Australian BEV sales data

I’ve been collecting data about Australian BEV sales for my own interest for some time now, but I thought it was about time I posted it somewhere. So here goes.

The main source I’m using is CarExpert’s monthly VFACTS sales reports. The monthly sales data goes back only to July 2020 - that’s when CarExpert started including BEV sales figures in their reports. There’s also one important caveat: Tesla sales are not included in the monthly data prior to March 2022. This is because Tesla refused to submit sales data to the VFACTS database. The company had a change of heart in March 2022 and finally started participating. Annual sales data does include Tesla, as Drive found some annual Tesla registration data, so I was able to add Tesla’s sales to the VFACTS sales from other brands. This lack of Tesla monthly data is why some graphs go back only to the start of 2022 (or February 2023 for the 12 month rolling graph) – there’s limited point in going back further when more than half the sales are missing.


New sales grew strongly in 2023, reaching 87,000 units. This was well up on the 33,000 sales of 2022. Cumulative sales for the 2020s soared well above the 100,000 unit milestone.

But there was a major slowdown in growth in the second half of the year, with H2 sales being only slightly higher than H1 sales. Aside from the peak in June, the market has really been flat since March.

 

[RichY3]

Nice work - very clear and easy to follow. Do you have any comparison data for ice numbers?

 

[Aryll]

Do you have any comparison data for ice numbers?

I do. I had to split the post into two parts, so here's part two.

This next graph shows how many models achieved certain volume milestones. Note that all models to have achieved a particular milestone are counted, even if a model has also reached higher milestones. For example, the Model Y (the best selling vehicle) is the sole vehicle in the 20,000+ and 25000+ groups, but it is also one of the vehicles in the 500+ group.

2023 saw an all-time record for new vehicle sales, and this had the effect of pushing ICE sales up despite its share falling. Reportedly, demand for new orders is falling and the Covid/supply chain induced backlog is being cleared, so ICE sales (and new vehicle sales more generally) will likely fall in 2024.

 

[Vostok]

I’ve been collecting data about Australian BEV sales for my own interest for some time now, but I thought it was about time I posted it somewhere. So here goes.

Nice work. I used to maintain the thread below for a few years for BEV sales in NSW. NSW has the most comprehensive vehicle registration data of all the states, and it’s been available online for years, whereas none of the other states do it.

So if you wanted to, you could take the historic Tesla data from NSW as a proxy and scale it up for national figures prior to March 2022. NSW is approximately 32% of national population, so triple the NSW Tesla figures as an approximation for the national figures.

Tesla market share of BEVs in NSW

I will keep this thread updated quarterly with the Tesla market share of BEVs in NSW based on the RMS registration statistics. The chart is below. The first Teslas appeared in the stats in 4Q 2014 with 65 registered. The 1Q 2018 stats have just been released showing NSW has cracked the 1k mark...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Hairyman]

This site may also have some data of interest

 

[karlos22]

Definitely a lot more BEV’s on the road now which is great to see, but it is putting a lot of pressure on the charging infrastructure, which is sorely lacking. I notice that Tesla has a LOT of new supercharger stalls coming.

No wonder they’re the market leader.

 

[[Zombie]]

Nice sleuthing, and great job on the graphs!

There’s also one important caveat: Tesla sales are not included in the monthly data prior to March 2022. This is because Tesla refused to submit sales data to the VFACTS database.

I used to collect data on Tesla arrivals from the early days - mostly via a source on this forum who had access to shipping manifests (similar to VedaPrime)
I have monthly data from 2016 to 2020
The source disappeared at the end of 2020 but by then Drive had the annual info, as you discovered - plus VedaPrime's public posts on twitter.

2014	184
2015	576
2016	597
2017	1217
2018	823
2019	3705
2020	2949
2021	12094
2022	19594
2023	46116

Tesla Australia delivered its 10,000 car in 2020, its 20,000th car in 2021, it's 40,000th in 2022 and its 80,000th in 2023.

Will we see another 80,000 delivered this year?

 

[Nomac]

Definitely a lot more BEV’s on the road now which is great to see, but it is putting a lot of pressure on the charging infrastructure, which is sorely lacking. I notice that Tesla has a LOT of new supercharger stalls coming.

No wonder they’re the market leader.

The Saturday Paper had a big story about charging problems in OZ. Not one mention of Tesla cars or Tesla's fantastic charging network. Poor reliability of non Tesla charger (about 75% in some places) and poor comms means the uninformed who buy non-Tesla cars are suffering big time.
The big Porsche dealer in Willoughby has a charger for their v. expensive EVs which they lockup at night for "security reasons".
Amusing to see the new BMW I7 which has a nose like a Mack truck so will need much more frequent charging. As we know, Tesla's have exceptionally low Coeff of Drag. MS is .208, M3 .23

 

[Aryll]

The Australian Automotive Dealers Association recently started releasing monthly reports about used vehicle sales, which is apparently the first time in depth data about the used market has been collected. Now the AADA has just released a summary for the whole of 2023, giving us 12 months of data to look at. And yes, the data tallies sales from a variety of sources, not just dealerships.

 

[Aryll]

January new vehicle update.

January sales: 4893
January market share: 5.4%
Rolling 12 month sales: 87,258

 

[meloccom]

I think February and March will show a marked increase as Tesla tries to catch up after the logistics problems of last year.

 

[Miggy]

Meanwhile in New Zealand Sales have tanked to an all-time low. With only 27 sales for January 2024.
Stock earmarked for NZ could be diverted to Aussie.

How many Tesla's in New Zealand

The MIA Register shows two new ones in Feb 2015, Private Imports but does anyone know how many Tesla's there are in New Zealand?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Aryll]

February new vehicle update.

February sales: 10,111
February market share: 9.6%
YTD sales: 15,004
YTD market share: 7.7%
Rolling 12 month sales: 91,437

 

[Quickst]

Thanks

When will BEV new car sales reach 30%?
Im more interested in % rather than raw numbers.

 

[Hairyman]

At the current doubling rate about 2-3 years, but that might depend on how EV Utes and medium to large SUVs turn out.

 

[Vostok]

When will BEV new car sales reach 30%?

Well under the NSW Road Usage Charge law (which will have to be amended or repealed at some point due to the HC ruling) the RUC was going to start on 1 July 2027, or when zero emissions vehicles were 30% of all new sales, whichever came first. So that provides a clue as to roughly when the NSW Government thought it might happen.

I think mid 2027 is too pessimistic, 30% is likely to be reached in 2026, late 2025 at a stretch.

 

[kmsyd777]

Meanwhile in New Zealand Sales have tanked to an all-time low. With only 27 sales for January 2024.
Stock earmarked for NZ could be diverted to Aussie.

How many Tesla's in New Zealand

The MIA Register shows two new ones in Feb 2015, Private Imports but does anyone know how many Tesla's there are in New Zealand?

teslamotorsclub.com

They might be low on stock I'm guessing, if you track the delivery ships, there aren't very many (in fact almost 0 tracking towards NZ at the moment). May be, they get some inventory from AU shores once they get delivered here... not sure

 

[Davemcd]

They might be low on stock I'm guessing, if you track the delivery ships, there aren't very many (in fact almost 0 tracking towards NZ at the moment). May be, they get some inventory from AU shores once they get delivered here... not sure

NZ has a lot more options Oz for EV's and BYD NZ seems a lot better then OZ.
Also think rebates stopped??