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another rediculous alpha article...recall rate tells us production rate

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ppl, Jun 20, 2013.

  1. ppl

    ppl Member

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    multiple problems with the analysis.
    1. doesn't include cars fixed at factory once problem discovered that did not yet leave the factory
    2. doesn't include any loaner cars that may have been produced during that period
    3. doesn't include any cars made that were going to be shipped to europe
    4. assumes all cars produced were welded by same robot

    otherwise a fine thought out article. i don't know why anyone would follow their advise anymore. they would still be short with an entry point of 27 or less
     
  2. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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  3. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1511982-tesla-recall-has-some-implications-for-production-and-guidance?source=msn

    which he bases on the following statement from the WSJ:
    By JOSEPH B. WHITE

    Tesla Motors Inc. is recalling about 260 of its Model S electric sedans to fix a rear-seat latch that could malfunction in a crash.

    Tesla recalls some Model S electric sedans after company quality tests reveal a faulty latch, and Chrysler bows to regulator pressure to recall older-model Jeeps. Christina Rogers joins Lunch Break with a look at what this means for drivers and the companies.
    The Silicon Valley car maker said Wednesday that it acted after discovering the potential problem in its own quality tests, and hasn't received customer complaints. Federal regulators weren't involved, the company said.

    A company spokeswoman said the recall affects about 20% of the 1,300 electric luxury vehicles built between May 10 and June 8.

    Tesla said it will pick up the cars involved, reinforce the seat-latch assemblies, and return them to customers.


    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323893504578555184271575380.html


    And his overall thesis is that the number is reflective of demand, not factory capability.
     
  4. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    So over a month period he sees a missing 300ish cars (made and delivered) and can extrapolate that over a full year. Then proceeds to assume that it has to do with demand? And that period had a fairly major holiday weekend present in it. And he doesn't even consider that Tesla may have stopped delivering cars after the problem was found. Or that even with this production and delivery rate US deliveries will still be over expectation of 15,000 US cars per year.

    And then he lumps backorder in with demand. The reason why Q1 had guidance of 4,900 cars was because Tesla was clearing through backlog. Q2 had 4,500 because they were still clearing through backlog. If he looks at these two numbers, and total US deliveries of 15,000 this year Q3 AND Q4 only need a guidance of 5,600 cars. I see their current production is WELL above that.
     
  5. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    They didn't even. They just fixed it before delivery.

    E.g. from here (day before the recall announcement):

    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17909-ALMOST-HERE-From-order-to-Delivery-in-17-DAYS/page2?p=366402#post366402

    "There was a bit of a minor delay during delivery, minor repair was mandated for rear seat latches, they needed to be bolted, not welded connection."


    I think the WSJ was just a slight misquote, and what actually happens is that if you look at the filing they discovered the issue at least on June 14th (first filing), but most likely beforehand.
    http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM440239/RCDNN-13V249-4963.pdf

    Reading the background it seems they discovered the issue on June 8th, after which point they stopped using a "slide hammer" to affix that bracket.

    And then, regarding:
    "1228 vehicles released outside of Tesla's control"

    All of the cars made before June 8th that wasn't delivered yet wasn't "outside of Tesla's control", and they were just fixed on delivery.

    That probably covers most cars between June 1st and June 8th.
     
  6. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Paulo has been pushing this idea of reduced US demand for a while now. He doesn't seem to be convincing anyone but himself.
     
  7. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

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    I feel sorry for anyone who reads terribly misinformed columns like this and gets duped into shorting Tesla. I mean, sure they "deserved" it and it's caveat emptor when it comes to free investment advice online, but I also don't think there's enough accountability for a long record of bad calls, aka John Petersen.

    Also, I think there's a contingent of people out there who really want to believe garbage like this and when it doesn't pan out they blame everyone - Tesla, government - but themselves or the authors they listened to.
     

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