+1 - IMO, noone really knows outside of Tesla. There is some good logic behind a change in the October-November timeframe, though, IMO. I can think of a few things that hint at this:
- History - it would be fairly similar timing to the small updates for the 3 last year
- Battery day - I wouldn't expect world changing things here, but any small capacity improvements could get announced there. If so, they are probably already in production for at least a week or two before announcement.
- The new casting machine and potentially a slight decrease in weight
- The launch of 3rd row and recent hints at this launching in Q4 instead of next year
- The (much) anticipated RWD launch in Q4
I'd also add that people here tend to underestimate the importance of the changeover in years. Look at used prices and you'll see a definite break from one model year to the other, so it definitely matters. And unlike with other car companies, you don't get to mitigate this by negotiating a great deal on the outgoing model year, so it can be worth it to wait a little longer.
All, just IMO, of course.