Apple Co Founder: "FSD is a frightening, horrible experience".

[dgatwood]

1) You couldn't buy "EAP and AP" you could only buy EAP OR AP-- you never had both stacking at the same time.

I'm 99% sure I had to check three checkboxes on the ordering page — one for Autopilot, one for Enhanced Autopilot, and one for FSD. That was late 2017, before they made AP part of the base price of the car.

3) You actually got something for the EAP money- a bunch of excellent, usable features. You paid 5k for that, back when FSD was another 3k. So, yes, you paid 3k to add FSD (which at the time did literally nothing to your very-useful 5k EAP purchase.

You can get value from something and still not get as much value as what you paid.

For many people, FSD's potential was a major selling point, and many of those people were first-time luxury car buyers, and probably would not have bought a luxury car if they had not bought a Tesla. For them, the main reason they spent more money for a Tesla was because of what they expected that 3k feature to eventually provide, and the same goes for why they were willing to spend so much money for AP and EAP.

This is, of course, far less true for people who bought a Model 3 or Model Y than for people who bought a Model S or Model X, and more true for those who bought an S or X before the 3 or Y became available, because the price of the 3 and Y is not nearly as high compared with other cars on the market as the price for the S and X is.

My Model 3 was actually cheaper than a comparable new vehicle from Lexus, BMW 3, Mercedes C, etc.

Again, you're making the assumption that all Tesla buyers are people who were already in the market for a luxury car. My experience has been the opposite; most of the people I know who drive a Tesla upgraded from a fairly normal car, not a BMW or Mercedes.

If you meant "It cost more than the cheapest Kia" that's... not very comparable.... so I'm unclear what point you're making here.

It actually is way more comparable than you think. That Kia has 110V AC in the back seat for powering people's laptops while they ride, and lots of other useful features that Tesla is missing. In many ways, Tesla fails at being a luxury car. It somewhat makes up for those flaws by having a beast of a powertrain and the promise of FSD. Without the promise of FSD, I definitely would not have bought mine. I wouldn't even have taken a glance at a car costing more than $40k when I bought my Model X for $110k.

Also wrong. They aren't remotely comparable.

Have you driven one built recently? I have. They've come a long way.

The take rate of FSD is 19% for purchased vehicles.

Tesla confirms 285,000 people bought Full Self-Driving

Tesla has confirmed that over 285,000 people bought its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package in North America.

electrek.co

Doesn’t look like that FSD is the main driver for these purchases to me.

So for 81% of purchased Tesla cars, FSD isn't a main driver, but at the same time, exactly none of those people are complaining about FSD not being anywhere close to self-driving, making all of those purchases entirely moot.

The only people who matter for the purposes of this discussion are the 19% who actually bought FSD. What percentage of them chose a Tesla over a cheaper non-luxury car because of FSD-related promises. I'd bet it is a decent number. The only way to know is with a survey of FSD owners, of course.

 

[dgatwood]

Show me a new car with comparable options including ADAS to a Model 3 Standard range for $11,000. I’ll wait.

To be clear, I was thinking more of the Model X than the Model 3.

 

[ElectricIAC]

To be clear, I was thinking more of the Model X than the Model 3.

Okay, $27,500, similarly sized and equipped with ADAS.

Go.

 

[flar]

And starting in 2016 it was $3000.... and 2017, and 2018, and some of 2019.

Then it was 6-7k the rest of 2019... and 8-10k for all 2020 and 2021.

It only became $15,000 like 5 months ago.


So either mentioning 2016 makes no sense here-- or claiming tens of thousands makes no sense here-- or he has purchased FSD for a more-than-average number of Teslas over many years.

Which, if it kept not being what he thought it was, begs the question of why did he keep buying it?


That's apart from the hilarious idea a dude worth like $100,000,000+ according to most estimates would consider like 30k SO MUCH MONEY.

You are making apple and oranges comparisons.

[Second update: OK, others have pointed this out and discussed it over a number of posts, so the following is mostly redundant but while I think the $3k for historic FSD has been addressed, there is also the issue that the current price is $6k + $9k, not $15k. If you defend $3k for the earlier price, then you should push for $9k being the current FSD price. And since "AP" has changed in definition over the years, it gets even more complicated than that...]

Recently it has been $6k for AP plus an additional $9k for FSD, but you quote that as $15k.

On those older cars it was $7k $5k for AP plus $3k for FSD, but you quote that as $3k instead of $10k $8k.

So, it either went $3K -> $6k -> $8k -> $9k, or it went $10k $8k -> $6k -> $8k -> $15k

One of those numbers has to change for your analysis to be consistent across all time frames.

[Update: Oops, it was only $5k for AP back in the day, so I edited and adjusted all the numbers...]

 

[Knightshade]

You are making apple and oranges comparisons.

Recently it has been $6k for AP plus an additional $9k for FSD, but you quote that as $15k.

This is not accurate.

AP is free (and has been since early 2019)

FSD is 15k by itself if all you have is free AP

Tesla does offer EAP again (they didn't for a couple of years) but it's not required for FSD like it used to be

You used to HAVE to get EAP, and then FSD was an add on- that has not been true since early 2019.

On those older cars it was $7k for AP plus $3k for FSD

Again this is wrong.

When ordering the vehicle prior to the March 2019 change EAP was $5000, and to add FSD was $3000 more. 8k for both.

And EAP delivered a bunch of actual features that existed and worked. FSD added literally nothing at the time. The first actual deliverable for those FSD buyers was stop light and stop sign recognition, and was not delivered until mid-2020.

I'm 99% sure I had to check three checkboxes on the ordering page — one for Autopilot, one for Enhanced Autopilot, and one for FSD. That was late 2017, before they made AP part of the base price of the car.

That is not correct. People seem to have REALLY bad memories here.


Basic AP was not a thing back then.

You could get nothing (you got dumb cruise control in that case) for free.

You could get EAP for $5000.

You can then (and only then) add FSD for $3000.

Tesla announces all production cars now have fully self-driving hardware

Once again our readers guessed it right (well 40% of you). You said that today’s announcement would be about Autopilot...

electrek.co

That's from 2016 pointing out the old "autopilot" package from AP1 was being replaced with the EAP packages on AP2 cars.

For many people, FSD's potential was a major selling point, and many of those people were first-time luxury car buyers, and probably would not have bought a luxury car if they had not bought a Tesla. For them, the main reason they spent more money for a Tesla was because of what they expected that 3k feature to eventually provide, and the same goes for why they were willing to spend so much money for AP and EAP.

The FSD take rate, as has been pointed out, appears to again contradict your claim this was a prime motivator for many buyers to get the car at all.

But surely for those who DID as early as 2016, the fact they had been delivered exactly zero features of any kind almost 4 years later would suggest they'd be unlikely to have then repeatedly bought FSD AGAIN for "tens of thousands of dollars worth of it" as Woz suggests he did.

It actually is way more comparable than you think.

It's really not.

That Kia has 110V AC in the back seat for powering people's laptops while they ride

... how is that relevant to anything being discussed here?

. Without the promise of FSD, I definitely would not have bought mine.

As explained to you several times now, that puts you in a deep minority of buyers. Most of whom didn't buy FSD at all let alone ONLY buy the car for that reason.

Have you driven one built recently? I have. They've come a long way.

I didn't say they were not well built vehicles. I said they were not comparable ones to my Tesla.

So for 81% of purchased Tesla cars, FSD isn't a main driver, but at the same time, exactly none of those people are complaining about FSD not being anywhere close to self-driving, making all of those purchases entirely moot.

You just had your SO MANY PEOPLE BOUGHT FOR FSD narrative debunked, and then just handwaved the facts away as moot.

LOL as the kids say.

The only people who matter for the purposes of this discussion are the 19% who actually bought FSD. What percentage of them chose a Tesla over a cheaper non-luxury car because of FSD-related promises. I'd bet it is a decent number.

All your bets so far have been losers. Not sure why you believe this one is any better.

I certainly would've still bought mine without it... because it was an objectively better sport sedan, for a lower price, than all of the comparable ICE vehicles.

The BMW 3 series- being one of the most traded in vehicles for the Model 3 at the time suggests I'm not alone in that either.

The only way to know is with a survey of FSD owners, of course.

Ok, let us know when you have some results!

 

[enemji]

The BMW 3 series- being one of the most traded in vehicles for the Model 3 at the time suggests I'm not alone in that either.

LOL. That is about as right as it can be. Check this out. Right in BMWs backyard!!!

 

[flar]

This is not accurate.

AP is free (and has been since early 2019)

FSD is 15k by itself if all you have is free AP

Tesla does offer EAP again (they didn't for a couple of years) but it's not required for FSD like it used to be

You used to HAVE to get EAP, and then FSD was an add on- that has not been true since early 2019.

While it is true that the base car has a feature that the older cars did not, the difference between EAP and FSD is $3k vs $9k, not $15k.

What do you mean by "EAP is not required for FSD"? You can't get FSD without EAP, that's a fact. If you get FSD then you have EAP automatically, that's a fact. What does "required" mean here? That sounds like "required" to me. If it wasn't required then show me a car that has FSD that doesn't have EAP...?

It's semantics, but the reality is that the pricing of FSD over EAP is either $3k vs $9k or the pricing of FSD over a base car is $8k vs $15k and that is slightly apples to oranges because the older base car didn't include a lane-keeping feature.

You can't compare $3k to $15k ever under any semantics. That is completely apples to oranges.

[Update]
To be clear, the automated capabilities of the older car + $5k is the same as the automated capabilities of the newer car + $6k. That is the only "automation" apples to apples comparison between the two. From there you can either focus on the additional $3k to make the older car FSD compared to the $9k additional to make the newer car FSD, or you can drop back to the base prices on both and include an asterisk that at least the newer car has limited lane-keeping.
[/Update]

 

[flar]

Again this is wrong.

When ordering the vehicle prior to the March 2019 change EAP was $5000, and to add FSD was $3000 more. 8k for both.

I edited my post to correct the price of EAP before you posted this.

 

[Knightshade]

While it is true that the base car has a feature that the older cars did not, the difference between EAP and FSD is $3k vs $9k, not $15k.

That would make it even harder to "waste ten of thousands" on FSD though

What do you mean by "EAP is not required for FSD"? You can't get FSD without EAP, that's a fact.

That is absolutely NOT a fact.

It WAS a fact prior to March 2019. You could not JUST pay the FSD price. You had to buy EAP, and then also buy FSD. And they were listed as seperate things on your invoice and car purchase too.

Now, there's a price to buy FSD if you don't already have EAP at all. $15,000 presently. As a single item. That was not a thing prior to 2019.

In fact EAP wasn't available by itself at all for a big chunk of time after March 2019-- they only brought it back as a cheaper-to-fsd-but-does-less alternative in mid-2022, over 3 years after it wasn't sold at all in the US.... so for the vast majority of the time between ~March 2019 and ~July 2022, "FSD" was the only ADAS package you could buy.

You can't compare $3k to $15k ever under any semantics. That is completely apples to oranges.

I'm really unsure WTF point you're thinking you're trying to make here.

Especially given I was the one who said this like fifty posts ago back on page 1

olks also need to remember back when it was 3k, that was on top of the 5k that EAP cost. And EAP was WELL worth the money (and still is). So really your net was still 8k...meaning it's only just now in 2022 that the total cost for FSD is a lot higher than it was from 2016-2021.

 

[flar]

I'm really unsure WTF point you're thinking you're trying to make here.

Especially given I was the one who said this like fifty posts ago back on page 1

The posts crossed in the asynchronous reading order as I came across the thread late. Apologies for posting before finishing the thread. In other sources I had been looking at recently, those mismatched comparisons had been left unchallenged and I wanted to get on top of it.

(I'm still not sure why you took exception to my clarification that you had already mentioned yourself. It felt like you were continuing to try to justify the $3k vs $15k comparison even though we had both observed that it was not accurate...?)

 

[Knightshade]

The posts crossed in the asynchronous reading order as I came across the thread late. Apologies for posting before finishing the thread. In other sources I had been looking at recently, those mismatched comparisons had been left unchallenged and I wanted to get on top of it.

(I'm still not sure why you took exception to my clarification that you had already mentioned yourself. It felt like you were continuing to try to justify the $3k vs $15k comparison even though we had both observed that it was not accurate...?)

First- I appreciate the apology... entirely too little of folks realizing a misread and owning it, so thank you for that.

Second- just the opposite I was making the point to illustrate two things-- first that the "total" price to get FSD only got significantly larger in basically the last 1 year...and second that the "price to get FSD over EAP" was never big enough to add up to "tens of thousands since 2016" unless you bought a much higher than average # of new Teslas in that period and KEPT buying the thing you're now mad never worked despite it continuing to not work each time.