75Kwh battery pack being dropped from Model S/X. Refresh coming?

[jgwozdzicki]

Hi guys,

I read an article yesterday on Electrek hat said Tesla is dropping the 75Kwh battery pack from the Model S/X next week which will significantly push up the base price for both models. Now, is this to further separate the S/X from the Model 3 or is this potentially due to the S/X getting an upgrade to the same battery tech the 3 has? Or is this just another move by Elon to shift more Tesla’s to boost sales figures? If true, it’s a shame as it takes a lot of potential buyers out of the market as the 3 will still, in my opinion, be a long time coming for the layman here in the UK.

What are people’s thoughts?

Original article is here: Tesla is discontinuing 75 kWh battery pack for Model S and Model X

 

[Tam]

...thoughts...

It's unclear until Tesla can explain the reasons.

However, it's reasonable to discontinue the 75 kWh battery if it is not as popular as the bigger ones. (Tesla gave that line of reasoning before for discontinuing 40 kWh order.)

Previously, with discontinuing 40 kWh order, people didn't have another cheaper choice so they had to pay up for more expensive battery size.

Now, people do have a choice to either pay less for Model 3 or pay more for Model S, X.

It's a slow ramp for Model 3 in the U.S. at first but once it caught up, it's pretty fast now.

I suspect it'll be the same for U.K.

 

[DJP31]

IMO it’s a step away from the kWh designation, in fact Elon tweeted as much. I think we will see a Standard Range and a Long Range version, probably with the 2170 cells. They are more efficient and, crucially, can take the higher charge rate that is coming with the new generation of Superchargers. I believe this may require some re-engineering as the cells are bigger than the 18650 ones.

I read here somewhere the 75 makes up 40% of the S/X sales and Tesla aren’t going to prejudice that many sales in the hope they will switch to a 3. The size and styling of the S suits many, and the Y is nowhere close to production.

Neither do I believe they are trying to distance the pricing to avoid overlap. Many brands have a fully loaded version that costs more than a base version of the next version, i.e. BMW 3 and 5 or Audi Q3 /Q5. Different horses for different courses.

Also, Tesla have a big bond due for repayment in March. If the share price is at $360 the bond is converted into shares. That would save Tesla a shed load of cash, and they are still very cash hungry. I can’t see them doing anything that would potentially knock investor confidence at the moment and put downward pressure on the share price.

Just my 2p’s worth.

 

[Derek Kessler]

It's all about providing some side between the 3 and the higher margin S. There have been countless threads on TMC questioning why you'd but a 75D when the 3 gets better range and performance at a lower price.

That's no longer a consideration.

 

[firewire]

I'm just glad I bought the S 75D a few months back because I wouldn't have been able to justify buying a 100D and 3 was never a consideration because looks wise the front reminds me of Kermit the frog! All in all from what I have read from many owners the S is just a better car overall.

 

[Sabre Man]

The Model S boot is bigger and more practical. Tesla will be losing sales in RHD countries as Model 3 isn't available yet.

 

[Peteski]

IMO it’s a step away from the kWh designation, in fact Elon tweeted as much. I think we will see a Standard Range and a Long Range version, probably with the 2170 cells. They are more efficient and, crucially, can take the higher charge rate that is coming with the new generation of Superchargers. I believe this may require some re-engineering as the cells are bigger than the 18650 ones.

I read here somewhere the 75 makes up 40% of the S/X sales and Tesla aren’t going to prejudice that many sales in the hope they will switch to a 3. The size and styling of the S suits many, and the Y is nowhere close to production.

Neither do I believe they are trying to distance the pricing to avoid overlap. Many brands have a fully loaded version that costs more than a base version of the next version, i.e. BMW 3 and 5 or Audi Q3 /Q5. Different horses for different courses.

Also, Tesla have a big bond due for repayment in March. If the share price is at $360 the bond is converted into shares. That would save Tesla a shed load of cash, and they are still very cash hungry. I can’t see them doing anything that would potentially knock investor confidence at the moment and put downward pressure on the share price.

Just my 2p’s worth.

Pretty sound reasoning ^ which ties in with what Elon has already said.

There's no way the likes of Porsche would suddenly drop their entry level Panamera and Cayenne just to sell a few more top end models or perhaps encourage more Macan sales. It doesn't make any sense, even if there is some overlap in their model ranges.

So I expect Tesla will soon release new base Model S/X options. The fact that they haven't done so instantly suggests a revised battery spec, probably for all S/X variants. But I can't see them introducing newer cells on the base model while still using older cells in the top end models. Although in that case it seems a bit odd that they have chosen to ditch the 75 kWh packs earlier. I would have expected all S/X models to be upgraded simultaneously with any new battery packs. So maybe there is some other reason why the 75 has come to an abrupt end at this point.

 

[jsteele]

I was quite close to pulling the trigger on an inventory 75D... now I'm not sure, do I wait for potential new battery tech, or get a 75d quick before all the inventory stock is gone... any advice from anyone on that conundrum?

 

[DJP31]

I was quite close to pulling the trigger on an inventory 75D... now I'm not sure, do I wait for potential new battery tech, or get a 75d quick before all the inventory stock is gone... any advice from anyone on that conundrum?

A difficult decision for sure. I'm pretty sure the newer 2170 cells and associated paraphernalia won't fit into the existing car structure, which suggests that won't happen until there is a more comprehensive refresh. Are they ready for that yet with the drama of the 3 production ramp up? Doubtful IMO.

I also can't see them bringing something out immediately, as that would seriously upset those that signed up to a custom build S/X and are still waiting, especially as Musk was highlighting the closing time for orders. When Tesla make incremental changes they just happen and it truly is luck of the draw whether you went into production before or after the change over. This wasn't quite like that.

Does the 75D do all you want it to? Are you at the top end of your budget? If yes to both of those I'd probably be more inclined to jump than not - and I think the inventory finance rate (if you are going that way) is pretty keen.

It's a tough call though.

 

[Need]

I was quite close to pulling the trigger on an inventory 75D... now I'm not sure, do I wait for potential new battery tech, or get a 75d quick before all the inventory stock is gone... any advice from anyone on that conundrum?

S or X?

After a year owning our MX75D, there is only one thing we wish we would have done differently about our purchase... not getting the bigger battery. At the time of purchase, we thought.. with 237 miles(or something like that) is plenty enough! But we didn't realized that you really only charge to 90% on a daily basis so it would be 207'ish.. AND then you really don't get 207... so more like 188 real miles fully charged in the summer. Now in the winter (not too cold here and no snow), it is more like 165 miles. I see that you are in UK.... so if you have snow and putting on snow tires.. I think your winter range on a 75D MX (MS will be better) will drop down to like 140 miles or 225 km. Maybe you are okay with that.

My suggestion is that if you could afford it... go with the bigger battery. But if you find a really amazing deal on an inventory 75D...go for it?

 

[Peteski]

I was quite close to pulling the trigger on an inventory 75D... now I'm not sure, do I wait for potential new battery tech, or get a 75d quick before all the inventory stock is gone... any advice from anyone on that conundrum?

Depends how much you want/need to be driving a Tesla now and whether or not more range would be of any practical use to you. I'm more than happy with my X 75D range and performance so certainly won't be swapping mine for anything newer until my PCP ends in early 2022.

If you are not in any hurry and prepared to stump up for a more expensive option if necessary then I would probably wait it out for a couple of months and see what happens, but as DJP31 says, if you are already at the top end of your budget then an inventory 75D would be a good choice and you'll get to drive it next week! Remember there will always be something new coming along with Tesla in any case, it's the nature of the beast.

 

[Peteski]

S or X?

After a year owning our MX75D, there is only one thing we wish we would have done differently about our purchase... not getting the bigger battery. At the time of purchase, we thought.. with 237 miles(or something like that) is plenty enough! But we didn't realized that you really only charge to 90% on a daily basis so it would be 207'ish.. AND then you really don't get 207... so more like 188 real miles fully charged in the summer. Now in the winter (not too cold here and no snow), it is more like 165 miles. I see that you are in UK.... so if you have snow and putting on snow tires.. I think your winter range on a 75D MX (MS will be better) will drop down to like 140 miles or 225 km. Maybe you are okay with that.

My suggestion is that if you could afford it... go with the bigger battery. But if you find a really deal on an inventory 75D...go for it?

All true enough, but in reality there is nothing to stop you from charging to 100% on a daily basis and unless you plan to keep the car for a decade or more then battery degradation would be pretty irrelevant.

Not that I need to, but given say a 4 year 50-60k mile ownership period, I would much rather charge a 75D to 100% than pamper a 100D battery with an daily 80% charge. The only time it would be a practical disadvantage is when charging to 100% on a Supercharger, due to the much slower top end charge rate. That and around 50 miles less real world range.

The reality for me in the UK is that the range of the X 75D is generally of no issue on our little island, but it is good to know the reality vs theoretical range.

 

[Need]

The reality for me in the UK is that the range of the X 75D is generally of no issue on our little island, but it is good to know the reality vs theoretical range.

Yeah after I replied, I realized that this entire thread in the UK forum not just @jsteele LOL. This is what happened when I click New Post and only looked at the topic.

 

[Peteski]

Yeah after I replied, I realized that this entire thread in the UK forum not just @jsteele LOL. This is what happened when I click New Post and only looked at the topic.

It was still a valid post for anyone who might not have fully researched real world range and there are some people here who would prefer the 100D range.

 

[jsteele]

Thanks for all the advice! It's an S I'm looking at. Not in a huge rush, but the 75d is near the top of my budget so one worry would be that the only option going forward is the 100d.

On the otherhand I'll be a bit surprised if they remove the 75d price range option completely and it might be a bit fustrating if an upgraded version is released in the next month or two!

 

[Need]

Thanks for all the advice! It's an S I'm looking at. Not in a huge rush, but the 75d is near the top of my budget so one worry would be that the only option going forward is the 100d.

On the otherhand I'll be a bit surprised if they remove the 75d price range option completely and it might be a bit fustrating if an upgraded version is released in the next month or two!

My wife has MX 75D, but I drive the M3 AWD LR. When our MX 75D was in the shop, we got a loaner MS 75D. I have to say that the M3 drives way better than the 75D...better handling..feel faster even though the 75D is supposed to be faster. Unless you really like the bigger size of the MS or you have to have heated steering wheel or center console display, you could wait for M3 to get to UK. It will be cheaper than cheapest 75D MS.

 

[jsteele]

My wife has MX 75D, but I drive the M3 AWD LR. When our MX 75D was in the shop, we got a loaner MS 75D. I have to say that the M3 drives way better than the 75D...better handling..feel faster even though the 75D is supposed to be faster. Unless you really like the bigger size of the MS or you have to have heated steering wheel or center console display, you could wait for M3 to get to UK. It will be cheaper than cheapest 75D MS.

Unfortunately the M3 won't work for us - we have a dog who needs to be able to ride in the boot, so need the hatchback design of the S

 

[DJP31]

Not in a huge rush, but the 75d is near the top of my budget so one worry would be that the only option going forward is the 100d.

One fairly recent change Tesla made was to increase the price of the 75D but include the Premium Upgrade Package. If you wanted the PUP the new price was actually a reduction overall, but if you didn’t want it tough, you got it anyway and your price was higher.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see the 75D rebadged at the Model S/X “Standard Range” with increased range on what the 75D has, e.g. with an 85kWh battery. There would be a price rise, but it would keep the price in the same ballpark as the 75D, and consequently not price potential owners out which is what the 100D is certainly going to do.

Pure guesswork on my part of course

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I read this which offered a partial argument for dropping the 75 based on depreciation, do the numbers ring true in the uk?

Tesla UK depreciation in 2018

 

[Peteski]

I read this which offered a partial argument for dropping the 75 based on depreciation, do the numbers ring true in the uk?

Tesla UK depreciation in 2018

I'm not convinced Tesla would care about depreciation on their cars, especially in the first year. What they will care about is the number of new sales and removing the 75D will most definitely reduce sales, especially with the M3 being unavailable at this point. So for whatever reason, Tesla are prepared to reduce S/X sales for now. It's hard to speculate on the actual reason, but it's definitely not a sales strategy!