Anyone willing to wait for a USED Model 3?

[slipnslider]

I think one of the greatest things about the EV market is the emergence of available used EVs, which truly makes them available to almost anyone now.

If you're willing to drive a use leaf or fiat, you can have one for a few thousand dollars.
Used i3's are dropping to $17k, only 3-4 years after they cost $50k.
Used Volts can be had for under $10k. Truly a great deal.

Is anyone planning to wait until they can pick up a used M3 for $20-25k?

I've never bought a new car since I just can't justify the depreciation hit that the first owner takes when they drive off the lot. I prefer to be the second owner - avoid initial depreciation, use it til stuff starts to break, then get rid of it before it starts getting expensive.

What do you think the depreciation curve will be like for the M3? How long til a base model can be found for $20k?

I know most people on this forum want their car YESTERDAY and BRAND NEW, but I don't care if someone else has farted into the seats before me if it saves me $15k

 

[Chewy3]

Lots of factors come into play. Biggest is availability and demand - since there are SO many pre-orders and people who ordered last month still have to wait maybe 18+ months depending on where they live = Less depreciation if people will pay to get one.

A variable in your favor is the tax credit, a wise buyer will calculate an automatic $7500 depreciation from any seller who got the credit.

Example: My last car was a 2010 Camaro (I also ordered day 1, its becoming a habit lol). At the time I lived in FL and it was HUGELY popular in the South and dealerships were adding a $5-10k surcharge. Even a month after purchase, which should have been the biggest depreciation cycle on a new car, the KBB value was more than I paid (I got about $750 for USAA & Navy Fed discounts). Demand played a major factor, even after 6 years it was valued and paid at 60% of original cost (via insurance after theft)

I think the model 3 will depreciate slowly at first due to demand, but once the first M3 update comes out (maybe HUD if its not on the first model, higher range or performance, any major improvement) the first models will take a big depreciation hit and THAT is when I suggest you buy used

 

[Bangor Bob]

I got into a CPO Volt ~18 months ago. While I don't like going to the gas station, I'm not in a race to get into the 3 and I'd be okay with a CPO Model 3 in a couple years. Not interested in loaning it out on the Tesla Network (and rural Maine isn't going to have that anytime soon anyway), so if the early cars aren't capable of it, I'm fine with someone else taking that depreciation hit when they finally roll out a version which can.

My wife OTOH, is driving a Prius with 260,000 miles on it, and we're just nursing that along until her reserved-on-day-two Model 3 is ready. This weekend I get to put new front struts into it, do a front brake job on it, and give it it's 51st oil change. Joyous. (Less than half the cost of having the garage doing the work though.) So I'm totally ready for it to go away, but for now a Tesla is really the only possible replacement.

So... Mixed. But yeah, I'm okay with someone else taking the initial depreciation hit.

 

[slipnslider]

I got into a CPO Volt ~18 months ago. While I don't like going to the gas station, I'm not in a race to get into the 3 and I'd be okay with a CPO Model 3 in a couple years.

What year is your volt? Do you enjoy driving it? I'm considering picking up a used one of those and waiting for used M3's to come along...

 

[Bangor Bob]

It's a 2012, and it drives quite nicely. Quiet, responsive (not compared to a Tesla, obv). The 1st gen was the best built car GM has made in decades - they actually cared about it. There are some negatives - the back seat is useless unless you're a child or a dog, for instance, and the accountants did their best to ruin the interior. But it's a fine stopgap commuter if your current car isn't going to make it until your Model 3 is ready, particularly at the prices they go for these days.

Maintenance so far in 70k miles of ownership (100k miles total on it) has been two oil changes and two air filter changes. A front wheel bearing might be starting to go out. It's hard to tell, it might just be my winter tires. And I'm going to need tires once the winters come off in a couple weeks (we nearly always get an April snowstorm), but that's a wear item....

I drive it 100 miles a day, 4 days a week, more on the weekends sometimes and lifetime mileage is in the mid 50's. If I could charge at work it would be getting a lifetime > 100mpg.

If you test-drive one, put it in Sport and Low. It's fine to drive all the time in Low. It just gives you stronger regen. And Sport just gives you a more rational throttle mapping, not actually any more power. The "Normal" mode has a lazy pedal with a huge dead spot from 50% travel up to about 90% pedal travel. Sport is much more linear.

My stats are here:
Volt Stats: Details for Volt #2012-17029 (ReVolting Blue)

 

[aronth5]

I believe there will be many people who will "jump the line" by purchasing a used Model 3 rather then waiting for their reservation number to come up.

 

[BluestarE3]

Nah, I'm not waiting until used ones become available. I'm old and I want one ASAP (reserved day 1).

 

[vforvortex]

A $7500 federal credit is ~21.4% of the $35k car value. If basing the depreciation of a Model 3 on the past prices of a Model S, you would have to wait 2+ years for the price of a USED Model 3 to equal a NEW Model 3 after incentive.(source: Tesla Model S retains its value better than gas-powered cars in its segment, losing only 28% after 50k miles )
If you are not able to take advantage of the $7500 federal tax credit, then it makes the argument to wait for a used model 3 stronger.

 

[Jason Bourne]

What's the purpose of waiting for a used model? If it's solely to be cheaper, I predict it'll be a while since the demand will significantly outpace supply for the first year or two of production.

If the purpose if waiting until production bugs are worked out and the over quality of production is higher, than I can see that. Some people think that the initial production cars (~50k) will have issues that they want to avoid. I myself don't think it'll be too severe.

 

[RedModel3]

What year is your volt? Do you enjoy driving it? I'm considering picking up a used one of those and waiting for used M3's to come along...

I got a 2012 CPO Volt in October, and I love it. Got it for under 12K, and it's head and shoulders above the ride quality of my former Lexus CT hybrid. It's definitely a car to drive to wait for my M3.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

A $7500 federal credit is ~21.4% of the $35k car value. If basing the depreciation of a Model 3 on the past prices of a Model S, you would have to wait 2+ years for the price of a USED Model 3 to equal a NEW Model 3 after incentive.(source: Tesla Model S retains its value better than gas-powered cars in its segment, losing only 28% after 50k miles )
If you are not able to take advantage of the $7500 federal tax credit, then it makes the argument to wait for a used model 3 stronger.

The tax credit will no longer be available by the time there's a significant supply of Model 3s, so the automatic discounting will no longer happen.

 

[slipnslider]

A $7500 federal credit is ~21.4% of the $35k car value. If basing the depreciation of a Model 3 on the past prices of a Model S, you would have to wait 2+ years for the price of a USED Model 3 to equal a NEW Model 3 after incentive.

Someone earlier in the thread pointed out this car won't follow the Model S depreciation curve because they will be produced in much higher numbers.

 

[slipnslider]

What's the purpose of waiting for a used model? If it's solely to be cheaper, I predict it'll be a while since the demand will significantly outpace supply for the first year or two of production.

If the purpose if waiting until production bugs are worked out and the over quality of production is higher, than I can see that. Some people think that the initial production cars (~50k) will have issues that they want to avoid. I myself don't think it'll be too severe.

It's a little of both. It's mostly to save money. I never buy new cars because of the depreciation. But year 1 production flaws are a significant consideration.

 

[Big-T]

Someone earlier in the thread pointed out this car won't follow the Model S depreciation curve because they will be produced in much higher numbers.

Sure much higher production but also much higher demand so I don't know if that'll be an accurate statement. No one can say for sure it'll depend on how much good/bad press the car gets after launch and because of that how many ICE buyers for 2019+ will line up for the car instead of buying/leasing a new ICE.

 

[dsvick]

It's a little of both. It's mostly to save money. I never buy new cars because of the depreciation. But year 1 production flaws are a significant consideration.

If that's the case then you'll probably have to wait several (I'd say 5 or 6) years to get a used model 3 for under $25K that was built in mid to late 2018 or later.

 

[djdimsum]

Im looking on getting a used Volt I have a M3 reservation, this will be a good car to hold me down while i wait a couple of years for a M3.
I've seen used 2014 Volts go for 13-15K under 30K miles, its a great deal, would getting a CPO volt be worth the extra 1-2K?

 

[Super_Popular]

You will not have to wait long, lot's of people ordered them to flip them.

 

[Post]

I'm interested to see what happens to the CPO S market. There should be a good selection of 70D and 85D leases expiring over the next 12 to 15 months.

 

[Booga]

I'm interested to see what happens to the CPO S market. There should be a good selection of 70D and 85D leases expiring over the next 12 to 15 months.

I wouldn't mind one of those as well. Right now, CPOs have held their value so well that it's been difficult to get into a used S with features like AP1. The prices come close enough where I can't justify going used. Part of this is obviously that I'm looking at CPO, but a decent portion has to be coming from demand pushing prices higher than would otherwise be normal for a car like this. There's a price at which I would make an AP1 S work even though I would have to go out of my way to charge it.

 

[slipnslider]

Im looking on getting a used Volt I have a M3 reservation, this will be a good car to hold me down while i wait a couple of years for a M3.
I've seen used 2014 Volts go for 13-15K under 30K miles, its a great deal, would getting a CPO volt be worth the extra 1-2K?

I'm considering a used 2013-15 volt as well, and it seems like they are very reliable, so you might not need it to be CPO. Plus most of them will still be under the powertrain warranty.