I'd cry "Uncle" but we have one in this thread.
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Are you also investing in Tesla?
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I'd cry "Uncle" but we have one in this thread.
I bought @ 30, bought more 10minutes before the close today, and will sell at 300
This is going to be a bumpy ride, but I've come to terms with the volatility of this stock.... I'm not a religious man, nor am I a conspiracy nut, however, I am praying that God, some Omnipotent being, or some secret society is watching over Elon and Tesla Motors
Tesla succeeding would be a tremendous benefit to this country and to the world, and anyone with a brain knows this. This is an election year, and Obama, "errrr" wouldn't allow a company as relevant as Tesla fail, if they somehow ran into trouble. Right?
This is going to be a bumpy ride, but I've come to terms with the volatility of this stock.... I'm not a religious man, nor am I a conspiracy nut, however, I am praying that God, some Omnipotent being, or some secret society is watching over Elon and Tesla Motors
Tesla succeeding would be a tremendous benefit to this country and to the world, and anyone with a brain knows this. This is an election year, and Obama, "errrr" wouldn't allow a company as relevant as Tesla fail, if they somehow ran into trouble. Right?
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Don't count on some supreme being, even Obama, coming to Tesla's aid, not that there is any reason it would be needed. The tech works, the business model is sound, and the demand is there. The rest is just time.
NigelM
Recovering Member
1. Plenty of good news reports (mostly anticipation of the Model X launch) in the green automotive websites in the last 48 hours.
2. Article in USA Today about Elon's divorce...the old maxim that "All news coverage is good news coverage"?
3. Needham initiated coverage and opened with a "buy" rating.
4. As Lloyd points out: "Revenge" movie DVD launch?
5. Short interest is back up to 22.7%...are we on another rollercoaster?
See the latest ratings on Street Insider.
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Mycroft
Life happens
Quarterly report to be made public Wed. Feb 15th. With the last of the Roadsters having been sold in the US, the 4th quarter and especially the 1st qtr 2012 should reflect a drop in revenue and increased losses. Whether this will result in a drop in the stock price remains to be seen.
MarketWatch, January 30, 2012: "Tesla Motors Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Financial Results"
Of course, it's possible the ramp-up of reservations will offset the lost revenue from Roadster sales.
MarketWatch, January 30, 2012: "Tesla Motors Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Financial Results"
Of course, it's possible the ramp-up of reservations will offset the lost revenue from Roadster sales.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Mycroft, your brother would be ashamed that you didn't look a little deeper...:wink:
Firstly, U.S. Roadsters sold out (more or less) only in North America. Even back in Q3 Tesla highlighted "strong customer demand for the Tesla Roadster globally" and international sales haven't stopped. Also in Q3 Tesla stated "significantly higher powertrain component sales" and we have no idea how that trend went through Q4. Meanwhile, Tesla's continued the development work for Toyota and Daimler was providing significant income in prior quarters. I'm not sure that Q4 will really see a drop in revenue from Q3 and if there is one I would be surprised if it's significant. In any case expect it to be significantly above PY.
Secondly, Model S reservations certainly seem to have jumped after the October event and, despite that the reservation cash cannot be booked as revenue, analysts and media will look very favorably on that news. Losses matter less than cash flow at this point and that cash is unrestricted for Tesla to use. Promises from Tesla that they are on schedule for production will have analysts and investors rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of all those revenues to come this year. Just imagine that the average Model S price is $75k and they deliver 5,000 this year, that equals $375m in additional revenue at strong margin levels in 2012 alone. It's pretty easy to accept Elon's word that Tesla will be profitable by 2013.
All that said, TSLA is a pretty volatile stock....
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Mycroft
Life happens
Agreed. More telling though will be the 1st qtr report. As you say, I hope the foreign Roadster sales and drivetrain income brings in the bacon. Mmmmm bacon!
TSLA is by far the most volatile stock I've ever invested in. If I wasn't so enamored of their revolutionary drivetrain, I wouldn't go near it. IMO, the Model S drivetrain is to EVs what the iPhone was to cellphones, the iPad to tablets, and the CD to recorded music.
TSLA is by far the most volatile stock I've ever invested in. If I wasn't so enamored of their revolutionary drivetrain, I wouldn't go near it. IMO, the Model S drivetrain is to EVs what the iPhone was to cellphones, the iPad to tablets, and the CD to recorded music.
WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
Jefferies initiates coverage of Tesla Motors with a Buy rating and $35 price target:
Tesla: The Apple Of Car Makers? - Forbes
Tesla: The Apple Of Car Makers? - Forbes
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Anyone have a clue where the magic $35 comes from? Everyone seems to be using this point as the estimate, but the valuation all depends on how the company is being valued. Through my metrics, if you assume the 300million in profit from sale of components, and the success of the Model S and Model X, as well as the Bluestar, the stock should be at around $300 within 3-4years. However, even if you only look to the success of the Model S and Model X, along with the components, you get a target of 60-90 (Assuming a PE of 10) Thoughts?
Citizen-T
Active Member
Targets are usually 12-month targets are they?
In any case they have hugely complex formulas that take into account things like EV market size, stock's historical performance, and price of oil among a thousand other things. Your $300 target might be appropriate based on your assumptions, but their assumptions (and different time frame) only get them to $35.
You are correct. However, I can't for the life of me figure out where this figure comes from. Since revenue for this year will reflect the sale of 5k Model S, there will be only 150-200milion (as a low ball figure assuming 25% gross margins), in profit from the sale of the Model S, and 300-500million from the sale of the power train components. Assuming a PE of 10, Tesla should be a 4.5billion - 7billion company (or roughly 2-2.5 times the current price). This assumes we only look at earnings from this year, which are misguided in a company that's major earnings are 2-3 years away.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
I've always believed that these so-called 'analysts' pulled these stock price targets out of.... thin air! :wink: They almost help make it happen too with their upgrades and such barring any catastrophic failure of the company.
Sorry if I'm offending any stock pickers here but, if they are really smart enough to figure out where there's money to be made, they'd get rich without having to sell their 'advice' and stock picks to the rest of us!
Sorry if I'm offending any stock pickers here but, if they are really smart enough to figure out where there's money to be made, they'd get rich without having to sell their 'advice' and stock picks to the rest of us!
NigelM
Recovering Member
Analyst's Target Price Levels
Analysts do some pretty heavy work with massive spreadsheets and playing with all sorts of factors; some of those factors are hard data, some are estimated calculations, and some are simply (soft data) assessments of risk factors and upside potential, consumer behavior and competitor activity. They will also look at what other analysts set out as targets and include that in their judgments. You may well ask if there's so much subjectivity why do they all come out so similar?.....I can't answer that without a healthy dose of cynicism but believe me it's never as simple as earnings multiples or something you can figure out with a simple calculator. In my experience the "target price" is more an indication of their belief which way the stock will go, but the only way to understand most target prices is to actually sit down with the analyst concerned and have him/her explain it to you.
Summary: take all analyst "target price" statements with a pinch of salt.
Analysts do some pretty heavy work with massive spreadsheets and playing with all sorts of factors; some of those factors are hard data, some are estimated calculations, and some are simply (soft data) assessments of risk factors and upside potential, consumer behavior and competitor activity. They will also look at what other analysts set out as targets and include that in their judgments. You may well ask if there's so much subjectivity why do they all come out so similar?.....I can't answer that without a healthy dose of cynicism but believe me it's never as simple as earnings multiples or something you can figure out with a simple calculator. In my experience the "target price" is more an indication of their belief which way the stock will go, but the only way to understand most target prices is to actually sit down with the analyst concerned and have him/her explain it to you.
Summary: take all analyst "target price" statements with a pinch of salt.
Yea, this has always struck me as a suspicious part of any stock analysis. If they were good enough to accurately pick stock prices they'd get rich doing so and have an incentive not to share their secret.
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