Diluted the cost on my SOL and JASO options today. Hopefully we start to see things pick back up now that earnings are around the corner. Maybe if people see companies like SPWR do well this week they will start to load up on other Chinese solars in anticipation of their respective earnings reports.
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Good call on stock and LEAPS. Solar stocks have been going up and down in huge swings and nothing will change in the near future. The trend though has been up, and I expect it to continue and so does DB.
I lost 30% of my portfolio over the last two days, but I don't care because I knew this would happen. And my portfolio is still higher than it was last week even after those losses. I am sticking to my strategy to buy and hold and hope for the best. No reason to trade in and out, because you will never time the market right with these solar stocks.
ssq
Member
I picked up some JASO last friday only to see another big drop today. I am tempted to pick up more solar stocks like HSOL, CSIQ, JKS, SOL given that I really don't see any sensible news/reasons for the global slowdown on Solar stocks. Anyone care to educate me why the sudden drop and which ones of the solar players do you recommend for a short term ride up (profit from the senseless dip, not planning long term holding).
ssq
Member
I see. I plan to watch out how the solar stocks fare tomorrow and possibly load up some more if I see weakness. Did you have any favorites amongst HSOL, CSIQ, JKS, SOL? HSOL for instance took a pretty hard beating in the last week.
Just make sure you are a buy and hold investor. If you are talking about stock, then my favorites are CSIQ and SPWR, since these are the two best companies.
JKS is probably a little oversold, but I think some Bloomberg "expert" (who has been talking solars down for a while) claimed that JKS sells panels to itself and that's why it tanked. I have not researched JKS enough to comment on this, but that is the reason for the huge JKS sell-off. Probably a great buying opportunity but I am not sure how seriously people are taking this guy or if the accusations have any merit (my limited understanding on the topic is that they don't have merit, but please research yourself).
JASO and SOL are my two favorite value picks, they only need a hint of good news to take off. But as you can see no news could be detrimental. These are long-term buy and hold investments that can pay-off quickly or slowly (or never, but then the whole sector would have to tank unless there is some fraud or force majeure event).
I don't know much about HSOL, but the solar investors I do know prefer SOL over HSOL since they both have the same market cap.
And lastly, people only focus on how much money they lost and you can't do that if you want to make sound investment decisions. I lost a lot of (paper profits) money too over the past two days, but I still have more than I had last week. Stocks go up and down, solar stocks go up a lot more and down a lot more. If you invest in solar you have to understand this concept. So if you are getting in then do it now and plan to hold for a long time. All of these stocks are down 15%-30% from their peaks on Thursday. They may go down more today, but I am not sure if they have much further to go. Even if they do go down more, you still bought at a 30% discount compared to others who bought on Thursday.
As much as you can't get greedy when cashing out gains on the way up, you also can't get greedy on the way down looking for an entry point. You had the right idea: buy some on pullback on Friday, then buy some more on another pullback on Monday. If they pullback again 5%-10% today, I would probably put in the rest of my money to work because they can't go down forever unless you think these stocks are worthless. This is just my investment strategy, but everyone has a different risk tolerance and financial goal, so please make your own investment decisions accordingly.
Gtoffo
Member
JASO back above 10$. I have but a small position in JASO but I'm glad it's recovering a little.
CSIQ also going up nicely.
Solar stocks are displaying their usual "upwards ramp" behavior: a slow and steady raise throughout the day. Might be a good sign that the good times are back.
CSIQ also going up nicely.
Solar stocks are displaying their usual "upwards ramp" behavior: a slow and steady raise throughout the day. Might be a good sign that the good times are back.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I shifted some SPWR money over to SOL. I got SOL at $4.16 so was able to see all 10% it went up today while SPWR "only" went up 4% today so it ended up being "smart" for today. I did this I've been real heavy in SPWR and wanted to shift some of it somewhere else. I wanted to move it to JASO or SOL. After some research last night and the fact I'm already as heavy as I wanted to be in JASO I picked SOL.
Here's to hoping SPWR has a good ER tomorrow and it brings everybody up.
Here's to hoping SPWR has a good ER tomorrow and it brings everybody up.
I have a tiny amount of money I was considering throwing at the weekly, but I really have no idea what to expect so that feels akin to spinning the roulette wheel.
SPWR getting a pop is purely going to be on guidance. they have been at full capacity for some time now so they cant grow (Q2 took a massive hit because of that) If they havent expanded their capacity or at least tell us they have more coming online in Q4 then they are probably going to take a beating again. I looked and cant find any proof that their will be new capacity. Best info I found was a possible partnership with another company in 2014. I dont know if that is going to be enough.
ckessel,
with solar stocks being so volatile and the uncertainty associated with earnings, I would recommend spending the money on a LEAP rather than weekly options. If spwr disappoints in any way, there is time to recover with the LEAP. The weekly would be worthless.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Or even stock, lol. I learned this the hard way last ER. SPWR was supposed to have an awesome quarter, and they did, but guidance wasn't what the street wanted so down the stock went! My stock came back with a vengeance but the monthly options **poof** tax write-off.
You can still make good money in solar with stock!
I also feel like working with options is different for each company and you have to be tracking it for a while to get a good grasp of how it moves. I've watched TSLA enough to understand it but these solar companies are pretty different (IV, volume, etc). Having said that, with a lot of these stocks going pretty high pretty fast you can still make money but there is more risk obviously. I've gotten some options but recently have been focusing on shares. Got some SOL, CSIQ and SPWR yesterday and don't regret it so far
Hmm, so riddle me this, sort of the same question in reverse. I've got a block of November 16th options on SPWR I bought a few weeks ago. If you already had the options, would you sell and buy stock/LEAPS?
Depends on your tolerance to lose that cash. If you willing to gamble it, hold them. If not change over to LEAPS at the minimum. I really have no way to know which way SPWR is going to go as there is no information on expanding its production line, which is what hurt them last ER. Is this no information meaning they dont have anything? or are they hiding it? and even if they have something, is it enough to make the market happy?
I am slightly bearish on their ER report due to the lack of knowledge on increased production (Disclaimer i am no expert so dont blame me for a bad trade) which is why i am only limping in for the ER. That is my opinion and i am trading accordingly. If someone can show me some hard data they have expanded then i would be on board.
I am slightly bearish on their ER report due to the lack of knowledge on increased production (Disclaimer i am no expert so dont blame me for a bad trade) which is why i am only limping in for the ER. That is my opinion and i am trading accordingly. If someone can show me some hard data they have expanded then i would be on board.
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Which solar is reporting Q3 earnings first? I am focused on earnings on the ones in my portfolio, which are basically the ones most discussed here. I am planning to sell a portion of my calls before earnings and don't want to miss the boat because some bellwether solar that is not on my radar reports early.
Norse
Active Member
SPWR FSLR and SCTY in that order. The Chinese have not announced dates yet.
Btw, CSIQ did not follow SPWR down after earnings last time..
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