Yeah, I saw CSIQ fall to $16.99 AH, but volume only 4k total. Some poor bloke used a market order to sell CSIQ.
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
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Yeah, I saw CSIQ fall to $16.99 AH, but volume only 4k total. Some poor bloke used a market order to sell CSIQ.
Ya I saw that too. Its like he set his sell price to the closing of price yesterday, not today. Big mistake, who ever it was.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Just want to say thanks to all of you for all the info on the solar industry in the past few weeks. It has been *helpful*.
Norse
Active Member
Well I guess its time plan for a bit here. We all agree that Solar might have real bright future, and the upside might be insane here. In Q2 I lost 80% of my options portofolio because of SOL, CSIQ, SCTY and SPWR.
The last 40 days I have done a 7bagger on that portofolio so I have learned my lessions Im now ready to step it up a notch. I guess we have all learned that alot of these stocks follow eachother. If one is green, most of the others are green.
So when we are gonna postion ourselfs before Q3 we need to be careful, even if its CSIQ or SOL we are holding. If LDK are the first to report, then there is probably no point in having tons of options on a winner.
Another thing is what companies will do more offerings. This will also screw your options plays.
JKS is up 1200% the last 14 months, so it beats even TSLA. But as with Tesla, solar stocks could go much further. The question is when. We should do some research here, so that we can position ourself good in Q3 and Q4. Because in 2014 I think this will take off.
But remember TSLA, alot of us dreamed of 200$ back in January, but noone saw it coming so soon.
Alot of people are talking about EV is the future, and I have agreed since I heard about the roadster, but more people agree that Solar is our future. So alot of people will buy in, especially institutions. And if EV is the future, that is a catalyst for solar.
The last 40 days I have done a 7bagger on that portofolio so I have learned my lessions Im now ready to step it up a notch. I guess we have all learned that alot of these stocks follow eachother. If one is green, most of the others are green.
So when we are gonna postion ourselfs before Q3 we need to be careful, even if its CSIQ or SOL we are holding. If LDK are the first to report, then there is probably no point in having tons of options on a winner.
Another thing is what companies will do more offerings. This will also screw your options plays.
JKS is up 1200% the last 14 months, so it beats even TSLA. But as with Tesla, solar stocks could go much further. The question is when. We should do some research here, so that we can position ourself good in Q3 and Q4. Because in 2014 I think this will take off.
But remember TSLA, alot of us dreamed of 200$ back in January, but noone saw it coming so soon.
Alot of people are talking about EV is the future, and I have agreed since I heard about the roadster, but more people agree that Solar is our future. So alot of people will buy in, especially institutions. And if EV is the future, that is a catalyst for solar.
Speaking about all of this. I was thinking about buying some CSIQ lottery tickets. Some Jan14 $30 calls. I am willing to bet if CISQ breaks above $20 a share soon, it could be a big return. At only 50cents a contract buying 5 or 10 would be fun to see how it plays out.
I had a Lottery ticket on FB - Jan 14 $65 i bought for 15 cents right after their Q2. Worth almost $2 now (probably going to dump day after Q3)
CSIQ seems to have so higher Prems for options then some of the others. YGE is at $7 a share and $10 options are 50 cents.
Like i said these would be purely lottery tickets and getting out in time before the delta takes hold will be hard, this is also assuming the stock even move up fast enough to get any gain out of them.
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New idea on top of my last.
Take what i think are the top 5 Solars by possibility of moving up rapid and buy 5 Jan14 DOTM calls in each. Kind of like a bull call spread across the sector. That way if some dont pan out the others would cover them. Or i lose all 5 for a $1250 loss.
I am thinking:
CSIQ
JASO
SOL (already have Jan 7.50s)
TSL
YGE
SPWR (SPWR is on my list because I already own Crazy DOTM Jan $39s from Q2 earnings)
Anyone have any inside ideas on a better solar stock for rapid up movement?
I had a Lottery ticket on FB - Jan 14 $65 i bought for 15 cents right after their Q2. Worth almost $2 now (probably going to dump day after Q3)
CSIQ seems to have so higher Prems for options then some of the others. YGE is at $7 a share and $10 options are 50 cents.
Like i said these would be purely lottery tickets and getting out in time before the delta takes hold will be hard, this is also assuming the stock even move up fast enough to get any gain out of them.
- - - Updated - - -
New idea on top of my last.
Take what i think are the top 5 Solars by possibility of moving up rapid and buy 5 Jan14 DOTM calls in each. Kind of like a bull call spread across the sector. That way if some dont pan out the others would cover them. Or i lose all 5 for a $1250 loss.
I am thinking:
CSIQ
JASO
SOL (already have Jan 7.50s)
TSL
YGE
SPWR (SPWR is on my list because I already own Crazy DOTM Jan $39s from Q2 earnings)
Anyone have any inside ideas on a better solar stock for rapid up movement?
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Norse
Active Member
I would have JKS on that list. I have options in all of these, but I change them every day. If I had 1250, I would buy SOL for the short run and go into CSIQ into earnings. TSL and YGE are thoose companies that might do more offerings, isnt that so sleepy?
Also guys, a very useful tool. Here is the china index of solar companies. Notice that GCL Poly is up, this could mean that DQ which also produces will go up. However it might also just reflect that solar went up for the US listed companies aswell, so dont be fooled by it. Anyways, its in the green, so tomorrow looks good.
http://solarpvinvestor.com/china-index
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InTheShadows
Active Member
Norse
Active Member
borat99
Member
Are we talking options or long stock going into Q3 and possibly Q4?
Are TSL and YGE a bit too big for a lottery play (i.e. over 1 billion)?
I already have long stock for CSIQ, JASO and SOL with calls near the money. Also have a CSUN call that I think I should get rid of very soon.
Are TSL and YGE a bit too big for a lottery play (i.e. over 1 billion)?
I already have long stock for CSIQ, JASO and SOL with calls near the money. Also have a CSUN call that I think I should get rid of very soon.
Norse
Active Member
Im going in with stocks, LEAPS and short-term options. Im now into 8 solar companies or something, guess it will be fewer when we go into earnings. CSUN is probably a sell, but you never know. The guy who tipped me off sold and used to money to buy HSOL.
borat99
Member
Wished I got this tip too. It would have been really nice to sell around $6.50. I'm going into earnings with those three stocks and the APR calls. Still debating whether to do small Jan DOTM calls like fjm9898 suggested.
Norse
Active Member
@Norse - I know that YGE hasn't been in the market yet for a secondary and I think TSL hasn't either. Don't be surprised to see an offering and then your options are shot.
CSIQ may also go back for more so you never know, after all they registered for $200m mixed shelf offering and only raised $50m. I don't think they need more though. If they do need more it is because business is booming like crazy and they need to buy new capacity or fund new power plant projects but that would be stupid if they don't find a buyer to fund it first.
As much as I like solar, they have been going up like crazy over the past week or even more. I mean how long can this last? There has to be a correction some time right?
I would like to believe that a stock can go up 10 or 20 days in a row, but I don't believe that is possible. Are there any stats on this stuff.
Sooner or later these stocks will correct 10% - 20% and give a much better entry point. Then again if they go up another 50% before correcting 10% you missed out on the whole rally. That is why investing is hard and sometimes buying shares and waiting is a lot less risky and easier to make money than trying to time the market with options. I still play options, but I am very risk tolerant and understand the risks.
@fjm9898 - I think that you are looking at options wrong. You need to look at option cost as a percentage of underlying share price. You will then notice that YGE options are even more expensive than CSIQ.
CSIQ may also go back for more so you never know, after all they registered for $200m mixed shelf offering and only raised $50m. I don't think they need more though. If they do need more it is because business is booming like crazy and they need to buy new capacity or fund new power plant projects but that would be stupid if they don't find a buyer to fund it first.
As much as I like solar, they have been going up like crazy over the past week or even more. I mean how long can this last? There has to be a correction some time right?
I would like to believe that a stock can go up 10 or 20 days in a row, but I don't believe that is possible. Are there any stats on this stuff.
Sooner or later these stocks will correct 10% - 20% and give a much better entry point. Then again if they go up another 50% before correcting 10% you missed out on the whole rally. That is why investing is hard and sometimes buying shares and waiting is a lot less risky and easier to make money than trying to time the market with options. I still play options, but I am very risk tolerant and understand the risks.
@fjm9898 - I think that you are looking at options wrong. You need to look at option cost as a percentage of underlying share price. You will then notice that YGE options are even more expensive than CSIQ.
I understand that Sleepy but i was saying JKS was real expensive compared to the rest of them for this Short term play.
Like i said this is purely a lottery play. No real math behind it. Its go buy some DOTM calls for cheap and see if one or multiple of these stocks takes off and make a multibagger. Its a pretty crazy and far out there play that most likely wont pay out at all. But image if the solars all continued to be red hot and all of them hit.
Not saying i am going to do it all yet either, it was plainly just an idea.
I have set up all the 50cent orders on all of these stocks and i am going to sleep on them and figure out which if any of these lottery tickets i am going to keep.
Like i said this is purely a lottery play. No real math behind it. Its go buy some DOTM calls for cheap and see if one or multiple of these stocks takes off and make a multibagger. Its a pretty crazy and far out there play that most likely wont pay out at all. But image if the solars all continued to be red hot and all of them hit.
Not saying i am going to do it all yet either, it was plainly just an idea.
I have set up all the 50cent orders on all of these stocks and i am going to sleep on them and figure out which if any of these lottery tickets i am going to keep.
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I think this is not entirely correct. The strike price will always stay the same. Only what you get for that price will change.
In your example the holder of one share would gain $26 "overnight" ($13 -> $39). He would triple his unleveraged money, while the holder of the $10strike-call would have also only tripled his HIGLY leveraged money. This cannot be correct. If in that example the underlying basically triples overnight, then the option must and will still have much higher leverage compared to the stock.
I suggest it would be handled as follows:
Let's assume SCTY bought TSL and every holder of TSL received one SCTY share.
If you had a call with a $10 strike price you would simply have the right to call 100 shares of SCTY for each contract for $1.000 (100 x $10).
If the deal would be 1 SCTY share for every 2 TSL shares, then the option holder would simply receive 50 shares for one contract, still at the same strike of $10.
Now, if it is not a merger, but a cash-buyout then the holder of the option will receive a cash payout.
Example: SCTY overtakes TSL via cash-payout. Let's assume, TSL trades at $13, SCTY pays $20 cash for every share of TSL.
The holder of the $10-strike-call will therefore receive 100 x $10 for each contract ($20 - $10 strike).
It is important to note here, that all time premium of the option will be lost in this case.
Example: Let's say you had a 2016-LEAP-call-option on TSL, strike $15 that was trading at 7$ at time of the buyout.
You will just receive the intrinsic value in this case ($5), and all extrinsic (=time) value will be lost.
http://www.ehow.com/about_6218376_call-options-adjusted-merger_.html
I think there could be some mergers in the future in the solar sector, but I believe, those will all be mergers, where the stockholder of company A will be paid with stock of company b, and not cash-buyouts (for the simple reason that most solar companies are not swimming in cash...)
I hope I am right, otherwise LEAPS on solar stocks would be even more expensive than they already are. If ever I would see the chance of a cash-buyout of a company I owned, I would sell my OTM-LEAPS and either go in (shortterm) ITM options or in stock.
Looking for some thoughts on a few things. I got hammered on solar options after Q2 and am holding some jan14 calls from preQ2, CSIQ17, SOL7.50 and SPWR39 (tip of the hat to fjm9898). The rest of my burgeoned portfolio of house money, thanks tsla, is now 48% TSLA, and 14% each of CSIQ, JASO, SOL and TSL. I am young, have a high income and thus have a high risk tolerance. I am very bullish on Solar and my gut is telling me to hold onto the options through Q3 at least. Wise play or should I sell the options ASAP and buy stock for the long haul?
Norse
Active Member
Lol, pretty much identical story that I have. Im not sure what advice to give. I got 70% in stock, and 30% in options.
But I bet we all like this news on CSIQ. This will go into Q3, which means I am going to position myself for CSIQ having a good Q3.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1860768&highlight=
And there it hit maintstream media. http://www.4-traders.com/CANADIAN-S...o-Solar-Power-Plants-to-TransCanada-17315981/
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borat99
Member
Wow... Closed on last day of Q3. Thanks for sharing. By the way, when do you find the time to sleep?
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