3rd Reveal

[dsvick]

I'm thinking 3rd reveal at the end of March. Design Studio live in early April, giving suppliers an idea of what parts and how many of them they need to show up with on July 1st. Production for Tesla and Space X employees starts up right away. And by the start of Q4, Tesla is up and running getting through as many of the local area, current owner, well-optioned orders as they can, and Q1 2018 is when most of us in the US should expect our vehicles.

But again....we're all just on here guessing.

I'm still hoping that Elon's tweet about all the pre-reveal reservations being filled before the end of the year holds up .....

 

[ktrivedi70]

I'm thinking 3rd reveal at the end of March. Design Studio live in early April, giving suppliers an idea of what parts and how many of them they need to show up with on July 1st. Production for Tesla and Space X employees starts up right away. And by the start of Q4, Tesla is up and running getting through as many of the local area, current owner, well-optioned orders as they can, and Q1 2018 is when most of us in the US should expect our vehicles.

But again....we're all just on here guessing.

I wonder if they might open the design studio the same night they do part 3 of the reveal. If there's something supercool in that Part 3, it may be worth cashing in on that excitement and momentum by having people design their car the same night. Yes, some may backtrack and downgrade, but many won't. Plus, the more lead time they have, the more likely they are to have the proper parts ready.

 

[dsvick]

I wonder if they might open the design studio the same night they do part 3 of the reveal. If there's something supercool in that Part 3, it may be worth cashing in on that excitement and momentum by having people design their car the same night. Yes, some may backtrack and downgrade, but many won't. Plus, the more lead time they have, the more likely they are to have the proper parts ready.

They may open it up to allow people to play with it, but they won't be able to "cash in" or make plans from it until people actually begin confirming their orders. And you can't confirm your order until they invite you to which won't be all at once, it'll be in groups starting with employees, then early reservation holders on the West coast then moving East. Once they start getting confirmations they may be able to build up more inventory of options that are more popular.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

They may open it up to allow people to play with it, but they won't be able to "cash in" or make plans from it until people actually begin confirming their orders. And you can't confirm your order until they invite you to which won't be all at once, it'll be in groups starting with employees, then early reservation holders on the West coast then moving East. Once they start getting confirmations they may be able to build up more inventory of options that are more popular.

From how I've read it, the invite to the Design Studio doesn't take your location into account, only your reservation date. So a non-owner from EU who reserved on the 31st will get into the Design Studio the same day as a Bay Area current owner who also reserved on the 31st.

Employees, of course, get first crack.

 

[Model 3]

From how I've read it, the invite to the Design Studio doesn't take your location into account, only your reservation date. So a non-owner from EU who reserved on the 31st will get into the Design Studio the same day as a Bay Area current owner who also reserved on the 31st.

Why? That goes against what Tesla has done earlier with Model S and X, and against what we are told that they will. Anyway, they will not have the European prices ready at the time the first customers in California get access to their design studio.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Why? That goes against what Tesla has done earlier with Model S and X, and against what we are told that they will. Anyway, they will not have the European prices ready at the time the first customers in California get access to their design studio.

You tell me.

It's right there on my MyTesla page:

"Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. Deliveries will begin in late 2017. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation."

Says nothing about location or current-owner status.

 

[Sonny Daze]

"Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. Deliveries will begin in late 2017. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation."

Says nothing about location or current-owner status.

However, it doesn't say "based solely on the date of your reservation."

I think we need to take all these statements and tweets and quotes from Tesla/Elon with a grain of salt rather than parse every word. They will do what they want to do when they want to do it and we're all just along for the ride.

 

[butchmank9]

They may open it up to allow people to play with it, but they won't be able to "cash in" or make plans from it until people actually begin confirming their orders. And you can't confirm your order until they invite you to which won't be all at once, it'll be in groups starting with employees, then early reservation holders on the West coast then moving East. Once they start getting confirmations they may be able to build up more inventory of options that are more popular.

They can at least assess how many parts they would need and the quantity if they open up the design studio. So I totally agree on the one.

 

[dsvick]

"Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. Deliveries will begin in late 2017. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation."

Says nothing about location or current-owner status.

True, but there are other places where they mention doing it by region. I think many people assume it will be by region then by reservation date. So something like "Everyone in the five or six westernmost states who reserved on 3/31" then they'll let all of them configure and base production on employee or not, prior owner or not, and selected options (and whatever other criteria they apply). Then move East and do the same for the next region.

They can at least assess how many parts they would need and the quantity if they open up the design studio. So I totally agree on the one.

No, they won't be able to assess anything since they won't know anything definite from just letting people play with it. They can't make any decisions until they actually have orders and they won't have any actual orders until people are told they can confirm. And that won't happen all at once.

 

[Model 3]

You tell me.

It's right there on my MyTesla page:

"Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. Deliveries will begin in late 2017. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation."

Says nothing about location or current-owner status.

Ok, then I tell you. Or I let the Tesla team do it for me....

In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region.

Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets. It is not possible to ship to all regions simultaneously because regulators in each part of the world have slightly different production requirements. Staggering deliveries in this way also allows us to provide the best possible customer experience.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Ok, then I tell you. Or I let the Tesla team do it for me....

That gets pretty deep on deliveries, and queues within regions.

Still doesn't rule out DESIGN STUDIO AVAILABILITY being based on reservation date.


Am I overthinking it? Maybe. But that's really all we can do right now.

 

[Model 3]

Still doesn't rule out DESIGN STUDIO AVAILABILITY being based on reservation date.

They did not spell out "The design studio will be available to you when it is your turn in the queue to configure and finalize the order". They did not need to, as that is how it have bin done by Tesla in the past when they have started to produce and deliver a new model. So that is what to expect unless they tell us something else.

But yes, you will probably see the design studio earlier - via pictures taken by the first be able to order a car and posted here on TMC. And that is how you will get to know how the options is priced and what is available.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

They did not spell out "The design studio will be available to you when it is your turn in the queue to configure and finalize the order". They did not need to, as that is how it have bin done by Tesla in the past when they have started to produce and deliver a new model. So that is what to expect unless they tell us something else.

But yes, you will probably see the design studio earlier - via pictures taken by the first be able to order a car and posted here on TMC. And that is how you will get to know how the options is priced and what is available.

this car is not the S or X, so I wouldn't be too married to the idea of "what Tesla has always done..."

 

[Red Sage]

Why? That goes against what Tesla has done earlier with Model S and X, and against what we are told that they will. Anyway, they will not have the European prices ready at the time the first customers in California get access to their design studio.

I think it is a matter of showing confidence that Tesla will be able to get your car to you in a reasonable time frame. It does not mean that anyone in Australia who placed an unseen deposit at a Tesla Store prior to the Model ☰ Reveal Part I on March 31, 2016 will receive their car before anyone in New York that placed their deposit online on April 1, 2016. It just means that the Australian will very possibly receive their invitation to configure earlier, if Tesla has everything in order on their website. The Australian will still be in the queue for those buyers in the South Pacific. The New Yorker will still be in the queue for those buyers on the U.S. East Coast. As others have noted, should Tesla hit the ground running at between 4,000 and 10,000 units per week of Model ☰ Production, there won't be much of a difference for buyers no matter where they are before long.

 

[Model 3]

this car is not the S or X, so I wouldn't be too married to the idea of "what Tesla has always done..."

You are absolutely correct in that it is not the S or X. But I do not see the point in opening the design studio for Europeans and Australians well before the local prices is set and the car is homologated in the respective counties. Especially as "opening the design studio" as it is now is equal to letting the customer choose from options and see their local prices, and finalize an order.

Yes, this justifications does not apply to an east coaster in US, but still there is good reasons for Tesla to delay the opening of the design studio until they are ready to take and possibly produce the cars based on an finalized order from that customer. So Tesla has had good reasons to do it in exactly this way for the Model S and X, and they still have the same good reasons to do it the exactly same way with the Model 3.

Could they make a "design studio preview" and open it to all at the same time? Showing what they "to day" expect the options and cost to be at the time they are ready to take an order from you? Yes, they could, but I do not see that it helps Tesla in any way, and may confuse the customers as options and prices changes and can provide many unhappy customers and complaints. So no, I do not think that would be a smart move.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

You are absolutely correct in that it is not the S or X. But I do not see the point in opening the design studio for Europeans and Australians well before the local prices is set and the car is homologated in the respective counties. Especially as "opening the design studio" as it is now is equal to letting the customer choose from options and see their local prices, and finalize an order.

Yes, this justifications does not apply to an east coaster in US, but still there is good reasons for Tesla to delay the opening of the design studio until they are ready to take and possibly produce the cars based on an finalized order from that customer. So Tesla has had good reasons to do it in exactly this way for the Model S and X, and they still have the same good reasons to do it the exactly same way with the Model 3.

Could they make a "design studio preview" and open it to all at the same time? Showing what they "to day" expect the options and cost to be at the time they are ready to take an order from you? Yes, they could, but I do not see that it helps Tesla in any way, and may confuse the customers as options and prices changes and can provide many unhappy customers and complaints. So no, I do not think that would be a smart move.

In the US, the Design Studio and production of your vehicles are a much simpler proposition. I don't think it would cause much belly-aching if every US Day 1 Res Holder got into the Design Studio at the same time. But for EU, Australia, Asia, etc.....you're right, it might not be as "fun" for them. They may end up getting into the Design Studio, and then waiting another 9 months-a year, or longer, to get their car.


So maybe Day 1 Res Holders get in to the Design Studio first......when it's available in their Region? Is that worded better for you?

 

[Model 3]

So maybe Day 1 Res Holders get in to the Design Studio first......when it's available in their Region? Is that worded better for you?

It helps Depending a bit about what you consider to be "their Region". If you think the US - or NA - is one region, you are into a surprise.

More then ¼ of the reservations (that we know about) was made at day one - before the unveiling. So even for a small local region like "Fremont, CA" or "SF, CA" it may be quite a lot of first day reservations. And then there is employees (in this region) that will get to order and receive their cars before any one else. Then there is existing owners that will get priority, and then the highest equipped cars gets delivered first. You may still be in for a long wait if you are an none-employee and a none-owner and finalize a bare-bone TM3 at day one it is opened for design studio in your local region.

So no, as I said it does help, but not quite enough. So you still has not got me "onboard" your idea.

I think they will open the design studio for the first maybe 1000 reservation holders in a specific region and then wait a bit to see how many will finalize their cars before they open up for the next group. So as they open the design center for about what they see they can produce and deliver in an reasonable time - like ~2-4 month. They may decide to pick the existing owners first, before opening it to the none-owner in the same region.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

It helps Depending a bit about what you consider to be "their Region". If you think the US - or NA - is one region, you are into a surprise.

More then ¼ of the reservations (that we know about) was made at day one - before the unveiling. So even for a small local region like "Fremont, CA" or "SF, CA" it may be quite a lot of first day reservations. And then there is employees (in this region) that will get to order and receive their cars before any one else. Then there is existing owners that will get priority, and then the highest equipped cars gets delivered first. You may still be in for a long wait if you are an none-employee and a none-owner and finalize a bare-bone TM3 at day one it is opened for design studio in your local region.

So no, as I said it does help, but not quite enough. So you still has not got me "onboard" your idea.

I think they will open the design studio for the first maybe 1000 reservation holders in a specific region and then wait a bit to see how many will finalize their cars before they open up for the next group. So as they open the design center for about what they see they can produce and deliver in an reasonable time - like ~2-4 month. They may decide to pick the existing owners first, before opening it to the none-owner in the same region.

Giving existing owners 1st shot is nice and all, but in some areas, like the Northeast US, where Elon himself has admitted the market is "under-penetrated", Tesla would do themselves well to let some non-owners into the mix early.

Me, for example....not to be selfish ( ) but I'm an "easy conversion".

I'm not going to spend 2 weeks debating what boxes to check.

If I get into the Design Studio, check all the boxes, and the car comes out to less than $85,000.....the hardest part of that transaction for me would be deciding what color to go with.

I wonder if Tesla will be reaching out to reservation holders in early 2017 to gauge the commitment of reservation holders to convert quickly......?

hhmmmmm.....

 

[Model 3]

but in some areas, like the Northeast US, where Elon himself has admitted the market is "under-penetrated"

Yes, but in those areas there will not be so many existing owners to serve, so they will reach out for none-owners early But I do not know how they will define their regions, so this areas may or may not be in the same region as a lot of earlier Tesla owners elsewhere...

I wonder if Tesla will be reaching out to reservation holders in early 2017 to gauge the commitment of reservation holders to convert quickly......?

My guess it no. I think the first none-employees near Fremont will get the design studio opened in late May/early June at earliest - if their schedule plan seems to work out as planed. Employees in CA will probably get in in late Mars/early May. How fast it will go from there depend on the commitment rate of the reservations, and the ramp-up speed of the factory. Buy all off this is just my speculations...

 

[dsvick]

There is no real reason they can't open the design center for everyone at the same time but only allow people that have been invited to confirm to actually place an order. I don't see things changing so frequently or as drastically as to preclude them from doing that, at least not in the first 6 months or so.