Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Are you also investing in Tesla?

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Even with today's China numbers spooking the market TSLA is holding at $33. Not bad for a low volume day, so far. If we're not seeing the high 20's on a day like today I don't think we will see it unless someone hits a panic button like back on Jan. 13th.
We've dropped from 40 for basically no reason so it's hard for me to believe the stock won't rise or fall further for basically no reason.
 
Spending and Losing are two different words with completely different meanings. If I am Spending money to make money I am not Losing anything. ( Famous last words before shirt gets removed from back. )
Of course, but the stock price is all hope based at this point. Tesla's spending in hopes of making big returns.

Why was 40 too hopeful and 33 just hopeful enough? I don't see why it won't drift back to it's previous plateau in the mid to high 20s. Nothing has really changed much since then from a hope perspective. Conversely, I don't see any reason it wouldn't go back to 40 either. There's just nothing to base any stock movement on lately.
 
Remember, this is going to be the quarter with huge expenses and no sales. I wonder whether the market will overreact to those utterly predictable results.
I hope so. Maybe my $26 limit order will execute.

Of course, but the stock price is all hope based at this point. Tesla's spending in hopes of making big returns.

Why was 40 too hopeful and 33 just hopeful enough? I don't see why it won't drift back to it's previous plateau in the mid to high 20s. Nothing has really changed much since then from a hope perspective. Conversely, I don't see any reason it wouldn't go back to 40 either. There's just nothing to base any stock movement on lately.
I think the closer we get to the Model S roll-out without snafus, the higher the hope will rise. The earnings on selling 20,000 per year, at present capitalization, would suggest a base level price for the stock, with the market going above or below that depending on opinions as to whether or not the company can keep going and expand to the Model X and beyond.
 
Seems like the above/below at 20k per year that we're way below. The Wunderlich guy said in a couple weeks ago:

Still, O’Neill writes Tesla need only make $1 in profit per share by 2014 to justify his $49 price target.

That is less than half the $2.40 per share the Street is currently estimating.
From that, it sounds like a $49 valuation is already hedging the value due to uncertainty since it's based on $1 rather than $2.40. No idea how the $2.40 is derived though.
 
Uncertainty never disappears. Questions will remain about whether they can keep up production, whether the profit margin is high enough to maintain operation, and whether the car will continue to sell once the true-believers have all bought one.

But the uncertainty will certainly drop significantly once the Model S starts to reach owners and starts to build a reliability history. I think that happened when the Roadster finally hit the streets. The S will do the same and when the X goes into production that will take uncertainty to another low. At each step there is less and less uncertainty about Tesla's ability to deliver and grow. By the time Bluestar reaches full production and is selling at planned rates (assuming this is the case) most people will take Tesla seriously as a company.
 
The real key to this is that the Model S has to go out and stick. No recalls, no fires, no failures, no noise. Just a solid, reliable, better-than-expected luxury sedan with extraordinary safety ratings. Oh, and btw, it's all-electric.

+1. The first year's production really has to be perfect with good owner satisfaction.