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A few summary points that I'll share:
1. I've been in deep thought about how a Trump presidency affects TSLA.
2. I see lots of shallow thinking going around everywhere about this.
3. Substantive and truly value-add analysis needs to start with understanding Trump himself and doing a deep dive with him. 99%+ people don't have the time/value/motivation/etc to spend the time necessary to truly understand Trump, which would require hundreds if not thousands of hours of research.
4. Substantive and truly value-add analysis also needs to include deep understanding of the context Trump is now in (ie., politics, government, economy, etc). Most people lack this background and/or time and know-how on how to gain this.
5. I'm currently fairly disenchanted with the culture here on TMC (constant cheerleading, mocking and minimizing of legitimate concerns, FUD against anything competing against Tesla now and in the future, lack of deep and critical thinking, etc). And takes not just a lot of effort to post my thoughts but also share updates, since my thoughts are evolving. So, I'm not sure this is the right venue for me. To be honest, I've gained very little the past few years on here compared to my time/effort expended, and I've been posting almost solely to help others here think deeper, more critical, and to be better investors. But I think my efforts are against the grain of the flow here and it's tough to swim upstream and not get exhausted.
But I do appreciate those have engaged with me in meaningful and thoughtful discussion, and I love the value it does add. I just wish there was a better format for better discussion. I do have a lot of ideas on how this can be improved here on TMC, but most of the ideas entail big changes in the actual software itself.
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First of, I am just an observer, Not as US citizen, and I don't live in the USA. No political preference. So I am just giving my observance about Trump.
Imho, Trump was faking it to make it during his campaign, debates, and primary. The real Trump is serious about doing his best to make America great again. The media was taking Trump too literally, but not seriously:
- Ban Muslim: Oh, Trump is Anti-Muslim vs Trying to defeat ISIS.
- Build a Wall: Racism. vs Trying to reduce drug distribution and crime rate.
And he succeeded in gaining media attention, and thus other Americans attention. Look what happened after he won. His victory speech was calm, collected, inclusive, and no more trash talking. His meeting with Obama and Paul Ryan showed that he is a different person than who we was during his campaign.
If you think USA as a business, wouldn't it be great to have a leader who is a business man? Trump track records has been quite amazing. He has developed real-estate projects many times on time, and underbudget. USA deserves to be lead by a person who knows how to develop something.
Plus if Peter Thiel is going to be his technology advisor, I think this will fare great for companies like TSLA.
Imho, as long as Trump can shut up and not say those idiotic things, he would be great.
One last thought, Trump hates losing. He will not ruin this chance.. Imo, he will use it to prove everyone wrong about him, he will try his best to be one of the best president in history, just like how he proved everyone wrong about this election.
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We honestly don't know who Trump will govern as, other than it will be a lot of crony capitalism. Tesla might be the beneficiary of that, merely by being a very U.S. centric manufacturing company. Will it offset the other problems? None of us know.
There are some kinds of people that are good at business that would be good at government. But that's a very few number. I would hazard that most would not be good at it. And Trump's record in business is dubious with a lot of start up capital and he tends to hurt a lot of people while enriching himself. Will that translate to government well? I have my doubts, but hope he ends up being a much better president than many of us fear. He certainly could do a lot of good if he chose to do so.
It is possible that President Trump could seize upon Musk enterprises as the right way forward in transportation, energy, space, and artificial intelligence. It is possible. It is, in many ways, an accident that Republicans have been so against Musk's business efforts. Ideologically, they should be for what he does. But the Republicans are controlled by a very small group of people, as opposed to the ideals that many of its voters hold in their heads. That small group of people have very narrow interests. It will be interesting to see if President Trump is really a friend of theirs or not.
There are some kinds of people that are good at business that would be good at government. But that's a very few number. I would hazard that most would not be good at it. And Trump's record in business is dubious with a lot of start up capital and he tends to hurt a lot of people while enriching himself. Will that translate to government well? I have my doubts, but hope he ends up being a much better president than many of us fear. He certainly could do a lot of good if he chose to do so.
It is possible that President Trump could seize upon Musk enterprises as the right way forward in transportation, energy, space, and artificial intelligence. It is possible. It is, in many ways, an accident that Republicans have been so against Musk's business efforts. Ideologically, they should be for what he does. But the Republicans are controlled by a very small group of people, as opposed to the ideals that many of its voters hold in their heads. That small group of people have very narrow interests. It will be interesting to see if President Trump is really a friend of theirs or not.
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Trump will not let republican legislators control him, he has his own agenda.
Why is Trump making nice with Democrats? A theory
At Times, Trump May Tap Unlikely Ally in Congress: Chuck Schumer
My hunch is that Trump will be even more bipartisan than Obama.
We all see something different in Trump. We don't know what Trump we will get on any particular issue or timeframe. We can hope that we get the very best of what most of the people elected him for, including rooting out corruption and complacency in Washington. But even that Trump will have to pander to the base that elected him on a slew of issues. But it remains to be seen how he behaves with the small Republican power elite - and I don't mean the politicians, I mean the people that pull the strings of those politicians. That and how he deals with the rest of the world. As we enter this new age, we all hope for the best version of Trump.
I do think what he has going for him is that the Democrats, by nature, mostly will work with him on issues and not be the party of no just to deny him branding. I felt disgusted that Republicans often blocked Obama's efforts to do the things that Republicans wanted done to avoid giving him credit. And hurt the country in the process. While I don't doubt there will be some of that, I think the Democrats are more keen on getting some stuff done even if that means Trump gets the credit. I certainly hope that is the case.
Dave, Seeking Alpha allows for individual contributions in the form of long articles, for which, I believe they also pay. It's a viable alternative to get your thoughts across, especially if you became a contributor there. However, the discourse in the comment section is usually very poor.
As for Trump, I think the obvious conclusion is that his administration will be negative for both EVs and solar. However, one can imagine scenarios where Tesla would benefit even in the light of dwindling government support.
One example. Imagine if Congress decided to remove the EV tax credit in 2018 or 2019. This could actually benefit Tesla versus their future EV competition. Why? Because Tesla will trigger their 200K unit countdown sometime next year and exhaust their EV tax credit a year after that. Absent a credit removal by Congress, future EV competitors would enjoy a $7500 price advantage over Tesla. If the credit is removed, then they're essentially all on the same playing field.
There are other arguments that could be made about the effect of relaxing CAFE standards and also whether the Chinese might be negotiated into relaxing their 30% vehicle import tax.
So, despite the negative sentiment about the new administration's views on energy, I think it's too early to determine how this will all play out for Tesla.
I am an outsider (not US citizen, doesn't live in the USA), I do not know the inside out of US politics. But here is what comes to my mind when Trumps declared to run for presidency. He is quite rich ($2-3B net worth), he has a good life and family (Eric, Donad Jr, and Barron, and Ivanka turned out to be a really good daughter). Why choose a tough life of a President of the USA? He also will not take salary. Imo, he is serious about trying to make America great again.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You shouldn't. Businesses and governments have very different goals.
See above, but, hopefully you'd at least get a good business man.
Indeed, given money by his father to start out, bailed out by his father, and his businesses declared bankruptcy 6 times.
Certainly amazing, but whatever good Trump may achieve as president will not be the result of his business acumen.
I'll pose a question here.. what is the ONE thing that will drive Trump as President? Meaning, what's the overall, guiding value or philosophy that drove Trump to run for President, that drove his campaign, and that will fuel his Presidency? Or perhaps the guiding value/philosophy is going to be different during his Presidency than his campaign. Regardless, what is that overall guiding value/philosophy/paradigm going to be?
Now I don't want a bunch of answers from folks that haven't done their homework. So, if you don't know Trump extremely well (ie., have listened to at least a few dozen hours of his speeches/interviews/etc and read his books on politics, etc), then please refrain from posting because I don't want this to be another political waste-of-time discussion. Rather, I'm asking for what the core of Trump will be as President, from those who have thought deeply about it and have substantive thoughts regarding it.
If I get some substantive answers, I'll post the second question.
Now I don't want a bunch of answers from folks that haven't done their homework. So, if you don't know Trump extremely well (ie., have listened to at least a few dozen hours of his speeches/interviews/etc and read his books on politics, etc), then please refrain from posting because I don't want this to be another political waste-of-time discussion. Rather, I'm asking for what the core of Trump will be as President, from those who have thought deeply about it and have substantive thoughts regarding it.
If I get some substantive answers, I'll post the second question.
He's been groomed/flirting with presidency since 1980 (that's 36 years!). Folks has been wanting Trump to run for presidency since 1980. Here is dozens of video of his speeches/interviews:
I don't know why he would run for a president. I am an outsider (not US citizen, doesn't live in the US). But that's the first thing I ask: Why would he run? What would be the point? To make more money? What the f* does he need more money for? He's got billions of dollars. He's 70 years old. He's done everything in life he could of ever wanted to do. So why? Maybe now he wants to dedicated the last portion of his life to America. What would a billionaire want in the last years of his life? To go down as the Best President in US history. He has absolutely no reason to screw over the USA. Why would he want to die being the worst President? That's not his style. Look at his kids (hottie Ivanka!!) for Christ sake. Why would he shame them for the rest of their lives? He loves his family. So maybe, just maybe, he genuinely wants to dedicated the last portion of his life to America.
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I'm not a US citizen either, and this is not probably a very informed post, so use it as you wish.
But I personally think that the core of Trump is the word "great".
Apart from his slogan, he's (for better or worse) a person who loves power, loves himself, loves big things, loves showing off. I'm Italian, and I've seen Berlusconi in politics for 20 years. He was seen as the "neoliberal/libertarian revolution" that we never had (although I don't find an American equivalent of what "liberale" means in Italian, very context-specific). But, largely, he used power, because he liked it. He used it a lot for himself (media, tax cuts, avoiding conflict of interest, etc.) and, imho, just liked it. Of course he has values, but it's very difficult to me to say what core values he had, apart power for its own sake, being in charge. He wanted to appeal the Christian values, but everyone knows what he was in private life. He always appealed to the ego and pockets of his voters, promising to cut taxes, all the time. There was no real vision.
I don't think that Trump is that different. This is why there is so much uncertainty: nobody really knows what he thinks. From what we heard by the media (maybe it's FUD, I don't know) he just wants to "make America great again", which nobody really know what it means, leaving the hard work on policies and details to his surrogates and team. He wants many yes-man near him, his family, and he's very vindicative to past enemies (as Thiel is, btw). He wants to be in control, to be loved and envied, to be at the center of attention.
So, in a way, for me the core it's not what Trump thinks in political terms.
It's how his mind works.
But I personally think that the core of Trump is the word "great".
Apart from his slogan, he's (for better or worse) a person who loves power, loves himself, loves big things, loves showing off. I'm Italian, and I've seen Berlusconi in politics for 20 years. He was seen as the "neoliberal/libertarian revolution" that we never had (although I don't find an American equivalent of what "liberale" means in Italian, very context-specific). But, largely, he used power, because he liked it. He used it a lot for himself (media, tax cuts, avoiding conflict of interest, etc.) and, imho, just liked it. Of course he has values, but it's very difficult to me to say what core values he had, apart power for its own sake, being in charge. He wanted to appeal the Christian values, but everyone knows what he was in private life. He always appealed to the ego and pockets of his voters, promising to cut taxes, all the time. There was no real vision.
I don't think that Trump is that different. This is why there is so much uncertainty: nobody really knows what he thinks. From what we heard by the media (maybe it's FUD, I don't know) he just wants to "make America great again", which nobody really know what it means, leaving the hard work on policies and details to his surrogates and team. He wants many yes-man near him, his family, and he's very vindicative to past enemies (as Thiel is, btw). He wants to be in control, to be loved and envied, to be at the center of attention.
So, in a way, for me the core it's not what Trump thinks in political terms.
It's how his mind works.
You are one of the very few informed rational bulls left here. I certainly hope you continue to share your knowledge/thoughts.
Please don't let others discourage you. I know it's hard but you know there are enough people here that respect your views.
I have a lot of friends who are Psychologists (including my SO). All say it would be unethical to diagnose him remotely, but every one of them have also said his behavior is spot on consistent with a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. There is a possibility he's acting, but the behavior is classic for the mental illness:
Hallmarks of narcissistic personality disorder - BPD Central
One friend was a Psychiatrist who worked many years as the on call doctor in a Psych ward. Over the years he saw just about every mental illness there is up close and personal and he said Trump's behavior was classic for NPD.
An article on the subject by a professor of Psych:
The Narcissist
Food for thought. I'm not a Psychologist, nor can anyone diagnose 100% from a distance.
Hallmarks of narcissistic personality disorder - BPD Central
One friend was a Psychiatrist who worked many years as the on call doctor in a Psych ward. Over the years he saw just about every mental illness there is up close and personal and he said Trump's behavior was classic for NPD.
An article on the subject by a professor of Psych:
The Narcissist
Food for thought. I'm not a Psychologist, nor can anyone diagnose 100% from a distance.
The reason Trump ran for president was explained in one sentence by his campaign slogan. He's had that message from day one. It's printed on every hat. That's his premise.
The realization of that premise will take many forms. He's highlighted a number of areas of importance including
- Renegotiating bad trade deals
- Stopping illegal immigration
- Fixing health care
- Achieving energy independence.
- Preventing the over-regulation of business
- Bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
At his core, he's a negotiator. He wrote a book about it. He doesn't tip his hand about future plans, and his initial position is beyond where he expects to succeed. That way he has room to negotiate back to what he really wants.
Pertinent to Tesla, the core of his economic message is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. Unlike every recent president, he's not a free trader. He's a fair trader. Through the course of the campaign he repeatedly mentioned China's import taxes. Musk has mentioned them as well. It's one of the reasons that American car companies fare poorly in China and why Tesla's future Asia factory will need to be built there as well.
And, ultimately, having been both a Democrat and Republican, I suspect he's, on some level, a pragmatist
The realization of that premise will take many forms. He's highlighted a number of areas of importance including
- Renegotiating bad trade deals
- Stopping illegal immigration
- Fixing health care
- Achieving energy independence.
- Preventing the over-regulation of business
- Bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
At his core, he's a negotiator. He wrote a book about it. He doesn't tip his hand about future plans, and his initial position is beyond where he expects to succeed. That way he has room to negotiate back to what he really wants.
Pertinent to Tesla, the core of his economic message is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. Unlike every recent president, he's not a free trader. He's a fair trader. Through the course of the campaign he repeatedly mentioned China's import taxes. Musk has mentioned them as well. It's one of the reasons that American car companies fare poorly in China and why Tesla's future Asia factory will need to be built there as well.
And, ultimately, having been both a Democrat and Republican, I suspect he's, on some level, a pragmatist
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
More like he pretended to write a book about it Donald Trump’s Ghostwriter Tells All
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I agree. And that may be a good thing. I've only had negative thoughts about him, but his ego may actually make him try to actually do a good job as president. Leave a positive impression on the country of his presidency.
Which is funny, I think it really comes down to making America powerful again, #1 in the world. It's right under his nose though - make America a self-sustaining renewable energy nation, and you won't have to be threaten by the rest of the world. Make a nation an island of free flowing electronics, where our cities and transportation run almost free, all the meanwhile manufacturing these products for other countries.
The whole "take the money away from the UN climate change fund" is BS. No, we need to take it away from the military (Pentagon says climate change is a serious threat), bring our troops back, and what? "Make America Great Again"
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