300-plus kW inverter for M3 -- implies MS equivalent performance

[Red Sage]

In my opinion, Model 3 ludicrous will NOT be as fast as Model S ludicrous. There is no way Tesla would allow a much cheaper product to outperform their flagship, this is basically business 101.

A lot of other guys have already told you, but I'd might as well do so as well. The BMW 3-Series outsells every other premium sedan in the entire world. Not some, not half, but every single one of them. Those companies that have offered direct competitors to the 3-Series, without putting Performance at the forefront, have gotten their arses handed to them on a platter for over three decades.

Let's take Lexus as an example, shall we? Until they unveiled their F-Sport series of cars, the Lexus LS marque flagship vehicle was their sacred cow -- nothing in their product line was allowed to approach its Performance. Result? The sport-y look-ing Lexus IS cars got their butts handed to them by a bargemobile in the same product lineup. And, sales of the IS paled in comparison to the 3-Series. Heck, the Lexus ES, a rebranded Toyota Camry/Avalon, outsells the IS too (and still lost to the 3-Series by around 30,000 units)!

Meanwhile? The BMW 3-Series used to use the same engines as the 5-Series and 7-Series... Up to a point. No 12-cylinder or 8-cylinder motors were allowed in the 3-Series. Not that it mattered too much. The inline-4 and inline-6 motors used in the 3-Series outperformed both their counterparts, and alternate drivetrains of 5-Series and 7-Series -- for a whole bunch less money.

Business 101 tells us that BMW's strategy of NOT protecting their flagship vehicle from their mass market vehicle works like gangbusters. Tesla Motors employs smart people who have noticed that fact. So, no... The Model S will not be 'protected' in any fashion from the Model ☰. People who want a larger vehicle, with more storage capacity, will get a Model S instead of a Model ☰, and that's just fine. Keep in mind that when the Model S was launched, Elon Musk thought that they might be able to manage in the neighborhood of 15,000 to 20,000 units per year, worldwide. By the first half of 2013, he was projecting annual sales of their third generation vehicle would reach 500,000 units by 2020. So, three years before the unveiling of the Model ☰ he was laying the framework for outselling the Model S by anything from 25:1 to 33:1. It turned out the Model S was much more popular than he had hoped, so it may 'only' be a ratio of around 8:1 or 10:1 instead once Model ☰ is on the road. For the sake of comparison, during 2015 the BMW 7-Series was outsold by a 10.2:1 ratio by the 3-Series.

At the 15,000 unit per annum goal for Model S, Tesla Motors would have sold seven years worth of cars through the first three-and-a-half years of its Production. There is no reason whatsoever to 'protect' that car from its younger sibling. The Model S is an unmitigated hit, and has outsold AUDI A8, BMW 7-Series, and Porsche Panamera three calendar years straight in the US. And yes, it is leading them all again this year (along with Mercedes-Benz S-Class), with no end in sight.

 

[WarpedOne]

Business 101 says that if you don't do everything that is possible, somebody else will.
If tesla 'bureaucratically' holds back M3, some other company should, must and will offer a direct competitor with better performance.
If one does not cannibalize himself, others will eat his lunch.

No V12 or V8 in 3-series have some techincal reasoning behind, space and weight distribution etc.

 

[FlatSix911]

Red, Good points regarding the BMW marketing strategy. As a counter point, consider Porsche.
They keep a strict performance hierarchy in their sports car lineup ... Boxster/Cayman/911.

 

[Red Sage]

No V12 or V8 in 3-series have some techincal reasoning behind, space and weight distribution etc.

Yeah, well, that, and... Originally, BMW didn't have any V8s or V12s on offer. So, x18i, x20i, x25i, x28i, x35i were all using the exact same engines whether dropped in a 3-Series, 5-Series, or 7-Series. They might be tuned slightly different from each other, or the gearing might be more aggressive from one to the other, but when it came to bore, stroke, displacement, etc... Same thing.

Red, Good points regarding the BMW marketing strategy. As a counter point, consider Porsche.
They keep a strict performance hierarchy in their sports car lineup ... Boxster/Cayman/911.

The Boxster and Cayman are basically the same car in different skin. Combined they outsell the Panamera. I have no idea why the 911 exists. And all of those are outsold by the gawdawful ugly Macan and Cayenne. And none of those cars seem to be able to outsell anything from BMW they compete against.

Porsche is only considered 'successful' because they haven't disappeared entirely as a marque. But if not for the SUVs they offer, Porsche's sales as a whole would be even more insignificant than traditional automobile manufactures consider Tesla Motors. As a brand, Porsche sold only 51,576 vehicles in the US during 2015 (less than Scion, and Toyota pulled the plug on that marque). And of those, 30,007 units were the two SUVs, which amounted to 58.1% of their sales. Without the SUVs, they sold only 21,569 cars, of which 9,898 were the 911 somehow. Tesla Motors will surpass Porsche in sales this year, and likely every year thereafter.

How long before Volkswagen Group decides to pull the plug, give up the ghost, and cut their losses...? Well, luckily there are no real losses because Porsche has very healthy margins on the rattletraps they sell. [FOUL] Porsche.

 

[FlatSix911]

The Boxster and Cayman are basically the same car in different skin. Combined they outsell the Panamera. I have no idea why the 911 exists. And all of those are outsold by the gawdawful ugly Macan and Cayenne. And none of those cars seem to be able to outsell anything from BMW they compete against.

Porsche is only considered 'successful' because they haven't disappeared entirely as a marque. But if not for the SUVs they offer, Porsche's sales as a whole would be even more insignificant than traditional automobile manufactures consider Tesla Motors. As a brand, Porsche sold only 51,576 vehicles in the US during 2015 (less than Scion, and Toyota pulled the plug on that marque). And of those, 30,007 units were the two SUVs, which amounted to 58.1% of their sales. Without the SUVs, they sold only 21,569 cars, of which 9,898 were the 911 somehow. Tesla Motors will surpass Porsche in sales this year, and likely every year thereafter.

How long before Volkswagen Group decides to pull the plug, give up the ghost, and cut their losses...? Well, luckily there are no real losses because Porsche has very healthy margins on the rattletraps they sell. [FOUL] Porsche.

Agreed...and yet they are the most profitable Automobile producer world wide
Thank God they are helping to keep VW group alive until they go full electric!

 

[juanmedina]

Agreed...and yet they are the most profitable Automobile producer world wide
Thank God they are helping to keep VW group alive until they go full electric!

The cheaper Cayman is faster than the higher priced boxer. The Porsche Cayman GT4 is faster around the track than all the boxer variants and most 911 variants and even close to the top of the line 911 GT3.

I really fail for see how you can compare Porsche sports cars with Tesla sedans. The 3 series BMW is the direct benchmark for the Model 3 so that is why is a better comparison.

 

[Jayc]

I really fail for see how you can compare Porsche sports cars with Tesla sedans. The 3 series BMW is the direct benchmark for the Model 3 so that is why is a better comparison.

Now this is where the problem lies... People who buy Porsche and other similar cars like to drive them in normal roads. I know because I happen to know a few even though I don't have one myself. Now go for a ride with them to the town for lunch and they'd tell you how quick it accelerates and they will not miss the opportunity to push hard on 30mph or 50 mph roads. Its that idea that these cars rule the road and that they can never be beaten.

What Tesla has done is totally dismantled that macho image. A seemingly understated family saloon can now outrun a porsche on daily driving. It really doesn't matter how well they will do in a track. That infallibility has been damaged forever to the point that most porsche owners now point out why only track performance matters to them when in reality most never take their cars to the track.

So I can tell you it IS the same market we are talking about, most people don't want to admit that. In fact, wait another 10 years and see what becomes of most supercar brands.

 

[Model 3]

So I can tell you it IS the same market we are talking about, most people don't want to admit that. In fact, wait another 10 years and see what becomes of most supercar brands.

No, they are not in the same marked segment. What you see is that Tesla is "breaking the rules" and draws customers from a lot of different marked segments. Yes, they define the "premium sedan" segment as the segment Model S and Model 3 will compete in, but as you say, it also draws customers from the "sport car"/"Porsche" segment, and people like me that do not care a bit about "premium" or "performance", but just wants a mid- to long-range BEV. (But yes, I will not mind it a bit if it happens to be sort of quick anyway )

 

[juanmedina]

So I can tell you it IS the same market we are talking about, most people don't want to admit that. In fact, wait another 10 years and see what becomes of most supercar brands.

No way... When you are shopping family sedan I don't you will ever consider a two seater sports car

 

[Jersey Shore Tom]

Would you be willing to consider the time factor also?

Do you think Tesla would be willing to say that their newest technology is slower and less powerful than their older technology?

While I suppose Tesla could say that and explain that the new technology was designed for a smaller, less expensive car, I don't see much evidence that that is what is happening. I think that the report that Tesla is using an inverter in the Model 3 that is as capable as that in the Model S is evidence that they are not doing that. In fact, it may be evidence that @Red Sage is correct and the Model 3 will measurably outperform the Model S. I say this because a small lighter car with better cd and smaller wheels should require less power to match the performance of the bigger car.

 

[zenmaster]

Now this is where the problem lies... People who buy Porsche and other similar cars like to drive them in normal roads. I know because I happen to know a few even though I don't have one myself. Now go for a ride with them to the town for lunch and they'd tell you how quick it accelerates and they will not miss the opportunity to push hard on 30mph or 50 mph roads. Its that idea that these cars rule the road and that they can never be beaten.

What Tesla has done is totally dismantled that macho image. A seemingly understated family saloon can now outrun a porsche on daily driving. It really doesn't matter how well they will do in a track. That infallibility has been damaged forever to the point that most porsche owners now point out why only track performance matters to them when in reality most never take their cars to the track.

So I can tell you it IS the same market we are talking about, most people don't want to admit that. In fact, wait another 10 years and see what becomes of most supercar brands.

Any car is going to have a myriad of functionality and ability dynamically expressing itself to the driver which together forms an emotional impression. Most sports car buyers are actually looking for this stuff - so it's not your absurdly reduced idea at all. You obviously are not a sports car enthusuiast, otherwise you'd be talking from experience when relating the actual market of sports car buyers.

Porsche and other sports car manufacturers build fun, lightweight cars that actually connect driver to the road in an engaging, inspiring manner - at speed. A completely different experience is necessarily provided from a larger, heavier, long-wheelbase, road dampening car.

A sports car's appeal is not merely some abstract concept of one performance metric, such as straight line acceleration (your idea of 'macho'), but rather the much more holistic experience from driving, including steering-road feedback, feel and handling through turns, braking performance. A good sports car is going to engender confidence and exhilaration from a lot of different driving actions. What you are ignoring is how the car pairs with the driver to engage with the road as a fluid, agile interaction. That is what actually sells most sports cars and coincidentally, what sports car manufacturers have kept improving. The future of transport may belong to the EV, but the horizon is perhaps 5-10 years out for a sports car competitive EV.

Whether or not such an electric sports car will be made by Tesla is unclear as they aren't in that particular business. They still need to create a base revenue from their mass produced cars to fund a competitive sports car.

 

[Garlan Garner]

While I suppose Tesla could say that and explain that the new technology was designed for a smaller, less expensive car, I don't see much evidence that that is what is happening. I think that the report that Tesla is using an inverter in the Model 3 that is as capable as that in the Model S is evidence that they are not doing that. In fact, it may be evidence that @Red Sage is correct and the Model 3 will measurably outperform the Model S. I say this because a small lighter car with better cd and smaller wheels should require less power to match the performance of the bigger car.

I'm with you all the way. I believe the M3 will out pace the MS in performance - simply because it will have newer technology ( inverter/batteries ). I don't think Tesla has a quest to may the M3 better - It just that Teslas ideas and parts are improving and being more efficient.
I would hope that every iteration of Tesla is going to be better than the previous.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It has been said that people only drive their cars 3% of the time that they are awake during their lifetime.

If the new inverters and more powerful batteries come to fruition...I'm going to easily push that number to 6% during my lifetime. I'll be taking the "long" way home from now on.

 

[Alketi]

I'm with you all the way. I believe the M3 will out pace the MS in performance - simply because it will have newer technology ( inverter/batteries ).

What makes you think the Model S won't get both of these before the Model 3? In fact, Elon has already stated that the Model S will always be first to get the latest technology as the flagship sedan.

New inverters, batteries, motors, and autopilot hardware will begin shipping in the S/X as soon as they're ready for prime time, which I would imagine would be within 6 months. The 3 will get them when it finally ships.

 

[Garlan Garner]

What makes you think the Model S won't get both of these before the Model 3? In fact, Elon has already stated that the Model S will always be first to get the latest technology as the flagship sedan.

New inverters, batteries, motors, and autopilot hardware will begin shipping in the S/X as soon as they're ready for prime time, which I would imagine would be within 6 months. The 3 will get them when it finally ships.

Maybe Elon mis spoke, but I thought he made the statement that I made.

"The M3 will be a total redesign from the ground up with technology not seen on any of our other cars."

That was his quote not mine.

 

[Jayc]

No way... When you are shopping family sedan I don't you will ever consider a two seater sports car

Actually, you've got it the wrong way round.

And most people get it wrong on this one... its not about market segment or handling or track performance or being connected to the road. We are talking about the demography of people getting expensive sports cars just for that feeling of being king on the road. Well guess what... TRex is reborn as Tesla

I said wait 10 years and see. Actually the revolution has already started:
Tesla unseats Porsche as ideal brand with intuitive technology: report - Luxury Daily - Automotive

 

[zenmaster]

And most people get it wrong on this one... its not about market segment or handling or track performance or being connected to the road. We are talking about the demography of people getting expensive sports cars just for that feeling of being king on the road. Well guess what... TRex is reborn as Tesla

Sports car buyers represent less than 10% of the market and of that survey. Therefore the survey impressions can't be representative of sports car buyers. Statistics 101.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Sports car buyers represent less than 10% of the market and of that survey. Therefore the survey impressions can't be representative of sports car buyers. Statistics 101.

I wonder what the survey would look like if the "performance' of sports cars was cheaper...ie M3.

The M3 is going to throw surveys into a bucket of nonsensical wastes of time....just like the M6 has.

 

[Red Sage]

Porsche and other sports car manufacturers build fun, lightweight cars that actually connect driver to the road in an engaging, inspiring manner - at speed. A completely different experience is necessarily provided from a larger, heavier, long-wheelbase, road dampening car.

I have long railed against the notion that Porsche builds 'sports cars', because to me, that bookshelf behind the front seats, apparently designed for toddlers or double amputees, disqualifies the 911. To me, a sports car only has two seats. Also, the notion that Porsche cars are 'lightweight' is rather unfair, as they have been getting heavier and heavier over the past 25 years. The race-prepped version of their cars are lightweight, but not the street cars. That is, a lightweight car should be under 2,800 lbs or so, in my opinion. But this is likely just my personal angst, due to the fact I've always hated how automobile magazines have claimed the Chevrolet Corvette was 'too heavy', even when its curb weight was the same, or less than, a Porsche in a comparison test. Or how a Mercedes-Benz SL is lauded for its handling solidity that inspires confidence when it is a two seater that outweighs a Corvette by 700 lbs... The inherent journalistic bias in favor of German brands is a real pain.

The future of transport may belong to the EV, but the horizon is perhaps 5-10 years out for a sports car competitive EV.

Oh? Welcome to 2008.

And 2010...

And 2013...

Whether or not such an electric sports car will be made by Tesla is unclear as they aren't in that particular business. They still need to create a base revenue from their mass produced cars to fund a competitive sports car.

No. Tesla Motors is not the same as traditional automobile manufacturers. Those companies use their mass market cars to finance the release of their high end cars. Tesla Motors has done the opposite. Their first car was the Tesla Roadster, a low volume high end two seat sports car. They could have easily kept making sports cars and nothing else, for another 15 or 20 years as a niche manufacturer of 'Toys... for the RICH!' But that was not the goal.

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

 

[Red Sage]

What makes you think the Model S won't get both of these before the Model 3? In fact, Elon has already stated that the Model S will always be first to get the latest technology as the flagship sedan.

New inverters, batteries, motors, and autopilot hardware will begin shipping in the S/X as soon as they're ready for prime time, which I would imagine would be within 6 months. The 3 will get them when it finally ships.

Mmmm... I got the impression that statement from Elon was in regard to the 'bells and whistles'... Luxury items and feature sets... Not the drive technology. He has been clear that there must be a specific delineation between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation technologies. In order for a Model S or Model X to get the 'latest technology' before the release of Model ☰, Tesla Motors would have to release version 2.0 of both those vehicles using Generation III technology throughout. I doubt that will happen. Because the Model S and Model X are Generation II vehicles with perhaps an eight year product cycle. So there probably won't be an 'all new' Model S 2.0 until 2020. Sure, the cars will continue to be improved over the next three or four years, and more. That's just how Tesla Motors does things. But the upgrade path for Generation II vehicles will be different than that of Generation III cars.