Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[EVNow]

Nissan had a headstart on the the chargers, didn't they? Also, the last I looked based on sales of the Leaf vs the Tesla when you normalize the release date (since that is the only remotely fair way to judge that...) Model S was outselling the Leaf.

Let us not forget there was a little earthquake followed by a small tsunami after they released Leaf. That disrupted Leaf a lot (esp. the Yen appreciation).

Everything is in Nissan's favor, they supposedly even have the capacity to build as many cars as they could ever WANT to sell... (As of March 2013 they have an installed capacity to produce 250,000 leafs a year)... but they are just not selling at that rate... Which indicates that not many people are willing to buy a compromised car.

Shows how people tracking TSLA aren't tracking competition. Nissan has actually had quite a bit of production issue - the main problem again being batteries. They have only recently increased production to 3k per month (for US).

Anyway, just suggesting that the market for people willing to buy a 150mile car while larger than the sub 100 mile market... is still going to be limited... both from a psychological standpoint and a real limitation.

That goes without saying. But the question is - how limited is it ? Will it eat any possible Model 3 sales - if so - how many.

BTW, we should take this discussion to a different thread - or wait for DaveT's thread on the subject.

 

[adiggs]

The cost of aluminum certainly has gone which would explain why Elon was complaining. Not good as they try to improve margins.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/aluminum/6-month/
View attachment 57148

Graphs like these make me crazy. Clearly yes, the price of aluminum has gone up. Visually, this graph suggests to me that aluminum has increased 3 or 4x over the brief time period. Of course, looking more closely, then you realize that it's not a 0 based graph, and actually aluminum is up ~$.16/lb from $.74/lb - about a 20% increase - over this brief window.

Strictly a technical comment about visualization of data - if you're not going to make your graph 0 based, then emphasize the fact by circling the bottom number on the y-axis, or in some other way make that fact part of the initial glance at the visual.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Graphs like these make me crazy. Clearly yes, the price of aluminum has gone up. Visually, this graph suggests to me that aluminum has increased 3 or 4x over the brief time period. Of course, looking more closely, then you realize that it's not a 0 based graph, and actually aluminum is up ~$.16/lb from $.74/lb - about a 20% increase - over this brief window.

Strictly a technical comment about visualization of data - if you're not going to make your graph 0 based, then emphasize the fact by circling the bottom number on the y-axis, or in some other way make that fact part of the initial glance at the visual.

Yes always look at the axis, it is the easiest way to lie with data. Even though price is up it is still severely reduced from when decision made to use aluminum that was why alcoa stock went from 40 to 7 over that period of time

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Yes always look at the axis, it is the easiest way to lie with data. Even though price is up it is still severely reduced from when decision made to use aluminum that was why alcoa stock went from 40 to 7 over that period of time

Also I am sure tesla has a contract price with Alcoa and not buying on the spot. Spot prices of aluminum are what has been going up

 

[DaveT]

That goes without saying. But the question is - how limited is it ? Will it eat any possible Model 3 sales - if so - how many.

BTW, we should take this discussion to a different thread - or wait for DaveT's thread on the subject.

My post on Model 3 competition will come later in my series as I plan to lay a framework to understand the competition.

However, I'll give a quick preview.

Many people group EVs into one category or separate EVs from ICEs. However, I think the correct way to look at it is to look at the current market segments of cars and just place EVs under the current market segments and not to treat them differently.

That said, the Model S competition is any premium large luxury sedan regardless of its fuel source.

Model 3 will go after the luxury compact sport sedan market, where the current market leader is the BMW 3 series (others include Audi A4, Lexus IS, etc).

Currently I haven't seen any auto maker (besides Tesla) reveal plans for an electric vehicle to take on the market leader of the luxury compact sports sedan market.

In order to understand the motivations/goals of current EV manufacturers (besides Tesla), one need to look at and understand the Prius market and the city car market.

The Prius market (high mileage mid-sized economy car) is what has motivated most EVs to date. The Leaf/Volt were cars that were intended to take market share of the Prius market. Even the BMW i3 was intended to go after the Prius-type market or rather I should say the luxury Prius market, looking for Prius-type buyers who wanted a bit more luxury. The big challenge of current EVs in the Prius market is that of range. Further, the Prius market is getting crowded with new high-mileage hybrids like the Accord or Camry hybrid.

There's also the city car market of very small cars (ie., Fiat 500) where some EV makers are looking to take market share.

Most (if not all) EV manufacturers or going after one of these markets - Prius, luxury Prius, or city car.

No one is going to say the Leaf or Volt is competition to the BMW 3 series. Nor are many people going to say the i3 is competition to the BMW 3 series. The BMW 3 series is just in a different league in terms of performance, handling, etc.

So in the same way, the Model 3 doesn't really have any electric car competition (because no auto maker is trying to make an EV that's better than the 3 series at the same price besides Tesla). Rather, the Model 3 competition is the BMW 3 series market.

There are going to be some auto makers that try to make a 150 mile (or even 200 mile or more) range EV. And people are going to clammer that it's competition for the Model 3. But chances are is that 150-200 mile EV from another manufacturer is not going to be in the same market as the BMW 3 series. Rather, it probably will target the Prius-type market of high-mileage mid-sized economy car which is totally different than a compact performance sports sedan.

Also, I don't think any auto manufacturer thinks it's possible to make an EV that's better than a BMW 3 series at the same price. And because they don't think it's possible, they aren't even trying to make an EV as a BMW 3 series competitor. Rather, they're content with trying to pluck away at the Prius market and city car markets.

So that's what is so revolutionary about the Model 3. It's a car that most auto makers think is not possible (a 200 mile range EV at $35k with performance/handling/acceleration as good or better than the BMW 3 series).

So, when you hear about people talking about the next great electric car by an auto maker, you should ask what market segment is that EV shooting for? If it's not aiming to be better than the BMW 3 series at the same price, then it's probably not going to be competition for the Model 3.

A final note, I personally don't think it's the right time for an electric car to displace the Prius in the high mileage mid-sized economy car market. It's going to take more time for battery costs to drop. But when it's the right time (ie., maybe 2022?) I think Tesla will release a compelling vehicle in that market, ie., the Gen4 vehicle (which I'll talk more about in my series as well).

 

[chickensevil]

Let us not forget there was a little earthquake followed by a small tsunami after they released Leaf. That disrupted Leaf a lot (esp. the Yen appreciation).

Shows how people tracking TSLA aren't tracking competition. Nissan has actually had quite a bit of production issue - the main problem again being batteries. They have only recently increased production to 3k per month (for US).

That goes without saying. But the question is - how limited is it ? Will it eat any possible Model 3 sales - if so - how many.

BTW, we should take this discussion to a different thread - or wait for DaveT's thread on the subject.

Let us also not forget that Tesla has also been faced with the same battery constraints on a bigger scale. At least Nissan has plants in the US churning out Leafs and the Batteries. So please don't yell me it is all because of issues on Japan. Even if that were the case I still point toward Tesla having similar issues and then also point to the CEO of Nissan stating that sales of the Leaf were lower than expected. So you can try to defend the product all you want but my point still stands... Pound for pound Tesla is outselling the Leaf and when Tesla has another two years under its belt it will be doing double or more in sales compared to the Leaf right now... Unless batteries continue to be an issue... This with the car costing more than double and not getting the benefit of those crazy lease deals they are offering in order to get more people to buy the Leaf.

Outside of CA how many owners are there, really? I have seen all of two Leafs in the Nova/DC area and yet (not counting Tesla events I have participated in) I have seen more Model S on the roads in this area than I can keep track of.

I'm sorry, but the leaf has a very limited target audience. I agree with Dave's assessment that the Prius competitor is just not ready for prime time in the EV market.

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Also Dave, that is quite the "preview" you should just title that post and link it as is because that really is the best way to put how to judge competition. For its market segment the Leaf, if it was really worth it, should be able to sell as many cars as they can make and then some... Since they should be able to compete with the Prius/Civic market... Which is just not happening. I don't think it would or will until they can make it have more range for the same price ~30k

 

[ckessel]

Outside of CA how many owners are there, really?

There are ton of them in Portland, OR. I see multiple every day commuting about 15 miles from a suburb to downtown. I see a Model S maybe every other day and usually it's the same one or two. Portland is a good market for Tesla and I still see way more LEAFs on the road than Model S.

 

[adiggs]

There are ton of them in Portland, OR. I see multiple every day commuting about 15 miles from a suburb to downtown. I see a Model S maybe every other day and usually it's the same one or two. Portland is a good market for Tesla and I still see way more LEAFs on the road than Model S.

I'm also in the Portland area and have about the same experience as ckessels. I'm pretty sure you'll find a similar experience amongst those living in the greater Seattle area as well. I believe that an important part of the contribution to the popularity of the Leaf in the Pacific Northwest is how well the West Coast Electric Highway has been built out in the WA/OR area, with both 6 kw and DC quick charger stalls at a large number of locations, comfortably situated within range of each other as measured by the range of a Leaf.

Kind of how the Supercharger network is expanding people's mental model of what a long ranged electric car (Model S) can do, the WCEH is doing the same in a regional area for Leaf owners, with similar impact on uptake of the cars.

I'm not saying that the CHADEMO network here makes a Leaf just as usable as a Model S, but like the Supercharger network, it does expand the absolute range and utility of the Leaf, and that expands the market of people for whom the car works (with the price / lease deals dramatically expanding the pool of people that can consider the car).

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Many people group EVs into one category or separate EVs from ICEs. However, I think the correct way to look at it is to look at the current market segments of cars and just place EVs under the current market segments and not to treat them differently.

That said, the Model S competition is any premium large luxury sedan regardless of its fuel source.

.

Easy for me to agree with the particular (Model S competition are other large luxury sedans), and I also agree with the more general proposition. If the competition for one EV is another EV, then more fundamentally, the market isn't shifting from gas engines to electric motors for propulsion. For electric cars to move the market, they HAVE to be better/faster/cheaper/easier in some form or fashion (preferably all!) than their gas competition, or they won't be adopted in meaningful numbers.

One reason for all the segments amongst the gas cars is that people have a lot of specific use cases for their personal transportation. Today, many of those use cases are poorly or not at all supported within the EV world (like say pickup truck).

Clearly, for somebody that has decided to drive electric, there will be some degree of substitution among the various EV's. That's no different than occurs today within the gas engine cars. Heh - the short version of all this amounts to "well - duh" for me

As an investor, I guess I like to see people going short because they think Tesla's competition are other EVs. I believe they are deeply mistaken in that investment thesis, and that will rebound to my benefit.

 

[FluxCap]

My post on Model 3 competition will come later in my series as I plan to lay a framework to understand the competition.

However, I'll give a quick preview.

Many people group EVs into one category or separate EVs from ICEs. However, I think the correct way to look at it is to look at the current market segments of cars and just place EVs under the current market segments and not to treat them differently.

That said, the Model S competition is any premium large luxury sedan regardless of its fuel source.

Model 3 will go after the luxury compact sport sedan market, where the current market leader is the BMW 3 series (others include Audi A4, Lexus IS, etc).

Currently I haven't seen any auto maker (besides Tesla) reveal plans for an electric vehicle to take on the market leader of the luxury compact sports sedan market.

In order to understand the motivations/goals of current EV manufacturers (besides Tesla), one need to look at and understand the Prius market and the city car market.

The Prius market (high mileage mid-sized economy car) is what has motivated most EVs to date. The Leaf/Volt were cars that were intended to take market share of the Prius market. Even the BMW i3 was intended to go after the Prius-type market or rather I should say the luxury Prius market, looking for Prius-type buyers who wanted a bit more luxury. The big challenge of current EVs in the Prius market is that of range. Further, the Prius market is getting crowded with new high-mileage hybrids like the Accord or Camry hybrid.

There's also the city car market of very small cars (ie., Fiat 500) where some EV makers are looking to take market share.

Most (if not all) EV manufacturers or going after one of these markets - Prius, luxury Prius, or city car.

No one is going to say the Leaf or Volt is competition to the BMW 3 series. Nor are many people going to say the i3 is competition to the BMW 3 series. The BMW 3 series is just in a different league in terms of performance, handling, etc.

So in the same way, the Model 3 doesn't really have any electric car competition (because no auto maker is trying to make an EV that's better than the 3 series at the same price besides Tesla). Rather, the Model 3 competition is the BMW 3 series market.

There are going to be some auto makers that try to make a 150 mile (or even 200 mile or more) range EV. And people are going to clammer that it's competition for the Model 3. But chances are is that 150-200 mile EV from another manufacturer is not going to be in the same market as the BMW 3 series. Rather, it probably will target the Prius-type market of high-mileage mid-sized economy car which is totally different than a compact performance sports sedan.

Also, I don't think any auto manufacturer thinks it's possible to make an EV that's better than a BMW 3 series at the same price. And because they don't think it's possible, they aren't even trying to make an EV as a BMW 3 series competitor. Rather, they're content with trying to pluck away at the Prius market and city car markets.

So that's what is so revolutionary about the Model 3. It's a car that most auto makers think is not possible (a 200 mile range EV at $35k with performance/handling/acceleration as good or better than the BMW 3 series).

So, when you hear about people talking about the next great electric car by an auto maker, you should ask what market segment is that EV shooting for? If it's not aiming to be better than the BMW 3 series at the same price, then it's probably not going to be competition for the Model 3.

A final note, I personally don't think it's the right time for an electric car to displace the Prius in the high mileage mid-sized economy car market. It's going to take more time for battery costs to drop. But when it's the right time (ie., maybe 2022?) I think Tesla will release a compelling vehicle in that market, ie., the Gen4 vehicle (which I'll talk more about in my series as well).

Fantastic overview of the crucial, still-misunderstood game-changer that flows directly from the Tesla Motors Secret Master Plan. I plan to share this post with friends. Thanks again, Dave.

 

[DaveT]

Fantastic overview of the crucial, still-misunderstood game-changer that flows directly from the Tesla Motors Secret Master Plan. I plan to share this post with friends. Thanks again, Dave.

So, I'm starting a free weekly email newsletter (see more info at Tesla Weekly). I'll share more a bit later about why I'm starting it. But I feel the need to get accurate info about Tesla out to a broader audience.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

So, I'm starting a free weekly email newsletter (see more info at Tesla Weekly). I'll share more a bit later about why I'm starting it. But I feel the need to get accurate info about Tesla out to a broader audience.

I subscribed. Always good to get news about Tesla.

 

[Lump]

Subscribed.

 

[AlMc]

Dave, I would pay for a subscription.

 

[Muskol]

So, I'm starting a free weekly email newsletter (see more info at Tesla Weekly). I'll share more a bit later about why I'm starting it. But I feel the need to get accurate info about Tesla out to a broader audience.

Looking forward to this, subscribed and passed the link on to some friends.

 

[mershaw2001]

go dave go! I subscribed!

 

[PeterW]

Subscribed, thanks Dave

 

[kcveins]

Sign me up!

 

[mibaro2]

subscribed.
Thanks Dave.

 

[Chickenlittle]

So, I'm starting a free weekly email newsletter (see more info at Tesla Weekly). I'll share more a bit later about why I'm starting it. But I feel the need to get accurate info about Tesla out to a broader audience.

Have you considered how to monitize it yet? Will you branch to other companies or tech? Mention particular investments/trades? Others have tried to branch off but all I know of appear to have had limited success (depending on how goals are defined). Have always thought TMC would fulfill its mission better without investment thread but of course it would gravitate toward that and having the thread can isolate it to that section

 

[LST]

Subscribed, Looking forward to your "Tesla Weekly" . Thanks a lot for sharing your valuable insight Dave.

 

[chickensevil]

Have you considered how to monitize it yet? Will you branch to other companies or tech? Mention particular investments/trades? Others have tried to branch off but all I know of appear to have had limited success (depending on how goals are defined). Have always thought TMC would fulfill its mission better without investment thread but of course it would gravitate toward that and having the thread can isolate it to that section

I am actually really glad they did, and was surprised upon first finding this site that there was a whole section for it. Normally such things can be frowned upon and I was really happy that Doug and the moderators have allowed this section to flourish and become it's own core part of the site. Because before this site all I had was arguing with people who couldn't see two feet in front of their face and it wasn't really helping me to get a clear picture on the company since everyone was pushing their own agenda. The crazy nonsense seems to get shot down pretty quickly here (whether it is the overly ambitious or the drop to zero crowd... both extremes tend to get balanced out).

Just my two cents. But I would love to hear Dave's insights in other companies