Anyone reconsidering their order after seeing how Elon is reacting to COVID-19?

[mspohr]

OK, but still Not Ventilators. He said he sent Ventilators. I expect that kinda "mistake" from non technical folks, ie politians, not a CEO of a tech company.

Tesla's Elon Musk clarifies confusion on ventilators donated to hospitals in need

Musk clarified that the hospitals who requested Tesla’s help during this time were given “exact specifications” of the ventilators they would be receiving. This step ensured that hospitals would be able to use the donated ventilators for patients and that the machines would not sit around unused.

The Food and Drug Administration has clarified that CPAP machines, which are usually used to treat sleep apnea, could be utilized to treat patients with non-severe symptoms, according to an article from FierceBiotech.com. The FDA took this step in response to a shortage in ventilator machines as cases of COVID-19 began to grow in the United States.

Additionally, Musk clarified that it was “very important to provide C/BiPap devices to *prevent* cases from becoming severe. Once severe (intratracheal intubation), survival rates are low.”

 

[liuping]

OK, but still Not Ventilators. He said he sent Ventilators. I expect that kinda "mistake" from non technical folks, ie politians, not a CEO of a tech company.

If you read the link from John Hopkins, it literally says it's a type of ventilator:

"Some medical problems can make it hard for you to breathe. In these cases, you might benefit from bilevel positive airway pressure. It is commonly known as “BiPap” or “BPap.” It is a type of ventilator—a device that helps with breathing."

 

[aerodyne]

If you read the link from John Hopkins, it literally says it's a type of ventilator:

"Some medical problems can make it hard for you to breathe. In these cases, you might benefit from bilevel positive airway pressure. It is commonly known as “BiPap” or “BPap.” It is a type of ventilator—a device that helps with breathing."

Tesla's Elon Musk clarifies confusion on ventilators donated to hospitals in need

Musk clarified that the hospitals who requested Tesla’s help during this time were given “exact specifications” of the ventilators they would be receiving. This step ensured that hospitals would be able to use the donated ventilators for patients and that the machines would not sit around unused.

The Food and Drug Administration has clarified that CPAP machines, which are usually used to treat sleep apnea, could be utilized to treat patients with non-severe symptoms, according to an article from FierceBiotech.com. The FDA took this step in response to a shortage in ventilator machines as cases of COVID-19 began to grow in the United States.

Additionally, Musk clarified that it was “very important to provide C/BiPap devices to *prevent* cases from becoming severe. Once severe (intratracheal intubation), survival rates are low.”

OK, I am glad he clarified. Which kinda indicates my point the initial tweet was misleading to at least some of the general public. I am glad he did what he did, and give him a pass on this one. Still concerned about the delay in other things he promised, but I am happy with what I have...

 

[aerodyne]

If you read the link from John Hopkins, it literally says it's a type of ventilator:

"Some medical problems can make it hard for you to breathe. In these cases, you might benefit from bilevel positive airway pressure. It is commonly known as “BiPap” or “BPap.” It is a type of ventilator—a device that helps with breathing."

Great! Now I know how to avoid the ER and ICU! Initially, I thought PAPs were a long shot, but if Elon And JH say it is OK....

Last week I did the following proof of concept:

Surprised Elon did not think of this and reduce it to practice. Could have set up inventory MS/MX as Mobile ICU's across the country, with the Tesla App to monitor the car and patient at SuC's that are mostly empty now.

 

[mspohr]

Great! Now I know how to avoid the ER and ICU! Initially, I thought PAPs were a long shot, but if Elon And JH say it is OK....

Last week I did the following proof of concept:

Surprised Elon did not think of this and reduce it to practice. Could have set up inventory MS/MX as Mobile ICU's across the country, with the Tesla App to monitor the car and patient at SuC's that are mostly empty now.

It does seem that C/BiPAP would be more useful than a full vent. They can support your respiratory system (especially when used with a O2 concentrator) to improve your chances of recovery and avoid being put on a vent. Once you are on a vent, the prognosis is very poor.

 

[neurocutie]

Probably saved 8-9 million USA lives, vs doing nothing and just letting people spread the virus to everyone in the country. How bad do you think the economy would have been after that, never mind all the sick people who would have been unable to do their jobs. Doing nothing would have been criminal negligence.

I can't that you're wrong... as I said, it will take a long time, at least a year, before we really know... Nobody is suggesting that we should do/have done *nothing*. But crashing the global economy is a huge thing also that I think people also don't yet understand and severely underestimate. It will take years to recover, worse than 2008 now. 10+mil out of a job with more to come. Food storages just being announced now, and the best estimates are that we are still months away from peak. This thing is going to last through the summer if we're lucky. Vaccine still a year away.

The estimate of 8-9mil USA lives saved seems a little high... better estimates are 2mil if we had done close to nothing, 200,000 on the present course. 9mil is 3% total pop, prolly 6-8% of those infected, which there is no previous history for in any country. It will mean that most survivors would know 30-100 acquaintances who have died. I currently only know of one and I am in NY. I also know several infected, but all so far are recovering.

 

[mspohr]

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner :: SSRN

We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

 

[vickh]

Elon is approaching this as a scientist. We should test EVERYONE and could have quarantine everyone who has it or is vulnerable.

 

[BluestarE3]

We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

Not just with 1918, look at China with the current pandemic. Unless they're just lying about their statistics, they are already on the mend a couple of months after the outbreak by aggressively testing, treating and quarantining early on. The Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory is back to cranking out cars in record numbers. Several other countries have now exceeded China in terms of numbers infected and deaths. These countries had a heads-up that this pandemic may be coming their way; a luxury China did not have.

 

[neurocutie]

Not just with 1918, look at China with the current pandemic. Unless they're just lying about their statistics, they are already on the mend a couple of months after the outbreak by aggressively testing, treating and quarantining early on. ... These countries had a heads-up that this pandemic may be coming their way; a luxury China did not have.

China *has* absolutely been lying about their numbers.
Better "model" countries are Taiwan, South Korea... But they took steps that the US would have no stomach for, at least not in the beginning, including a total disregard for their citizen's privacy.
China also clearly benefitted from early knowledge of the virus, including stockpiling masks and ventilators when the rest of the world was sleeping.

Re: post economy, 1918 is of course not an exact model for covid. The Spanish flu was more virulent than covid, and tended to kill the young - those most crucial to getting the economy going again. Covid tends to kill the less economically important elderly population. Also we have more technology now. The less virulent the pandemic is against the most economically vital sector, the less it is necessary to completely crash the economy (like how we don't for the seasonal flu).

So an alternative strategy would have been: near total isolation for those 60 and older, let the rest of the economy continue. I realize that hindsight is easy and even in this case, not yet 20:20.

 

[EVDRVN]

Elon is approaching this as a scientist. We should test EVERYONE and could have quarantine everyone who has it or is vulnerable.

There are many scientists in the Govt and in the public however you can't fix stupid and some people and leaders in our country are just that. Sort of like when people ask me how much gas my car used and I told them none it has no gas tank and they reply, "but how often to you need to go to the gas station". A Tesla is not a hybrid and "Mississippi is never going to be China"

 

[EinSV]

In response to some of the FUD in the press, a Third Row Podcast team member put together a thread on Twitter showing the outpouring of thanks from hospitals, medical personnel and local officials for Tesla's donations of protective gear and non-invasive ventilators.

Viv on Twitter

And here's another one from Henry Ford hospital in Detroit, which has been hit very hard by the virus:

Henry Ford News on Twitter

 

[neurocutie]

Elon is approaching this as a scientist. We should test EVERYONE and could have quarantine everyone who has it or is vulnerable.

That's one of the early major failures in the US and why South Korea is in far better shape. But in the US even now there are not enough tests to go around. Of course the US is larger, but yeah we could have contained it far better... At some expense to personal freedoms and privacy. But our 'leaders" didnt choose this route. Even now some state govenors are oblivious.

 

[mspohr]

So an alternative strategy would have been: near total isolation for those 60 and older, let the rest of the economy continue

Millions would get sick and many die. Immortal. Also bad for the economy.

 

[vickh]

That's one of the early major failures in the US and why South Korea is in far better shape. But in the US even now there are not enough tests to go around. Of course the US is larger, but yeah we could have contained it far better... At some expense to personal freedoms and privacy. But our 'leaders" didnt choose this route. Even now some state govenors are oblivious.

I agree health privacy rules should be suspended for public health emergencies. I believe they have done that for HIPAA.

 

[vickh]

Millions would get sick and many die. Immortal. Also bad for the economy.

why would "many" die if the vulnerable are quarantined? It has to combined with robust testing of ALL of us and we get clearance to see if antibodies are present or healthy before they let us out, a covid free license

Worked in places like Singapore and Sweden. I have yet to see any data on high death rate for young and healthy, other than anecdotal outlier deaths worldwide

 

[neurocutie]

Millions would get sick and many die. Immortal. Also bad for the economy.

I hope you realize that millions in the US *will* get sick, regardless. The only question is when, but its coming. Low estimates are 30%, which is over 100mil. However initially the numbers will be vastly underreported as testing rates in the US are pitiful. Many (like some I personally know) have or will get it and are just riding it out without testing (as suggested by their doc -- testing is so unavailable for most).

We are waiting for one of three things: 1) hoping that Covid is seasonal and the summer brings relief. Possible but not likely, given what is happening in SouthEast Asia, South America, Italy, Spain, Lousiana, Florida, where it is already warm and humid.
2) Herd immunity, but that requires 2/3 of the population to have been infected, i.e. 100mil+
3) A vaccine, but that is a year aways. 3a) effective alternative treatments, but the anit-malerials are so far shown to be ineffective by-in-large and can easily be toxic.

Flattening the curve is about spreading out the load on healthcare, not really reducing cumulative numbers of infections so much -- and at great cost to the economy. At some point we (and certainly Trump) are going to be tired of waiting -- and nobody is going to be willing to wait for the vaccine, a year. So we will pull the trigger, remove the lockdown and yes, millions will get sick, if not already. Hopefully the most vulnerable will be protected somewhat when that happens.

 

[mspohr]

why would "many" die if the vulnerable are quarantined? It has to combined with robust testing of ALL of us and we get clearance to see if antibodies are present or healthy before they let us out, a covid free license

Worked in places like Singapore and Sweden. I have yet to see any data on high death rate for young and healthy, other than anecdotal outlier deaths worldwide

Looks like death rate is about 2% below age 60... so that would be a lot of people.

 

[neurocutie]

Looks like death rate is about 2% below age 60... so that would be a lot of people.

2% is a little high, particularly for those under 30. There is maybe 200mil in the US below 60. At a 30% infection rate, that is 70mil. 2% of that is 1.4million... yeah... the other 199mil are going to get tired of waiting and being jobless soon... and the 1.4mil would have gotten sick anyways at some point. People gotta pay rent and buy food...

 

[mspohr]

2% is a little high, particularly for those under 30. There is maybe 200mil in the US below 60. At a 30% infection rate, that is 70mil. 2% of that is 1.4million... yeah... the other 199mil are going to get tired of waiting and being jobless soon... and the 1.4mil would have gotten sick anyways at some point. People gotta pay rent and buy food...

Nobody has good accurate numbers. We do know it's not a trivial number of people.
The question then becomes: "Do you feel lucky, punk?"