I was watching this video clip with Joe Rogan and he said Elon told him that he expects to have a range of 600 miles by 2020? Is that right? That would be incredible if true. Definitely a game changer.
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600 mile range?
- Thread starter patrick80132
- Start date
Ludalicious
Active Member
Was this before or after they got high?
I'm a newbie. My bad. Hope they can retrofit one into a 3 when the battery needs replacement.
Not a chance, but there will be better tech available in 10 years when packs need to start getting replaced.
First of all, the key word is "Elon". So, 600 miles by 2020 (that's only a few months away!!!) are to be taken with a truckload of salt. Also, this being Elon-speak and Tesla, the numbers of miles should be reduced and the year increased, by a lot.
2020 in Musk terms is probably 2022 but Tesla almost certainly has a new battery tech up their sleeve because both the Roadster and semi don’t “make sense” with current tech. One possibility is they are just lying. A more likely scenario is that there is a new battery tech coming within a year or so. This would also explain why the S and X seem so hopelessly out of date. But if they show their hand... S and X sales would drop to zero.
The recent announcement about Panasonic stopping their investment at giga either means demand for the cars has gone down or... they don’t need to make the legacy cells because...? Just a hypothesis.
Elon predicted in 2012 that battery technology would improve by 5-8% per year. Reality is far from that. The original 85 was really just an 81.5 kWh battery. Today we have a 100 pack which has a true capacity of 101 kWh. But the 100 pack has 16% more cells in the same package so it's really not an improvement from 81.5 to 101 but only 81.5 to 85 on a cell level. That's really not that impressive for 7 years.
The Model 3 battery pack is actually also not much better. The weight to capacity ratio is only slightly better than the Model S 100 pack. The reason the Model 3 gets so much range with a smaller battery is because the car overall is much more efficient. (smaller, lighter and more efficient drive train)
Had we seen a 5% increase in cell capacity every year, we would be at 114 kWh now. An 8% improvement per year would have given us a 139 kWh battery this year, or 471 miles of rated range in a Model S. We are far behind the prediction. Makes me wonder if Tesla has a big leap in the works, or it turned out it is much harder to make cells with higher capacity than originally thought.
The Model 3 battery pack is actually also not much better. The weight to capacity ratio is only slightly better than the Model S 100 pack. The reason the Model 3 gets so much range with a smaller battery is because the car overall is much more efficient. (smaller, lighter and more efficient drive train)
Had we seen a 5% increase in cell capacity every year, we would be at 114 kWh now. An 8% improvement per year would have given us a 139 kWh battery this year, or 471 miles of rated range in a Model S. We are far behind the prediction. Makes me wonder if Tesla has a big leap in the works, or it turned out it is much harder to make cells with higher capacity than originally thought.
gilscales
Banned
The Maxwell dry cell tech sounds very promising, hopefully this will go through so we can see some real increases in the near future
Folks, you've got to get some understanding of reality here. A 600 mile EV is completely possible today. It's even easy to do. The only caveats is that you lose the trunk space and add $25,000 to the price of the car. The Roadster and Pickup are both slated to have the bigger batteries as options.
As technology increases, the price will go down and the capacity will go up. So at some point in the future, those become possibilities, but I'd guess improbabilities. A 600 mile EV is generally overkill. That can be seen by the ICE which I'm not sure if any of them have tanks that big. As the efficiency in an ICE goes up, then tank gets smaller.
You may see some options for 400,500,600 mile ranges, but the 300 mile range is pretty much standard for vehicles.
And yes, the refiling is slower, but it really isn't that much slower when on a road trip. Most stops include bathroom breaks and refreshment refills and that takes time. But battery refill speeds will increase, coming closer to that of a gas refill.
Oh, think about it, when you fill today, you have to stand at the pump, with recharging, you can go inside while it is filling.
With SO MANY new EV owners existing now, most folks haven't really learned what a long trip is like in an EV. In a trip from Ft Lauderdale to Atlanta last year, the trip took only 30 minutes longer than if we had been in an ICE. That's because we combined meals and breaks with charging. At most charging stops, the car filled before we did. I even remember one stop where I pulled it off a Supercharger (to save a dollar or two) after it had started t taper and put it on a destination charger, where it sat for another 45 minutes as we finished lunch.
As technology increases, the price will go down and the capacity will go up. So at some point in the future, those become possibilities, but I'd guess improbabilities. A 600 mile EV is generally overkill. That can be seen by the ICE which I'm not sure if any of them have tanks that big. As the efficiency in an ICE goes up, then tank gets smaller.
You may see some options for 400,500,600 mile ranges, but the 300 mile range is pretty much standard for vehicles.
And yes, the refiling is slower, but it really isn't that much slower when on a road trip. Most stops include bathroom breaks and refreshment refills and that takes time. But battery refill speeds will increase, coming closer to that of a gas refill.
Oh, think about it, when you fill today, you have to stand at the pump, with recharging, you can go inside while it is filling.
With SO MANY new EV owners existing now, most folks haven't really learned what a long trip is like in an EV. In a trip from Ft Lauderdale to Atlanta last year, the trip took only 30 minutes longer than if we had been in an ICE. That's because we combined meals and breaks with charging. At most charging stops, the car filled before we did. I even remember one stop where I pulled it off a Supercharger (to save a dollar or two) after it had started t taper and put it on a destination charger, where it sat for another 45 minutes as we finished lunch.
that would imply the battery tech isn't getting much better if you saying just plop another battery pack from almost 10 years ago in there.
except we haven't really seen that
Not overkill at all, when modern ice cars are getting 35-40mpg even with a modest 15gal tank that's 525-600 miles, 500ish if you're not running the tank dry every time. There's plenty of vehicles I've seen advertised as getting 700+ miles on a tank.
It's much slower, and even you said it "MOST" stops include breaks, not all. I don't know have anyone else road trips but I'm not getting drinks every couple hours and food. I can eat and and drink like a normal person while on a road trip, I don't need food every 3-5 hours. And what about the stops where you're not getting anything in an ICE, it's just fill and go.
Eventually, but nowhere close to it today, even with a V3 charger
countless people let the pumps auto shutoff while they go inside and do whatever.
now I'm really confused, Lauderdale to ATL is like 9 hours at the speed limit, that's one stop for fuel in every ICE vehicle I've ever owned and was done nonstop in more than one vehicle. Even in an M3 LR RWD leaving at 100% that's an hour and a half of charging. If you're spending that much time stopping in an ICE it's because you choose to and that's not indicative of the typical traveler; you get fuel, you grab food and you go. The fact that you had time to supercharge the car, then leave it on a destination charger for an additional 45 minutes says you were stopped for over an hour, again, that's longer than even a sit down meal takes and much longer than a typical road trip pit stop. What I'm getting at is your leisurely strolls aren't indicative of the millions of people who travel.[/quote]
The 500 or 600 miles range isn't really actual range. If an EV has 600 miles of rated range, the real world driving range is 10-15% lower. Down to 510 miles. But in an EV you really try to avoid going below 10% and above 90%. We are using only the core 80%. Down to 408 miles. Now let there be winter where the energy consumption is 20-30% higher. And we are down to 306 miles. If you are on a road trip, you don't want to charge to 90% as it gets slow. You want to charge to 70%, maybe 80% for the best charge speed. So your range is down a bit even more. Some like to have a little more fun with their cars and use more energy as well.
Bottom line, an EV with 600 miles isn't overkill in the real world. For those that drive a lot, it makes sense.
Bottom line, an EV with 600 miles isn't overkill in the real world. For those that drive a lot, it makes sense.
