Based on the AWD deliveries (P and NP both), that's going to come back to bite them.
At least till now, nobody but Day 1 and *one* single Day 2 person on the Tesla forums in their waiting rooms has gotten a VIN yet. That's it, and it goes without saying that current deliveries have been line waiters.
I'm sitting way back in the line at 1/30/17 and unlike others I've had absolutely no change in my Tesla account... and probably won't for months at this rate.
The fact is Tesla absolutely appears to be honoring reservation date once they got the majority of the RWD stockpile delivered, and the difference between early SR reservation and no reservation at this point is likely going to be at least $3750 when talking rebate, and depending how many reservations converted to the various LR options it might even be the full $7500.
Just bad math, if you want a Tesla Model 3, hold the reservation.