Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Wow, great day so far! Glad for buy and hold!

If I remember right Sleepy told us that we could see a nice rally starting January 2014. Great start to 2014!

 

[fjm9898]

looks like the market had to spoil today's fun but with decent volume the strength looks good. Real question will be how bad the profit takers are going to be off this run. Or maybe the rally continues tomorrow due to a down market day?

EDIT:
Well looks like the rally still has some steam in it after all! CSIQ is heading to challenge its 52week high.

 

[borat99]

looks like the market had to spoil today's fun but with decent volume the strength looks good. Real question will be how bad the profit takers are going to be off this run. Or maybe the rally continues tomorrow due to a down market day?

EDIT:
Well looks like the rally still has some steam in it after all! CSIQ is heading to challenge its 52week high.

CSIQ went from ~6% gain to almost 12% around 12-ish (ET). Didn't see anything special on CSIQ other than the 10MW announcement earlier in the morning. Anyway, I hope the profit takers/day traders aren't too short-sighted again in solar.

 

[fjm9898]

YGE had a similar second wind as CSIQ. YGE is on good volume.
I am still on the fence about what the day traders are going to do. We could see a big sell off at the end of day or tomorrow, or if the market is happy we could see a second day of rally. All i have to say its amazing to see CSIQ breaking the 52week again with all the other solar players still pretty far off their highs.

Good thing i bought some YGE Jan15 $4calls back when they were left for dead two weeks ago.

 

[borat99]

I am still on the fence about what teh day traders are going to do. we could see a big sell off at the end of day or tomorrow. or if the market is happy we could see a second day of rally.

Is anyone here subscribed to one of those InvestorLive-like profit.ly-like chatrooms? That would be one way to find out.

 

[sleepyhead]

looks like the market had to spoil today's fun but with decent volume the strength looks good. Real question will be how bad the profit takers are going to be off this run. Or maybe the rally continues tomorrow due to a down market day?

EDIT:
Well looks like the rally still has some steam in it after all! CSIQ is heading to challenge its 52week high.

The down market is actually a blessing for solar stocks. Look at the past two months and every day the market was up ~1%, solar got hammered. The reason for this is that hot money was moving out of solar into other stocks, even big caps.

Now that there is a market sell-off today, money is flowing from highly valued names into companies that are undervalued, i.e. solar.

This is not to say that this will last long, because the first 10 months of 2013 had solars booming on days where the market was up 1%. The market changes very quickly and it is hard to spot sentiment shifts in advance.

 

[fjm9898]

YGE also got some tv coverage, only for a second.
Was on the final Trade - http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000232479&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

- - - Updated - - -

Very true Sleepy. We have seen the solar sector be quite contrarian to the overall market alot in the past. Either way, great day, though i would not be surprised to see alot of profit taking this afternoon and tomorrow morning.

 

[Convert2013]

The down market is actually a blessing for solar stocks. Look at the past two months and every day the market was up ~1%, solar got hammered. The reason for this is that hot money was moving out of solar into other stocks, even big caps.

Now that there is a market sell-off today, money is flowing from highly valued names into companies that are undervalued, i.e. solar.



This is not to say that this will last long, because the first 10 months of 2013 had solars booming on days where the market was up 1%. The market changes very quickly and it is hard to spot sentiment shifts in advance.

This is exactly the case. Money managers are moving and adding money to cheaper growth stories. Volume is pretty good. I bought some more CSIQ and JKS this morning and will be adding more through the month...

 

[fjm9898]

my Phone goes ding! CSIQ above $34, what a run! SPWR back above $32

- - - Updated - - -

Ding again! JASO hits $10
Late day run by just about everyone. very interesting.

 

[callnaveen]

Can anyone please guide me, right now I am holding Apr'14 $25 calls, is it better to sell those today and capture the profit from today's run and get again back in tomorrow or so.....? Or its better to hold more days ahead?

 

[fjm9898]

First we kind of need to know what stock your talking about...
Are you in a 401k tax deferred account or a regular account?
with transaction fees and taxes(in a non 401k account), getting out and back in might not really net you much and run the risk of missing even more rally tomorrow. Taxes are not as big of a deal because either way your going to have short term gains unless to transition to LEAPs, but doing two short term trains you will lose a bit more in taxes then one short term trade.
Also the IV is up due to the run, so options prices probably wont fall back to the same levels as fast as they came up today.

Personally i just hold now. I stopped messing around with getting in an out. If I believe in the company, the stock should only go up, so why jump around.

 

[ckessel]

Man oh man, imagine where I'd be if I'd bought Jan options back in October rather than Dec options (now expired) for CSIQ, JASO, and KNDI...

Ah well.

 

[callnaveen]

I am sorry, I am talking about CSIQ and its today its price is doubled from the price of I purchased.

- - - Updated - - -

And its in regular account only.

 

[Convert2013]

We haven't since this kinda rally in over a month. My weighting in Solar was 65% before year end 2013 and want to increase to about 70 to 75%, but prices are goin up too fast. The rally could continue if fund managers keep buying in Jan. CSIQ has a meeting on Jan 15th where they will talk about the Solar sector and to institutional investors. With continued deals being announced all around I think by march time frame there is a potential for a 2-bagger for many Solars. I am still sticking with the ones that are profitable but looking at a 23% gain at YGE makes me wonder whether its worth the risk of dipping into some of the other big Chinese plays... Deutsche has a price target of $10 on YGE and it's trading in mid $6 range. Hmmm...

 

[bonnie]

Just want to say thanks to those of you who have helped me learn about solar. This has been a great way to start off 2014.

- - - Updated - - -

(All 'buy and hold'.)

 

[callnaveen]

Thanks a lot for advice fjm9898, I will was holding these for the past 3 months, I will continue to hold and see how it goes. I got the same situation with JKS also, almost doubled from the day I purchased.

 

[InTheShadows]

Almost all of my solar is in LEAPS now. It's nice to see the march and Aprils I had written off building value again. If they get back to the money I'll be really happy.

I'm really happy for the people that doubled down on them a month ago. I didn't have any cash to invest at that time.

 

[fjm9898]

We haven't since this kinda rally in over a month. My weighting in Solar was 65% before year end 2013 and want to increase to about 70 to 75%, but prices are goin up too fast. The rally could continue if fund managers keep buying in Jan. CSIQ has a meeting on Jan 15th where they will talk about the Solar sector and to institutional investors. With continued deals being announced all around I think by march time frame there is a potential for a 2-bagger for many Solars. I am still sticking with the ones that are profitable but looking at a 23% gain at YGE makes me wonder whether its worth the risk of dipping into some of the other big Chinese plays... Deutsche has a price target of $10 on YGE and it's trading in mid $6 range. Hmmm...

IMO, if you are going to get into YGE like i did some time ago, get ITM LEAPs, just in case. That way if they do carpet bomb, like SOL did, then your not going to go broke. I got into YGE before the down turn, and stupidly right at the peak, and doubled down around the bottom. Today brought me from 50% down (after averaging down) back to even, so its all profits from here. The $4 LEAPs look great because the premium is low and its the added security of being ITM. Just have to watch out for YGE debt crush, they really need Margins to move higher go get out of their massive hole.

- - - Updated - - -

Ding! TSL back at $15

 

[aznt1217]

Man I sold CSIQ at $25 at a loss... to buy TSLA what a bad move, definitely did not see this price action coming so soon.

 

[Convert2013]

IMO, if you are going to get into YGE like i did some time ago, get ITM LEAPs, just in case. That way if they do carpet bomb, like SOL did, then your not going to go broke. I got into YGE before the down turn, and stupidly right at the peak, and doubled down around the bottom. Today brought me from 50% down (after averaging down) back to even, so its all profits from here. The $4 LEAPs look great because the premium is low and its the added security of being ITM. Just have to watch out for YGE debt crush, they really need Margins to move higher go get out of their massive hole.


Ding! TSL back at $15

Congrats on being close to head above water on YGE. I'm still worried about their debt, but more interesting is which companies the Chinese government will continue its support going forward. Some will go out of business or get bought-up this year is my guess. Companies like YGE can be "magically" without debt if they get Chinese government to support them... YGE is big, and Solarcity likes selling their products (I had a sales guy from Solarcity pitch YGE panels over and over again). I am all stock, long.
I want to also thank everyone here including Sleepy, Shadows, and fjm for their contributions to get my research started on Solar.