4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703391260805939412

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705157502373937239

 

[petit_bateau]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705157502373937239

But is it lg china or LG South Korea supplying 2170 to Berlin ? Same issue applies from Jan 2024 onwards I think.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712148594743037988

 

[Buckminster]

View attachment 981936

https://x.com/ByeonChansoo/status/1712877672278192465?s=20

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715845298327560591

 

[Doggydogworld]

First year CTs will have a lot more than 120 kWh, IMHO.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717374523203289191

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1718998563449950592

 

[Buckminster]

 

[Buckminster]

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730336142174659058

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731692835110322621

That's a lot of Samsung batteries. I wonder who is buying them?...

 

[Buckminster]

List of products waiting 4680s in approximate likely sequence:

1. CT
2. Semi (V3 required? - 2170s today but maybe a reason for not ramping)
3. Roadster (V3 required?)
4. M2
5. Van
6. Robotaxi
7. MY (Juniper?)

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1734246393584275754

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737368148448313379

Maybe thinking of building near Austin or Giga Mexico? Being relatively close, one plant could supply both as an added benefit.

 

[Buckminster]

Tracking battery availability is admittedly getting very difficult these days with the supply chain widening its sources. But cell capacity for an additional 700k vehicles doesn't sound impossible. Some examples:

• CATL shanghai plant coming online with [80]GWh capacity. I think most of this is going to focused on stationary storage but 10% of that capacity could get enough cells for 100k+vehicles
• BYD continuing to expand cell capacity at a breakneck pace. Their introduction of Sodium cells into vehicles may free up some LFP capacity for sale to Tesla.
• Panasonic 4680 production due to start Q2/Q3 2024
• Joe Tegtmyer said 4 Austin lines are ramping now with another 4 coming online by the end of the year. Additionally, cathode material changes are good for another 10% to 20% from existing lines. Each line is apparently good for c.10GWh/yr at full capacity (before energy density improvements)

Long story short - 700k additional vehicles at 70KWh average pack size is "only" another 49GWh of capacity. There are multiple avenues to reach the needed increase.

I wish we had a reliable YouTuber/Twitterer that worked on global battery supply chain / factory capacity reporting the same as we have for vehicle volumes. Jordan and CleanerWatt both do some of this but none that I can find that look at a total market perspective. This leaves us to cobble together sources from multiple articles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742699430145302559

View attachment 1005664

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1744779974848970951

 

[Buckminster]

Super vague ‘start production as early as this year’ when it’s just the fifteenth of January but okay.

Panasonic announces new and improved 2170 chemistry:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746937833959342323

My free articles are gone, maybe someone else can get some more information out of it:

Panasonic to Make Upgraded EV Battery as Early as 2024

Panasonic Holdings Corp. plans to roll out the newest iteration of its electric-vehicle battery cells with improved capacity as early as this year, the chief technology officer of its energy business said.

www.bloomberg.com

Easy to forget 2170s

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748370578065506613