Anyone willing to wait for a USED Model 3?

[djdimsum]

I'm considering a used 2013-15 volt as well, and it seems like they are very reliable, so you might not need it to be CPO. Plus most of them will still be under the powertrain warranty.

Thanks, where are the best places to look online for volts? for non CPO cars.com has good prices, dont mind waiting a couple more years until the Model Y comes out around 2020.

 

[calisnow]

I think one of the greatest things about the EV market is the emergence of available used EVs, which truly makes them available to almost anyone now.

If you're willing to drive a use leaf or fiat, you can have one for a few thousand dollars.
Used i3's are dropping to $17k, only 3-4 years after they cost $50k.
Used Volts can be had for under $10k. Truly a great deal.

Is anyone planning to wait until they can pick up a used M3 for $20-25k?

I've never bought a new car since I just can't justify the depreciation hit that the first owner takes when they drive off the lot. I prefer to be the second owner - avoid initial depreciation, use it til stuff starts to break, then get rid of it before it starts getting expensive.

What do you think the depreciation curve will be like for the M3? How long til a base model can be found for $20k?

I know most people on this forum want their car YESTERDAY and BRAND NEW, but I don't care if someone else has farted into the seats before me if it saves me $15k

Your analysis made sense in the past and I used it myself many times. But you wanna be a successful investor? Then understand value. The old saw about used cars no longer applies because cars are no longer interchangeable appliances. The 3, for example, will likely have a risk of fatal crashes 50-90 percent lower than other cars. What price do you put on that insurance policy while waiting two years for a used one? Me? Far more than $15K.

There is also the hourly value of time you gain with autopilot use. Apply even a low hourly rate for autopilot use and the savings by waiting for used are quickly eaten up in time you will never get back.

Your value seeking math works in a market with substitutable goods. The 3 will have no substitutes, safety wise and convenience wise, for at least the first couple years - other than a used S.

 

[slipnslider]

Your value seeking math works in a market with substitutable goods. The 3 will have no substitutes, safety wise and convenience wise, for at least the first couple years - other than a used S.

That leads me to my other possible path - buying a new M3 with the tax credit, driving it for a year or two, then selling it for what I paid after the tax credit. There's another thread about that, but many seem to think it wouldn't work because it WOULD depreciate too quickly.

 

[abasile]

That leads me to my other possible path - buying a new M3 with the tax credit, driving it for a year or two, then selling it for what I paid after the tax credit. There's another thread about that, but many seem to think it wouldn't work because it WOULD depreciate too quickly.

Well, if you're willing to consider that, then why not just buy the new Model 3, keep it, and enjoy it?

 

[int32_t]

I wish I was willing to wait for a used model, haha ... but I don't have a car so I can't wait. Ever tried living without a car in Canada? It's haaard, eh!

 

[zer0cool]

For many premium cars, it costs just as much owning a used car vs. buying a new one due to fairly straight-line deprecation and high maintenance/repair costs. I think Model 3 will be the same case.

Only reason to buy used is because one can't afford the cash-flow buying new. Doesn't actually save any money.

 

[calisnow]

Well, if you're willing to consider that, then why not just buy the new Model 3, keep it, and enjoy it?

He will. Right now he has no Tesla - only theories.

 

[calisnow]

That leads me to my other possible path - buying a new M3 with the tax credit, driving it for a year or two, then selling it for what I paid after the tax credit. There's another thread about that, but many seem to think it wouldn't work because it WOULD depreciate too quickly.

If the hassle and time of buying and selling cars - timing them like stock speculations - is worth it to you then go ahead. My prediction is after 2 years of your Model 3 you will be spoiled to death by self driving, you'll have tens of thousands of miles on your car - but then you'll realize you have 6 more years of unlimited powertrain warranty, that EV's last a helluva long time, and that you can see yourself in this car for another 6-8 years. You'll do the math, realize you come out ahead by keeping the darn thing - and be happy.