Are deliveries much lower than they should be?

[Breezy]

From EV Sales Blog, estimated January deliveries were 2116 for Model S and 370 for Model X, total 2486.

I believe guidance is 16,000 for Q1, and 80,000 to 85,000 for 2016. They need to average 6700 deliveries per month to hit 80,000.

Recognizing that EV Sales Blog's numbers are estimates for many countries, they usually aren't very far off. It doesn't appear that many Teslas have been going out the door in 2016.

 

[jbcarioca]

No question about it, January and February have been slower than expected. However, if they've licked the Model X production problems they still could easily meet the lower end of guidance. The question certainly is not demand, but production. I wish we had better insight but we probably will not until mid-second quarter; if there is not rapid delivery volume ramp-up by then, I suspect the chance to make guidance will have evaporated .

 

[Breezy]

They really seem to have dug a hole for themselves. Hopefully they can dig themselves out, without quality sacrifices.

 

[cgiGuy]

How do they know? I didn't think Tesla released monthly sales numbers.

 

[flankspeed8]

How do they know? I didn't think Tesla released monthly sales numbers.

Estimates based on whatever empirical data is available. They are usually pretty accurate within +/- 10%.

Tesla needs to figure out how to get all the X fence sitters to confirm...

 

[TNRoadstr&ModelS]

I am not concerned Tesla will make their guidance for 2016. The same concerns were voiced every year for the last 3 years. They never spread their production evenly among the 4 Quarters. They have a clear pattern of lowest production in the 1st quarter and highest production in the 4th Quarter.

2015: 50,658
Q1: 10,045
Q2: 11,532
Q3: 11,603
Q4: 17,478




2014: 31,655
Q1: 6,457
Q2: 7,579
Q3: 7,785
Q4: 9,834

2013: 22,477
Q1: 4,900
Q2: 5,150
Q3: 5,500
Q4: 6,892

 

[Breezy]

Guidance was 35,000 for 2014 and 55,000 for 2015. They didn't meet either of those targets.

"In 2015, we expect to deliver about 55,000 Model S and X vehicles..."
- February 11, 2015

"We expect to deliver over 35,000 Model S vehicles in 2014..."
- February 19, 2014

 

[Chickenlittle]

Guidance was 35,000 for 2014 and 55,000 for 2015. They didn't meet either of those targets.

"In 2015, we expect to deliver about 55,000 Model S and X vehicles..."
- February 11, 2015

"We expect to deliver over 35,000 Model S vehicles in 2014..."
- February 19, 2014

Is the greased rope your holding on to feeling slippery? Is it time to remind everyone that Fremont is near a fault line?

 

[Breezy]

Is the greased rope your holding on to feeling slippery? Is it time to remind everyone that Fremont is near a fault line?

Not following.

 

[chickensevil]

Guidance was 35,000 for 2014 and 55,000 for 2015. They didn't meet either of those targets.

"In 2015, we expect to deliver about 55,000 Model S and X vehicles..."
- February 11, 2015

"We expect to deliver over 35,000 Model S vehicles in 2014..."
- February 19, 2014

Yes and the main failure on 2014 numbers was the port strikes which was totally outside their control and for 2015 those numbers clearly intended for much more Model X delivered than a little over 200. You push your Model X production back another 6 months from your plan and this is what happens.

Neither one of those issues presented themselves until the second half of the year and had nothing to do with low Q1 numbers throwing off their estimates.

In the same breath that they say 80k+ they said 16k for this quarter obviously they are going to be back loading deliveries and increased production in the second half of the year again.

Also, we only have Jan and Feb data, they are obviously going to be dumping most of their deliveries in Mar what has been evidenced by multiple things not the lease of which is following the trends on the wait times thread.

 

[Breezy]

In the same breath that they say 80k+ they said 16k for this quarter obviously they are going to be back loading deliveries and increased production in the second half of the year again.

I realize that, as I mentioned 16,000 for the first quarter in my original post. I think it's as simple as growth with each successive quarter plus some seasonal effect of US sales superimposed.

I don't think it's obvious that they're going to be dumping most of their deliveries in March; that's one possibility.

 

[Dutchie]

I was surprised to see quite a large inventory of new cars for sale in Vancouver. Has demand slipped?

Pre-Owned Model S | Tesla Motors Canada

 

[chickensevil]

I was surprised to see quite a large inventory of new cars for sale in Vancouver. Has demand slipped?

Pre-Owned Model S | Tesla Motors Canada

I only count 40 new on there, that's not too. Bad, and why would that be a demand issue? If anything they are clearing out old inventory for new. They might even be finally removing inventory to fill spaces with the Model X. They cycle all their inventory after around 2-3 months.

 

[zambono]

It's a $90k+ 4 year old vehicle, sales are definitely going to slow down if they don't do a noticeable refresh. I am considering purchasing but the truth is that at this price level there are many options. Many will argue that there aren't other electric vehicle options, but I will have to counter that most buyers don't care. Those who must have the latest tech probably already have one, but those who like me see the benefit of the electric vehicle but then compare to a well equipped 5 series don't see the merit. Specially if the design is 4 years old without an update. Then you come into this forum and you realize there are many UI, nav, and media issues that haven't been addressed from day one, and the desire to purchase one wanes.

 

[ggr]

It's a $90k+ 4 year old vehicle, sales are definitely going to slow down if they don't do a noticeable refresh. I am considering purchasing but the truth is that at this price level there are many options. Many will argue that there aren't other electric vehicle options, but I will have to counter that most buyers don't care. Those who must have the latest tech probably already have one, but those who like me see the benefit of the electric vehicle but then compare to a well equipped 5 series don't see the merit. Specially if the design is 4 years old without an update. Then you come into this forum and you realize there are many UI, nav, and media issues that haven't been addressed from day one, and the desire to purchase one wanes.

You are still thinking traditionally I'm afraid. The vehicle has been refreshed already! It seems like a lot of people who have early Model Ss have upgraded to newer ones. Who cares about the gross body style? It's stuff like D, Ludicrous, Autopilot that people care about. I confess that it's becoming harder and harder for me to hold on to the historic Big Gay Car.

 

[chickensevil]

It's a $90k+ 4 year old vehicle, sales are definitely going to slow down if they don't do a noticeable refresh. I am considering purchasing but the truth is that at this price level there are many options. Many will argue that there aren't other electric vehicle options, but I will have to counter that most buyers don't care. Those who must have the latest tech probably already have one, but those who like me see the benefit of the electric vehicle but then compare to a well equipped 5 series don't see the merit. Specially if the design is 4 years old without an update. Then you come into this forum and you realize there are many UI, nav, and media issues that haven't been addressed from day one, and the desire to purchase one wanes.

I'm confused, you do realize the average release cycle (note average, there are plenty the go on both sides of this) is 8 years... Right? At most, they make some small changes to the front and rear with what amounts to a body kit and call it a refresh. Other than updating the nose to look like the X, I wouldn't expect much else by way of changes for another four years or so... That isn't too say they aren't doing stuff inside... Oh man are they doing stuff on the inside... I'm one of those who upgraded because of all the changes made internally!

 

[zambono]

I'm confused, you do realize the average release cycle (note average, there are plenty the go on both sides of this) is 8 years... Right? At most, they make some small changes to the front and rear with what amounts to a body kit and call it a refresh. Other than updating the nose to look like the X, I wouldn't expect much else by way of changes for another four years or so... That isn't too say they aren't doing stuff inside... Oh man are they doing stuff on the inside... I'm one of those who upgraded because of all the changes made internally!

Not for a refresh to the exterior, those tend to be around the 2 year mark and new vehicles are now being released around 4 to 5 years. Look at the stats, it used to be longer but that is not the case anymore, too much competition. I currently have a range rover evoque, it was refreshed at both the 2 year and 4 year mark. Now I understand that the S gets software updates fairly regularly, and that it did get some added features almost 2 years ago with the AP hardware, but the vehicle itself hasn't changed in 4. Changing lights, possibly door mechanisms, interior, front and rear thats a refresh.

- - - Updated - - -

I happen to be a possible buyer, I test drove and liked what I see. I have purchased more expensive vehicles in the past but they barely lost value due to their rarity, that would not be the case with a new sedan, specially one where technology is advancing quickly. So it would make my decision easier if I saw that after 4 years there was a refresh which would at least mean there won't be many visible changes for a couple years as opposed to those who ordered their vehicle 2 years ago and missed the AP hardware by a couple weeks.

 

[CTemp222]

Estimates based on whatever empirical data is available. They are usually pretty accurate within +/- 10%.

Tesla needs to figure out how to get all the X fence sitters to confirm...

I don't think getting people to confirm their orders is the problem, here's a poll on the X thread.
What Percentage of X Reservation Holders have Ordered?

 

[chickensevil]

Not for a refresh to the exterior, those tend to be around the 2 year mark and new vehicles are now being released around 4 to 5 years. Look at the stats, it used to be longer but that is not the case anymore, too much competition. I currently have a range rover evoque, it was refreshed at both the 2 year and 4 year mark. Now I understand that the S gets software updates fairly regularly, and that it did get some added features almost 2 years ago with the AP hardware, but the vehicle itself hasn't changed in 4. Changing lights, possibly door mechanisms, interior, front and rear thats a refresh.

- - - Updated - - -

I happen to be a possible buyer, I test drove and liked what I see. I have purchased more expensive vehicles in the past but they barely lost value due to their rarity, that would not be the case with a new sedan, specially one where technology is advancing quickly. So it would make my decision easier if I saw that after 4 years there was a refresh which would at least mean there won't be many visible changes for a couple years as opposed to those who ordered their vehicle 2 years ago and missed the AP hardware by a couple weeks.

When I ran stats it was based across a wide range of models from 30k - 80k starting prices and many manufacturers. I then averaged them together to come up with the average refresh time. Range Rover (Land Rover) is always hurting for sales and as a sub company are likely trying to justify their continued existence in a market that already has tons of SUVs and they can't barely get any market share. So of course they refresh more frequently out of necessity. Doesn't help that they are know for their lack of reliability (whether true or not, it's the big negative toward them).

So as I said above, of course you can find refreshes that are faster. That doesn't change that the average is around 8. And this was based on when companies moved to whatever their current gen is on a model.

If you are worried about resale, what causes depreciation currently is all the changes they have made internally to the car. This is a car that has upgraded bother ends of the battery, upped the performance profile of the car both on the low and high end, upped the technology quite dramatically. Anyone buying used that remotely knows what they are doing at all is going to ask battery size and features. If they hold out on an external change for another 4 years then the design is solid across the next three, so what is the issue? People being able to see visibly that you have a 2016 instead of 2012? Then call it for what it is, you want to stand out as having the latest and greatest and want to wait until others know about this choice as well. There is nothing wrong with wanting to make this a buying choice, but own it... Don't call out resale value when that isn't the problem as I can show you how the resale value is coming out around the various internal changes (autopilot being the single biggest hit to resale value.)

Now if you really are concerned about resale value, I would hold out for the next new thing, whatever that is... P100D? And then you are likely to be as good as can be expected for resale value on a Tesla.

 

[zambono]

The lack of reliability with Range Rover still holds true, unfortunate since its such a great vehicle when nothing is wrong. Having the latest and greatest is not the priority but I would expect some of the kinks fixed and some of the newer tech in the X to make it into the S as a refresh. For example the door handles, seats, etc. If they upgrade the audio systems even better because the premium didn't sound like it warranted $2500. Lets say a refresh comes and I don't like what I see I might even get a current inventory MS for less.