A fourth possibility, by the way, is that it's the same battery as is currently used but with a module taken out. Not sure of the structure of the new refresh batteries, so would need some expert to chime in on that.
Refresh has five battery modules in series to give about 450V. So one module out would be 80% capacity and max volts about 360V. This would match both the announced capacity and power, as less volts mean slower acceleration.
So it would make sense. But still the consensus seems to be now that it is just software locked.