you argue this with stories about rockets?
Chanos piling on, thinks Elon will leave in 2020 so now is a good time to short more
That was yours truly
The above quotes are in time sequence beginning four weeks ago and ending yesterday.
I suspect that GoTslaGo was referring to this: 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action
@Waiting4M3 - Great minds think alike.
Of course that's not to include Spiegel, Chanos and Brinkman.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Except he only paid $65 per option and they are currently worth over $860 each. So it seems to me that depending on what he believes that the sp will do in the interim might have a higher priority than normal. Maybe if he believes that the SP is going higher he could sell two now for an over 100% gain and set a trailing stop on the remaining contracts?
Powerpack/powerwall I admit not so prevalent in the US RIGHT NOW but seems to be a steady state of installs in markets that have immediate ROI like Australia. Solar roof should pick up in 2018 now that GF2 is set to start operating by EOY.
Chipmaking to me is a lofty goal once again which eventually I think they can accomplish. Take parallels from SpacEx. From a first principles standpoint, they did not accept simply what was but rather carved out a process on how to launch and deploy payloads in space at a cost orders of magnitude lesser than incumbents. It's the same DNA that runs within Tesla. You are free not to believe so.
and what is it that you expect they will achieve?... what I expect they will achieve is becoming an auto company that sells somewhere in the range of 250k/yr to 750k/yr within the next 5 years. do you expect they will become more than this?... do you think they'll sell more cars... or do you think they'll become 10 companies in 1?... if you think it's simply more cars... how many? every auto company's valuation combined is less than many people's targets for Tesla... so how many cars do you think they're going to sell?
I think I know what your problem is, myusername. Your thinking is too "financialized". You know, there's a real company under there, with factories (bricks and mortar), manufacturing equipment, employees, etc. etc. You seem to think that a wand can be waved to create a manufacturing business, or that construction of a production line can be done predictably and on schedule like ordering a book off Amazon.com. No -- it's actually work, hard, risky work. Tesla's been working on it. They're always later than Elon thinks they'll be, and they do have problems with doing it.
If you don't look at the actual details of the manufacturing process and the process of building the factories, you will never understand what's going on. You will never be able to see what the fundamental difference between Tesla and Faraday Future was, because it doesn't appear in the numbers, it appears on the ground. You only see that they haven't shipped that many batteries yet. We see that they are dealing with hiring issues at the Panasonic side of the Gigafactory, badly programmed machines, problems with equipment due to power quality fluctuations... if you were able to take an engineering perspective you'd be able to see what was going on.
Taking an engineering perspective and looking at it from a ground-up perspective, it becomes possible to tell whether current problems will be persistent or not. Reasonable people can disagree on which problems will be persistent and which will not, and on what effect that will have. But you apparently can't even see that there's a bureaucracy with employees, a factory with machines, etc. -- you're not doing the analysis on that level.
Consider this hypothetical. If you knew that the only thing preventing Tesla from selling a million Powerpacks a year was a problem with the melters which could be fixed by installing a Powerpack buffer for the electricity supply, would that change your valuation? You're not even *looking* at such things, so you can't see it.
If you don't look at the actual details of the manufacturing process and the process of building the factories, you will never understand what's going on. You will never be able to see what the fundamental difference between Tesla and Faraday Future was, because it doesn't appear in the numbers, it appears on the ground. You only see that they haven't shipped that many batteries yet. We see that they are dealing with hiring issues at the Panasonic side of the Gigafactory, badly programmed machines, problems with equipment due to power quality fluctuations... if you were able to take an engineering perspective you'd be able to see what was going on.
Taking an engineering perspective and looking at it from a ground-up perspective, it becomes possible to tell whether current problems will be persistent or not. Reasonable people can disagree on which problems will be persistent and which will not, and on what effect that will have. But you apparently can't even see that there's a bureaucracy with employees, a factory with machines, etc. -- you're not doing the analysis on that level.
Consider this hypothetical. If you knew that the only thing preventing Tesla from selling a million Powerpacks a year was a problem with the melters which could be fixed by installing a Powerpack buffer for the electricity supply, would that change your valuation? You're not even *looking* at such things, so you can't see it.
Reciprocity
Active Member
This is why shorts are short. It should not be possible. This is why I used the SpaceX example. Which is harder? I think SpaceX has a smaller number very difficult tasks to achieve their goals. Where as Tesla has a lot more smaller problems to solve. What I think makes it all work is Elon and his moonshot aspirational goals. The more I think about the more I think its a big recruiting tool. Think about it. If Elon says, "FSD in two years, guaranteed!" and I am some young badarse engineer, then im putting in my resume. I want to be near that action, even if I know its going to be a pressure cooker. Compare that to GM saying they are going to have 500 bolt taxi cabs on the roads in 2 years. SpaceX and everything else Elon does is the same. If you think about it, a company is just a bunch of people and a mission with some financial backing. Elon brings the last two. He as always been able to raise money. But he cant force people to work and work hard. He must inspire.
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Anyone use "wechat"? It's an app by Tencent, very convenient to share ideas and images. Let me know if you are interested. I might start a wechat group.
Electrifying
Member
Hmm knowing Tencent is a company from a country with a history of the worst Internet censorship, I would give a second thought about this idea.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Why? Anyone who wants to trade based on my joking comments is probably going to lose.
I don’t have bad feelings towards anyone. The only losers I prefer to lose is the big institutions that are holding
Another reason to like calls is that I’m forcing institutions to buy a lot more shares than I could afford to buy.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Well.. Yes. Its the first 500,000 that will be the problem. Once they can build that many, its all cookie cutter and optimization/tweeking from there. Well that and funding.
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