AP 3.0: Upgrade from AP 2.0/2.5.

[puritan]

I heard on the earnings call that the the new AI chip made in-house by Tesla will rollout sometime next year.

They also seemed to indicate that all 2.0 and 2.5 AP equipped cars will be upgraded to 3.0.

First, can this be confirmed?
Second, will it be free as AP 2.0+ came with the promise of FSD.

 

[Buddy]

So what happened with AP 2.0? It finally caught up with 1.0 and now Tesla is on to 3.0?

Feeling pretty happy with my $2k AP price tag on on my AP 1.0 car

 

[buttershrimp]

Man, I am feeling pretty good about my FSD purchase, likely a free upgrade from AP 2.0 to 2000 frame per second capability FSD rolling with Tesla Silicon. Don't see how FSD happens without it! Fan freaking tastic.

 

[Buddy]

Man, I am feeling pretty good about my FSD purchase, likely a free upgrade from AP 2.0 to 2000 frame per second capability FSD rolling with Tesla Silicon. Don't see how FSD happens without it! Fan freaking tastic.

You rolled the dice. So far you are at a loss but time will tell whether or not you made the right choice.

How long until you think you made the wrong choice? Say, if Tesla rolls out FSD in 2025..? Or 2030?

I've been hearing "soon" for a few years now. Hack AP 1.0 still cant do everything they said it would (summon capabilities).

 

[d21mike]

You rolled the dice. So far you are at a loss but time will tell whether or not you made the right choice.

How long until you think you made the wrong choice? Say, if Tesla rolls out FSD in 2025..? Or 2030?

I've been hearing "soon" for a few years now. Hack AP 1.0 still cant do everything they said it would (summon capabilities).

Sounds like in about 4 weeks the payoff will start happening. And then it will keep improving month after month. I wonder which month the people (like you) that did not purchase will determine now is the time to drop $4k or $5k? I did not want to be one of those waiting month after month thinking is it good enough yet? I am one of the ones that paid the $3k with the car purchase and will simply enjoy every new update that shows up each month.

 

[Tam]

...will it be free as AP 2.0+ came with the promise of FSD.

When AP2.1 (AP2.5 by the press) came out, Tesla promised to upgrade AP2.0 for free if needed for Full-Self Driving.

Today's phone conference does not say that upgrading to AP3.0 will be free or not. It says Tesla will offer that to current owners.

Nevertheless, current owners who paid for Full-Self Driving should expect that feature to work and if it doesn't, Tesla is obligated to fix it at no further cost.

However, once AP2.0 & 2.1 Full-Self Driving will be activated, they might work as promised but not as well as AP3.0 (200 frames per second with no redundancy VS. 2,000 frames per second with redundancy.)

In that case, Tesla will not be obligated to upgrade it for free and it will offer AP3.0 upgrade for an extra charge.

 

[kgclark]

When AP2.1 (AP2.5 by the press) came out, Tesla promised to upgrade AP2.0 for free if needed for Full-Self Driving.

Today's phone conference does not say that upgrading to AP3.0 will be free or not. It says Tesla will offer that to current owners.

Nevertheless, current owners who paid for Full-Self Driving should expect that feature to work and if it doesn't, Tesla is obligated to fix it at no further cost.

However, once AP2.0 & 2.1 Full-Self Driving will be activated, they might work as promised but not as well as AP3.0 (200 frames per second with no redundancy VS. 2,000 frames per second with redundancy.)

In that case, Tesla will not be obligated to upgrade it for free and it will offer AP3.0 upgrade for an extra charge.

It's probably cheaper to upgrade everyone for free than to have to pay damages and legal fees for the inevitable class-action and/or wrongful death lawsuit....and all the negative publicity that comes with it.

 

[buttershrimp]

You rolled the dice. So far you are at a loss but time will tell whether or not you made the right choice.

How long until you think you made the wrong choice? Say, if Tesla rolls out FSD in 2025..? Or 2030?

I've been hearing "soon" for a few years now. Hack AP 1.0 still cant do everything they said it would (summon capabilities).

I sincerely don't regret the FSD purchase for a second .... If they can nail some meaningful FSD items in the next 2 years, I'd be satisfied.

I never considered using my car to shuttle people to the airport.... BUT I do expect that 30 years from now I will summon my vintage S to meet me at the airport with a bag full of fresh Depends Adult Diapers and a bottle of Viagra as I enter my Golden years. Best thing is that my ex machina/erotic robot will be able to change my diapers and carry my luggage through security without slowing me down....

 

[malcolm]

Best thing is that my ex machina/erotic robot will be able to change my diapers and carry my luggage through security without slowing me down....

Well, that's a new one for the list: 27 Fun Things to Do at The Airport

 

[HankLloydRight]

<opinion>

No matter what's released in the next few weeks, months, or even years... it's all still going to be "driver assistance" and not FSD/autonomous driving. Or what I like to call "Fool Self Driving". The legislation and liability issues are years (or decades) away from being sorted out. You're still going to have to have your hands on the wheel and the nags aren't going away anytime soon.

</opinion>

Tesla promised to upgrade AP2.0 for free if needed for Full-Self Driving.

Tesla didn't promise anything. Elon tweeted something, which is a lot different. Like I've said before, Elon has tweeted lots of *sugar* that's never happened.

Nevertheless, current owners who paid for Full-Self Driving should expect that feature to work and if it doesn't, Tesla is obligated to fix it at no further cost.

Or refund the $3k with a little love note/apology.

What new bugs^H^H^H^Hfeatures do you think are going to be released with V9.0? Automatic lane changing? Getting off an exit ramp? Recognizing and handling stop signs and traffic lights? I'm curious what people think will encompass these first "FSD" features.

 

[d21mike]

<opinion>

No matter what's released in the next few weeks, months, or even years... it's all still going to be "driver assistance" and not FSD/autonomous driving. Or what I like to call "Fool Self Driving". The legislation and liability issues are years (or decades) away from being sorted out. You're still going to have to have your hands on the wheel and the nags aren't going away anytime soon.

</opinion>



Tesla didn't promise anything. Elon tweeted something, which is a lot different. Like I've said before, Elon has tweeted lots of *sugar* that's never happened.



Or refund the $3k with a little love note/apology.

What new bugs^H^H^H^Hfeatures do you think are going to be released with V9.0? Automatic lane changing? Getting off an exit ramp? Recognizing and handling stop signs and traffic lights? I'm curious what people think will encompass these first "FSD" features.

I was not just a tweet. He actually said the WORDS out of his MOUTH (multiple times). "I expect we can provide FSD with existing hardware, but if not then we will upgrade the hardware". Granted he did not say exactly what hardware (everyone seems to agree it is the AP CPU Hardware and not the cameras or add LIDAR) and he did not put it in writing. But you are misrepresenting his comments by saying "Elon tweeted something". Is that your intent?

 

[d21mike]

<opinion>What new bugs^H^H^H^Hfeatures do you think are going to be released with V9.0? Automatic lane changing? Getting off an exit ramp? Recognizing and handling stop signs and traffic lights? I'm curious what people think will encompass these first "FSD" features.

1. Automatic Lane Changing for freeways is an EAP Feature.
2. Getting off an exit ramp is an EAP Feature.

I expect the first "FSD" features to be stop signs. Maybe traffic lights. Regarding stop signs. I expect the car to STOP but I expect the driver will need to initiate moving forward if not behind another car. I do not expect major changes in the first FSD feature release.

 

[HankLloydRight]

But you are misrepresenting his comments by saying "Elon tweeted something". Is that your intent?

No. But tweeting it, or even saying that, it's still not in any contract or agreement. Elon has "said" lots of *sugar* that hasn't happened. Chrome browser? Nope. Apps with an SDK? Nope. Mobile phone mirroring? He's even backed off of that now too. And those things are actually doable.

"I expect we can provide FSD with existing hardware, but if not then we will upgrade the hardware".

There's a lot of wiggle room in there. "I expect". When he says "upgrade the hardware" did he say "for free"? But I honestly don't think the hardware is the problem. It's the software and regulatory environment.

1. Automatic Lane Changing for freeways is an EAP Feature.
2. Getting off an exit ramp is an EAP Feature.

Fair enough.. but AP2.x still doesn't do those things.

I expect the first "FSD" features to be stop signs. Maybe traffic lights. Regarding stop signs. I expect the car to STOP but I expect the driver will need to initiate moving forward if not behind another car. I do not expect major changes in the first FSD feature release.

Ok, I'd sure like to see that happen in the next 12 months. But even stopping for stop signs or stop lights really isn't "Full Self Driving" if the driver has to watch and re-engage AP after each stop sign/stop light. And stop signs I think they can nail down pretty well. Stop lights I think are going to be a much harder problem to solve (in situations where there are no cars in front of you also stopping).

 

[DiamondHands]

I expect the first "FSD" features to be stop signs. Maybe traffic lights. Regarding stop signs. I expect the car to STOP but I expect the driver will need to initiate moving forward if not behind another car. I do not expect major changes in the first FSD feature release.

A friend of mine just bought a Honda Accord, which unbeknownst to me, is equipped with Traffic Sign Recognition System, which can read speed limit signs. First, kudos to the engineers who successfully implemented this. Second, I'm of the opinion that this capability should be standard on all Teslas yesterday.

With regards to other "actionable" traffic signs such as stop signs and yield signs, there's room for discourse as to whether the level of automated car responses are best regarded as EAP or FSD features.

 

[Tam]

...Tesla didn't promise anything...

Electrek got the statement from Tesla spokeperson:

“However, we still expect to achieve full self-driving capability with safety more than twice as good as the average human driver without making any hardware changes to HW 2.0. If this does not turn out to be the case, which we think is highly unlikely, we will upgrade customers to the 2.5 computer at no cost.”


The highlights here:

1) free upgrade to 2.5 as needed but beyond that (as in 3.0) is not mentioned.
2) Tesla is promising "full self-driving capability" as "with safety more than twice as good as the average human driver."

AP3.0's safety may perform better "than twice as good as the average human driver" but as long as AP2.0 and sub-AP3.0 can perform #2 above, Tesla is not obligated to upgrade to AP3.0 for free.

But most likely, since Tesla has increased price on post delivery activation, there's additional funds to compensate an AP3.0 upgrade for free if Tesla wants to.

 

[HankLloydRight]

“However, we still expect to achieve full self-driving capability with safety more than twice as good as the average human driver without making any hardware changes to HW 2.0. If this does not turn out to be the case, which we think is highly unlikely, we will upgrade customers to the 2.5 computer at no cost.”

I think it was Elon who tweeted that it's more like AP2.1 and not "2.5". From what I understand, it's a plug-and-play computer swap, which would minimize the cost to upgrade people to 2.1/5. But like I said, 2.0 hardware is likely capable, but it's the software that will hold back advanced EAP and FSD features.

But you're right about anything beyond that is uncharted territory.

 

[DanCar]

When he says "upgrade the hardware" did he say "for free"?

Yes, in earnings call Tesla said all 2.x autopilot will be upgraded to 3.0, for free. Although I'm wondering if "all" means everyone who paid for FSD.

But I honestly don't think the hardware is the problem. It's the software and regulatory environment.

Not a problem in Arizona. No laws prohibiting driverless there.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Not a problem in Arizona. No laws prohibiting driverless there.

Not yet.

 

[d21mike]

No. But tweeting it, or even saying that, it's still not in any contract or agreement. Elon has "said" lots of *sugar* that hasn't happened. Chrome browser? Nope. Apps with an SDK? Nope. Mobile phone mirroring? He's even backed off of that now too. And those things are actually doable.



There's a lot of wiggle room in there. "I expect". When he says "upgrade the hardware" did he say "for free"? But I honestly don't think the hardware is the problem. It's the software and regulatory environment.



Fair enough.. but AP2.x still doesn't do those things.



Ok, I'd sure like to see that happen in the next 12 months. But even stopping for stop signs or stop lights really isn't "Full Self Driving" if the driver has to watch and re-engage AP after each stop sign/stop light. And stop signs I think they can nail down pretty well. Stop lights I think are going to be a much harder problem to solve (in situations where there are no cars in front of you also stopping).

You were specifically asking which "First FSD Features" would be part of the first v9 release. And you listed some EAP and FSD Features. I was just clarifying that the original comment (months ago) from Elon was regarding "FSD Features". However, I do think in the conference call he talk about EAP Features that will be part of v9 but did not use the name EAP.

And of course "First FSD Features" by definition is not complete and therefor not "Full Self Driving". I think it is clear to everyone that is not trying to put down Tesla that Elon means FSD will be rolled out over time and this v9 first release is simply the start.

 

[Tam]

Yes, in earnings call Tesla said all 2.x autopilot will be upgraded to 3.0, for free.

I listened to the call again and I don't recall of any mention that the AP3 upgrade will be free.

The most similar to "free" is:

"And it costs the same as our current hardware and we anticipate that this would have to be replaced.

This replacement, which is why I made it easy to switch out the computer, and that's all that needs to be done.

If we take out one computer, plug in the next. That's it!

All the connectors are compatible and you get an order of magnitude, more processing and you can run all the cameras at a primary full resolution with the complex neural net..."

In principle, just because something is better, that doesn't mean the upgrade is free:

When 3G was placed in early Model S, Tesla also knew that "this would have to be replaced" because faster LTE was available in cell phones. Some owners upgraded from slow 3G to faster LTE and it cost them about $500 for the retrofit Tesla upgrade.

Don't get me wrong. I am all for free but it is inconclusive until there's a hint from Tesla that it will be free.