There's those dreaded month based predictions again... couple versus 3-6. Sigh.
Sounds to me like we are lightyears away from EAP and whole parallel universes away from FSD then.
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2018.21 0fa48d9
- Thread starter battleroyale
- Start date
Sounds to me like we are lightyears away from EAP and whole parallel universes away from FSD then.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Come on now! Elon said he is using the on-off ramp exit feature now in his car. So clearly, we are not "light years away" from EAP.
Hey if it makes you feel any better, at least y'all have "idiot summon" on the S & X, we don't even have that on the 3 yet. Have to contort myself and get in/out of the car in the garage like some kind of peasant
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Sadly, autopilot predictions go directly into the bitbucket for me these days. Too many occurences of "next version will be X" and "coming soon is the ability to Y" that have taken far longer and didn't match the prediction in terms of capability. Including repeated use of that very statement of "major improvements coming in the next few months". It holds absolutely no weight to me. Don't get me wrong, I use AP frequently on the highway and I do find it useful. But it falls short of my current expectations and Tesla's predictions. What I want to see right now is less talking and more doing.
Tesla in 2016: Your car will do what your AP1 test drive vehicle does at delivery.
On Delivery (dec 23, 2016): Don't worry, Elon said no later than Dec 31 2016.
Yea, he really has a great track record.
3 months, maybe. 6 months definitely.
DEFINITELY and it hasn't even come close. That was like 17 months ago.
On Delivery (dec 23, 2016): Don't worry, Elon said no later than Dec 31 2016.
Yea, he really has a great track record.
3 months, maybe. 6 months definitely.
DEFINITELY and it hasn't even come close. That was like 17 months ago.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Yeah, but since two brain dead episodes where nothing worked after 18.12, I don’t trust using summon to pull into my garage, so I feel your pain.Hey if it makes you feel any better, at least y'all have "idiot summon" on the S & X, we don't even have that on the 3 yet. Have to contort myself and get in/out of the car in the garage like some kind of peasant
Pro tip: Leave the window open as it’s easier to squeeze in.
d21mike
Active Member
I wonder how many of us will get the release coming out this week which I assume 2018.22. I would love to get it but until we can "request the update" (like he said a while back on twitter) I am not counting on it. I am still on 2018.16 which is better then some.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
We all know the history of Elon's predictions. But do you want to sulk about past failures or do you want to look to the future as autopilot continues to improve with each update?
Ah but he didn't say which of his cars he was using it on. It could well be his old roadster which is on its way to being light years away...
d21mike
Active Member
I read this on another site site (financial) where they mention your quote but added a bit more. With the other comments about on/off ramp this is hopeful.
Tesla plans to rollout an Autopilot update later this week, a program mired in controversy as of late. The progress here has been "very, very rapid," Musk said, adding that reliability and capability are improving quite quickly.
Both. A degree of realism and sarcasm goes a long way towards feeling better about this situation.
d21mike
Active Member
I'm not sulking but I'm also not delusional to believe anything Elon says. He may call himself optimistic but he's delusional if he says 6 months definitely and only crickets follow for nearly 18 months later and he doesn't have the stones to face his customers with more detailed explanation and a planned feature roadmap.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I guess I see things differently. Yes, Musk has missed deadlines but he does eventually deliver the goods. Autopilot progress has been slow but it has made progress. At some point, we will get new autopilot features and at some point in the future, we will even get FSD. And despite being late, when they do arrive, they will be really cool.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Here is likely glimpse of the future:I want to "look to the future"
It's 2020. Google/Waymo has a fleet of 50K-100K autonomous cars on the road. Elon announces new AP4.0 with second generation Tesla chip capable of FSD, after all the software validation and government approval of course, which is impossible to predict when. During an investor call someone asks about AP2 customers, Elon says "Booooring.... Next!". Tesla releases a statement how AP2 is fully capable of FSD but limited by lack of sensors, required redundancy of sensors and controls, and computing power - but otherwise all capable. They get sued in Europe and settle. Fanboys come to defence "Elon never said the car will actually ever drive itself, only that car is capable, which it is". Sound familiar? That's because it already happened with a different feature once.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
The idea of Waymo having a fleet of 50K-100K self-driving cars in 2020 is totally absurd. Their whole business model is ride-sharing. Waymo will have maybe 1000 self-driving cars by 2020 spread out in major US cities, not 100K.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Interesting. I can admit that I was wrong on this.
