*sigh*, my ability to mis-time things is insane. I sold about 60% of my solar holding yesterday shortly before sleepy's post. I'd been hoping for some pop, but it'd been weeks of flat or decline. I'd wanted to reallocate partly back to TSLA and partly to some non-investment expenses I'd been holding off on as long as I could. And the solar I sold? Yea, the ones doing the absolute best so far today: CSIQ, TSL. (I still have JASO/JKS/SPWR). Take whatever I do for timing and do the opposite.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
borat99
Member
StapleGun
Member
Way to give 110% out there!
Also great call on the (at least temporary) bottom sleepy. I'm waiting for some funds to clear but I plan to double my SPWR holdings soon in my very long-term account.
InTheShadows
Active Member
28.60 has a lot of resistance for csiq. Just logged in and it looks like it might try and make a run for it before close.
Not quite on topic since Bright Source isn't investible for most people but it's kind of interesting.
Graphic: Large-scale 'solar farm' technology - Data Desk - Los Angeles Times
Graphic: Large-scale 'solar farm' technology - Data Desk - Los Angeles Times
That article (and the technology described) looks several years old. Fortunately the photovoltaic panels built by the companies Sleepy recommended will not fry desert wildlife like Bright Source's concentrating mirrors.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Csiq gets another plant.
SolarIndustryMag.com: Canadian Solar Supplies 8.7 MW Of Solar Modules For Project In Mexico
And some new DOE loan programs.
SolarIndustryMag.com: The DOEs Loan Programs Office Banks On U.S. Solar
SolarIndustryMag.com: Canadian Solar Supplies 8.7 MW Of Solar Modules For Project In Mexico
And some new DOE loan programs.
SolarIndustryMag.com: The DOEs Loan Programs Office Banks On U.S. Solar
JKS: http://www.jinkosolar.com/press_detail_718.html Hopefully helping Japan consumers.
Calling the bottom: I am a relative newbie to solar but from the information here and researching the past and present of solar I think there will be multiple 'bottoms'. As sleepy has pointed out it seems buy and hold is the only possible successful strategy for small retail buyers like me (most, if not all of us). The 'big boys' make mega dollars by controlling short term prices/swings. We retail investors have to hope that the long term story (need for alternative energy sources) for solar actually forces the share prices up.
Calling the bottom: I am a relative newbie to solar but from the information here and researching the past and present of solar I think there will be multiple 'bottoms'. As sleepy has pointed out it seems buy and hold is the only possible successful strategy for small retail buyers like me (most, if not all of us). The 'big boys' make mega dollars by controlling short term prices/swings. We retail investors have to hope that the long term story (need for alternative energy sources) for solar actually forces the share prices up.
Last edited:
the market giveth yesterday and then taketh away today.
I havent touched any positions of mine in weeks and i am trying to figure out whats the best place to add to ATM, and when. I am still watching this ride and watching my account trickle away.
interesting to watch YGE move up as everything else goes down though.
I havent touched any positions of mine in weeks and i am trying to figure out whats the best place to add to ATM, and when. I am still watching this ride and watching my account trickle away.
interesting to watch YGE move up as everything else goes down though.
Yea, the solar run in the last 2 months has been rough. I made the mistake of options rather than stock, so it's just pure gone with no chance of ever recovering it. I just didn't understand at that point in time that 2-3 months was far to short a term.
JASO Dec 21 2013 11 Call , -100%
JKS Dec 21 2013 27 Call, -80.88%
SOL Jan 18 2014 5 Call, -100%
SOL Apr 19 2014 5.5 Put, -87.50 %
SPWR Jan 17 2015 25 Call, -37.67%
Expensive lesson, but nothing to do about it now. What little I've got left are items in 2015 calls or stock, where it'll sit. Maybe within a couple years the truly long term holdings will bring it all back to break even, though it'll take a multi-bagger on those remaining items to make it happen.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Today was definitely another "ouch." It's getting to the point where we need many crazy days to get back to where we were but the good thing about solar is that it's possible, we just have to be patient. Assuming nothing big picture changes (hasn't so far) we know that there has to be some good runup prior to the next ER at the latest. It just stinks to already have been all in prior to all this downward movement.
It hurts to say but Buy and Hold!
It hurts to say but Buy and Hold!
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
If these solar stocks shoot up like crazy, and then drop like crazy, why is buy and hold the dominant strategy? It seems like it would be "sell when things seem good, and buy when things seem in-the-dumps". I feel like "buy and hold" is a good strategy when the stock moves up only a penny a day and so there's never any point in trading in and out of it. For solar, the true best strategy would instead be a rapid turn over buying the dips and selling the rips. For instance, buying two days ago into SPWR at 28+ and then selling as it approached 30, and then buying again at 28.00.
I'm just making a statement, not really doing the above. Maybe a bit with options (I sold puts when spwr hit 28.60 two days ago, then sold calls when spwr hit 30.01 yesterday). It just seems to me that buy and hold isn't necessarily the best strategy.
I'd be saying "buy right now and sell when it appears solar is looking good again".
Good luck with that strategy. I highly doubt that you will be able to outperform the buy and hold investor by trading in and out of positions. It is not as easy as it sounds.
After considering transaction fees I can almost guarantee that you will not outperform the buy and hold strategy.
In restrospect over the last couple months, completely agree. But I think the risk is missing a TSLA-like multibagger when you're going in and out to make small money. Also, the transaction fees will add up. Another thing that has been screwing up my trading personally is I got two of my accounts restricted for 90 days buying and selling with unsettled funds because I didn't understand I had to wait 3 days. Super annoying.
Sorry to hear about the 90 day thing. They call it an SEC thing but it really depends on your account balance. Make it fatter and they will say "what 90 day restriction?". World is crooked.
As far as Solar, if I had bought and held since I got in (November) I would have been deep deep in the red. I have been in and out and it has reduced my losses considerably but still lost money in Solar. Chinese solar charts are looking pretty bearish at the moment. I have been disciplined in keeping my minimum portfolio balance where I want it for the year by diversifying into Tech and trading Solar. I don't care if I miss out on some gains when Solar is on the way up. I just don't see any catalysts for a massive upturn just yet, unless Chinese companies start pre-announcing, etc. We have finite lives and we are talking about the stock market where anything can happen. Have been burned before thinking too much about long term so am protecting myself with yearly targets. Good luck guys.
Hope it will be a good solar day: Canadian Solar Announces 100MW Module Supply Agreement with Zhenfa New Energy in China
Especially: "Clearly, Chinese demand for solar modules going into the first quarter of 2014 remains strong, and based on our planning sessions with major developers and project off takers, we currently expect demand for solar modules in China to exceed 10GW in 2014."
Especially: "Clearly, Chinese demand for solar modules going into the first quarter of 2014 remains strong, and based on our planning sessions with major developers and project off takers, we currently expect demand for solar modules in China to exceed 10GW in 2014."
That is funny because it happened to me in the beginning of the year. I didn't know about that rule in one of my accounts, so I was buying SPWR in the morning to scalp a few dollars and then would sell at the end of the day. My account got restricted for 90 days to trade only on settled cash. This is very annoying, because if you sell anything on Monday, you can't buy with that cash until Thursday.
Now that I was aware of the rule, I tried not to sell my stocks that I bought within the past three days. Even though I tried, I somehow failed and once again found out that I made 3 separate sales (over the past few months) before the cash settled for the purchase. I am now once again in the 90 day restriction period. This turned out to be somewhat of a blessing in disguise this time around since the stocks I wanted to purchase got cheaper. But it is still very annoying and hard to trade with this restriction in place.
Muskol
Member
My understanding is that the 3 day settlement also applies to when you buy. So if you sell on Monday you can buy on Tuesday - the sale cash will settle on Thursday and the buy will settle Friday and you're good...
Similar threads
- Locked
