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#2,442
Some of the solars have been taking a beating the last couple weeks. Made the mistake of Nov/Dec/Jan options, largely ATM, back in mid Oct after I'd been reading this thread for a couple weeks and started to feel like I understood the discussions. Unfortunately was a sort of local maxima for some of the solars (SOL in particular has been terrible for me). In the last week I've been converting the options to pure stock, but a couple will likely be complete losses. I'd have done better with straight stock purchases across the board. Fortunately, CSIQ and JKS performed well enough to more than offset losses in the others, but my poor choices certainly had me under performing where I could have been.
 
#2,444
chillong said:
there is a reason in my opinion. The cheap iranian oil which will pull down oil prices in 2014 seems to be the reason + I guess we are currently in a solar correction phase. Nothing exceptional after + 10x gains this year so far.
Click to expand...

Good points. I was thinking more of the latter although I did see the deal with the Iranians. I was more worried about the China-Japan island spat.
 
#2,445
chillong said:
there is a reason in my opinion. The cheap iranian oil which will pull down oil prices in 2014 seems to be the reason + I guess we are currently in a solar correction phase. Nothing exceptional after + 10x gains this year so far.
Click to expand...

Why would cheaper oil depress solar so badly? Doesn't solar largely compete with natural gas and coal? I know oil is used for some electricity production, but I thought it was a relatively minor in comparison.
 
#2,446
ckessel said:
Why would cheaper oil depress solar so badly? Doesn't solar largely compete with natural gas and coal? I know oil is used for some electricity production, but I thought it was a relatively minor in comparison.
Click to expand...


don't let facts get in the way of this. market reacts emotionally many times and not rationally. its really quite amusing (although painful financially today). Lets hope it jumps up a similar amount tomorrow in its usual over-correction to an overreaction.
 
#2,447
palmer_md said:
don't let facts get in the way of this. market reacts emotionally many times and not rationally. its really quite amusing (although painful financially today). Lets hope it jumps up a similar amount tomorrow in its usual over-correction to an overreaction.
Click to expand...
this. I think it is an combination of different factors, as sleepy is saying all the time: Don't try to understand the short-term market reaction's on solar.
I didn't want to imply that falling oil prices will cause lower solar demand (might have a very small correlation) but just that the market reacted that way, because maybe some are shifting positions in their energy-sector stocks and the market anticipated falling prices. I am pretty sure that today some stop-losses got triggered as well, it was quite a drop in the first two hours.
 
#2,450
There is always a reason why solars move the way they do. They usually move in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons. I remember a couple of months ago a report came out the poly prices went up a bunch, so the whole sector rallied big time. This was dumb, because poly is the raw material and higher poly means lower margins for CSIQ, JKS, TSL, etc. But the market took at as a good sign that demand is picking up.

What I am trying to get to is that if you want to trade solars then you have to be on top of every single piece of news out there, and then you still have to guess how the market is going to interpret that news. This is impossible to do with solar, because the more research you do on solar, the more you learn the truth. So you will end up interpretting news completely differently than that market does, because the market still applies the same principles to solar that it has been applying since 2008; even though it is a completely different market out there.

You will not win by trading solars short-term. It really is a buy and hold investment.
 
#2,451
sleepyhead said:
There is always a reason why solars move the way they do. They usually move in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons. I remember a couple of months ago a report came out the poly prices went up a bunch, so the whole sector rallied big time. This was dumb, because poly is the raw material and higher poly means lower margins for CSIQ, JKS, TSL, etc. But the market took at as a good sign that demand is picking up.

What I am trying to get to is that if you want to trade solars then you have to be on top of every single piece of news out there, and then you still have to guess how the market is going to interpret that news. This is impossible to do with solar, because the more research you do on solar, the more you learn the truth. So you will end up interpretting news completely differently than that market does, because the market still applies the same principles to solar that it has been applying since 2008; even though it is a completely different market out there.

You will not win by trading solars short-term. It really is a buy and hold investment.
Click to expand...

I took this opportunity to buy CSIQ and JASO. there is no reason for Solar to drop because of bigger supply of oil report. oil is a temporary source of energy. Solar in my book is a permanent long term source of energy.

but like most of you my portfolio had better days.
 
#2,457
#2,458
Haha, that's why I want one. Actually I want to buy one not lease it. They need to make this available to buy. If they don't, Magnum, Outback, or SMA will. And likely within the next 5 years.

This unit dramatically simplifies installation and cost. This concept without the leasing is a huge game changer.
 
#2,459
Theshadows said:
Haha, that's why I want one. Actually I want to buy one not lease it. They need to make this available to buy. If they don't, Magnum, Outback, or SMA will. And likely within the next 5 years.

This unit dramatically simplifies installation and cost. This concept without the leasing is a huge game changer.
Click to expand...


I think, along with Solar Panels, this would be a great "Option" to choose when people buy a new construction home as the cost will get diluted into the home price. For an exist home owner cost has gotta come down even for a lease unless you are wealthy and can outright buy one whether living in the city or the boonies. Eventually prices will come down. What's interesting is the battery has a Tesla logo on it, so Tesla is already making some sales against its accounting books...? That is news to me. So this Giga factory will produce these as well huh?

That said JASO earnings better bring the mood back this week for Solar for a happy Thanksgiving. I crapped my pants the whole day today :)
 
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