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After Killing Tesla Model Y SR, Musk Says New Normal Range Is 300 Miles

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May 19, 2017
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If that’s the new standard, we may have to wave goodbye to the Model 3 Standard Range Plus as well. When Elon Musk said there would be no Tesla Model Y Standard Range Plus, his excuse was that the range would be too low, below 250 mi. That must have frustrated a lot of Tesla...
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While of course that makes sense, if Tesla made a model 3 or Y with let's says 150-200 miles of range and was 28-32k it would sell amazingly well.

Most people do not need 300 miles in one shot and charge nightly anyway.

But, I have yet to see any evidence of that being the case. People keep saying, just give me a plain and affordable car and it will sell like crazy. However, in the real world, cars are getting more expensive because people keep buying them fully loaded, and dealers keep reporting that they struggle to give away the stripped down cars with no options.

If people wanted cheap and basic electric cars with a short range, there are tons of used one's on the market. Why aren't they getting snatched up as soon as they come up for sale?

I have yet to find any compelling evidence that anyone actually wants those cheap and basic mass produced cars everyone keeps claiming would be in high demand, if only someone would make them.
 
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Before I bought my Model 3 LR DM I thought that I would be fine with 220 mile range. I wanted dual motors. Afterward, when I realized that 75+ mph highway in winter uses a lot more energy than 55 mph city in fall, I was really glad that I got LR.

Aside: About 6 weeks ago my 22 month old Model 3 was rear ended while stopped at a traffic light. So since then I have been driving ICE car. I found that I am more that a little afraid of running out of gas. For nearly two years I haven't needed to check a gas gauge and now I forget to do so. In the Tesla every morning I know I have enough fuel for the days plans. Not so, with ICE.
 
I would qualify what Musk said, he is saying people like the range reserves for cold climates. You can in extreme colds lose as much as 40% of battery range because the range is affected by the cold and the heater uses a lot of energy.

The longer range is also desired in the USA because people drive farther, and in Europe as people don't have garages to charge them, so people would have to charge them maybe once a week at a central charger somewhere.

I personally think the obsession with range is overblown, as people want this massive range so they can take a road trip once a year and save 20 minutes of travel time, while in reality, most people stop and rest on those road trips anyways, where they can charge the car.

But, this would remove one excuse from people who won't buy electric cars because of range. Now we just have to work on the myth of the power tools and laptop battery theory that electric car batteries only last 3 years. And it will take 12 hours to charge the cars on a road trip, while you are looking at 20 to 30 minutes in most cases.
 
Before I bought my Model 3 LR DM I thought that I would be fine with 220 mile range. I wanted dual motors. Afterward, when I realized that 75+ mph highway in winter uses a lot more energy than 55 mph city in fall, I was really glad that I got LR.

Aside: About 6 weeks ago my 22 month old Model 3 was rear ended while stopped at a traffic light. So since then I have been driving ICE car. I found that I am more that a little afraid of running out of gas. For nearly two years I haven't needed to check a gas gauge and now I forget to do so. In the Tesla every morning I know I have enough fuel for the days plans. Not so, with ICE.

That brings up another issue I have noticed. Most ICE cars typically only have a range of around 300 to 350 miles with a full tank of gas. I remember renting a Ford Escape while I was on a hurricane response team that was sent to get NY/NJ up and running after Sandy. I wound up staying in PA and drove into NY and NJ and back to PA every day. It was almost impossible to find gas in NY and NJ, so I had to fill up the car in PA, drive into NY or NJ, and then drive back to PA and fill up the car.

I would arrive back every time with the Low Fuel light on as the car barely had a range of 300 miles with a full tank. As cars get better gas mileage, they have been shrinking the fuel tank, and most people don't really need more than 300 miles of range real life, when they only commute 30 miles or less each day.
 
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But, I have yet to see any evidence of that being the case. People keep saying, just give me a plain and affordable car and it will sell like crazy. However, in the real world, cars are getting more expensive because people keep buying them fully loaded, and dealers keep reporting that they struggle to give away the stripped down cars with no options.

If people wanted cheap and basic electric cars with a short range, there are tons of used one's on the market. Why aren't they getting snatched up as soon as they come up for sale?

I have yet to find any compelling evidence that anyone actually wants those cheap and basic mass produced cars everyone keeps claiming would be in high demand, if only someone would make them.
The Audi Etron, Porsche Taycon, BMW I3, Bolt EV, Honda Clarity, Kia Niro EV, Smart EV, Hyundai Ioniq and Kona, Nissan leaf and many more and that's just off the top of my head I'm sure I'm missing some.. All under 300 miles of range.

Plus a ton of manufacturers are moving into plug-in hybrids options to give consumers 20-40 electric only range for their daily range, there's a reason they offer that.

Let's not just offer blanket statements like there are no cheaper affordable EVs available, my list has plenty.

Back to my original statement,

I was specifically talking about Tesla, to which Elon has already confirmed they will be making a compact car after the Cybertruck, no details on range/price obviously.

While yes, everyone would love to have 500 miles of EV range that isn't available now and for most people it's not a requirement. Some people that want to go to a "luxury" brand like Tesla and cannot afford a model 3 would at least have an option of a more affordable shorter range Tesla.
 
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The Audi Etron, Porsche Taycon, BMW I3, Bolt EV, Honda Clarity, Kia Niro EV, Smart EV, Hyundai Ioniq and Kona, Nissan leaf and many more and that's just off the top of my head I'm sure I'm missing some.. All under 300 miles of range.

Plus a ton of manufacturers are moving into plug-in hybrids options to give consumers 20-40 electric only range for their daily range, there's a reason they offer that.

Let's not just offer blanket statements like there are no cheaper affordable EVs available, my list has plenty.

Back to my original statement,

I was specifically talking about Tesla, to which Elon has already confirmed they will be making a compact car after the Cybertruck, no details on range/price obviously.

While yes, everyone would love to have 500 miles of EV range that isn't available now and for most people it's not a requirement. Some people that want to go to a "luxury" brand like Tesla and cannot afford a model 3 would at least have an option of a more affordable shorter range Tesla.
Agree. Range is effectively only important because of charging rates. When was the last time an ICE car talked about a 50 mile range difference? If charging were a few minutes, would 300 miles sell significantly more than a cheaper 250 miles?

Imo this is about production constraints and profit margin imo. Dedicate the supply chain to the trims that bring in the most revenue- which for Tesla are the more premium EVs.

Does this range requirement help delineate Tesla’s brand, or feed into ICE companies range anxiety narrative?

It seems more defensive than offensive. It could help Tesla maintain dominance over what is a relatively small market for EVs by using the ICE companies range narrative against ICE manufacturer EV offerings. But the difference between notional 250 vs 300 isn’t removing the sensationalized range “problem” or tangibly helping growing the EV market. It validates it. That’s a win for ICE.
 
I would qualify what Musk said, he is saying people like the range reserves for cold climates. You can in extreme colds lose as much as 40% of battery range because the range is affected by the cold and the heater uses a lot of energy.

Is that still the case with the Y? I thought the heat pump made it significantly more efficient in cold weather environments compared to the 3's resistive element. I get that snow/rain/sleet will impact your range as well...

I agree in the long-term that range is important:

Assuming over 10 years that it degrades 10%, there's a big difference between a fully charged range of 225 vs. 250 and 330 vs. 300; and, there's also the factor that they're telling you to only charge to 80% for daily typical use unless you need it.

Now, the 225 becomes something like 180 with the 80% SOC, but the 300 would still push 240... That's 60 miles of range, another ~hour of driving, that's not insignificant if you're doing highway runs, and it could add up over the trip with extra charging stops.

1000 mile drive from NYC to FL - that would mean you'd have to stop around 5 times in the "SR" - at 180, 360, 540, 720, 900, and arrive with 80 miles of range left if you stopped at 80% each time...

With the "LR" it's 240, 480, 720, 960, and then you arrive with 200 miles of range left. And if you left home with the full charge, you'd get there without that fourth stop.
 
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We know that:
1) Elon Musk will invent reasons other than the real reasons for his decisions
2) The current base range is enough for lots of people, especially in European markets
3) Current ranges are already maxing out credits in the USA and China
4) They're not planning on canceling the Model 3 SR+

Even if the Y SR+ didn't quite max out credits, the formulae mean they'd still be close to max, so it can't be compliance.

The simplest explanation would be that the higher range model is the only way to keep margins high enough that Tesla can be profitable.
 
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We know that:
1) Elon Musk will invent reasons other than the real reasons for his decisions
2) The current base range is enough for lots of people, especially in European markets
3) Current ranges are already maxing out credits in the USA and China
4) They're not planning on canceling the Model 3 SR+

Even if the Y SR+ didn't quite max out credits, the formulae mean they'd still be close to max, so it can't be compliance.

The simplest explanation would be that the higher range model is the only way to keep margins high enough that Tesla can be profitable.
Which is a valid explanation. It’s best Tesla not get dragged down trying make offerings that hurt profits.
 
Which is a valid explanation. It’s best Tesla not get dragged down trying make offerings that hurt profits.
The 3 was intended to be a BMW 3-series competitor; by extension the Y is an X3 competitor. Not meant to be in the price range of a Focus/Cruze/Escape/Trax. This is a decision I can get on board with. The more experience Tesla gets with manufacturing, they will eventually be able to produce even more affordable cars.