Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

He must have read the results of my poll on this topic.

I think his timeline makes sense. We are seeing several companies that have good geofenced robotaxis, at various stages of commercialization. And Tesla and Mobileye are making bold claims about consumer AVs. But nobody can actually commercialize AVs at scale yet. It will take a few more years for that to happen.

 

[diplomat33]

Mobileye just announced another partnership, this time to build an autonomous city shuttle in the US:

Benteler EV Systems, Beep Inc., and Mobileye, an Intel Company, today announced a strategic collaboration to develop and deploy automotive-grade, fully electric, autonomous movers in public and private communities across North America. Aimed at first- and last-mile use cases in urban areas, the shuttles are due to begin production deployments in the United States in 2024.

Concept drawing:

Autonomous Movers Set for US Launch in 2024

Benteler, Beep and Mobileye plan to develop and deploy autonomous movers to address micro-transit needs across public and private communities.

www.intel.com

 

[EVNow]

I think his timeline makes sense. We are seeing several companies that have good geofenced robotaxis, at various stages of commercialization. And Tesla and Mobileye are making bold claims about consumer AVs. But nobody can actually commercialize AVs at scale yet. It will take a few more years for that to happen.

How about GM ? Door to Door next year (or was that this - you never know because of calendar year / model year confusion).

And XPeng.

Anyway, Adam Jonas is talking about actual robotaxis - not consumers AVs.

Fun Fact : Remember this was pre-split. So, post split - this would be bear case of $2 and bull case of $100.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has a strange approach to covering Tesla where he is significantly hedging his prediction with an extreme bear case of $10 per share, a base case of $250 per share, and a bull case of $500 per share.

 

[diplomat33]

How about GM ? Door to Door next year (or was that this - you never know because of calendar year / model year confusion).

GM's door-to-door system called Ultra Cruise will be L2. It will be hands-free but eye's on the road. So it will not be autonomous. It does not count as an "AV". AVs have to be L4 or L5.

Xpeng's City NGP is also L2. So it does not count as an AV.

Anyway, Adam Jonas is talking about actual robotaxis - not consumers AVs.

He says "autonomous car/robotaxi". Autonomous car is the same as autonomous vehicle. So I think he was talking about both consumer AVs and robotaxis.

 

[EVNow]

GM's door-to-door system called Ultra Cruise will be L2. It will be hands-free but eye's on the road. So it will not be autonomous. It does not count as an "AV". AVs have to be L4 or L5.

Xpeng's City NGP is also L2. So it does not count as an AV.

I'm not a block/white kind of guy.

Its a sliding scale.

I also don't care about stupid levels.

 

[diplomat33]

I'm not a block/white kind of guy.

Its a sliding scale.

The SAE levels are not a sliding scale. A car either is autonomous or not autonomous. There is no in between.

 

[EVNow]

The SAE levels are not a sliding scale. A car either is autonomous or not autonomous. There is no in between.

And SAE levels get the due respect they deserve from me

ps : Like the example of L3 Honda Legend almost hitting a truck and had to be rescued by the driver. Anyone can claim L3 even if the failure rate is 100 / mile.

 

[EVNow]

He says "autonomous car/robotaxi". Autonomous car is the same as autonomous vehicle. So I think he was talking about both consumer AVs and robotaxis.

Possible - but I think he is using the terms interchangeably. His audience is investors - not SA"E" suits.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I'm not a block/white kind of guy.

Its a sliding scale.

I also don't care about stupid levels.

What is in between a system that requires a driver to actively monitor it and one that does not? Seems pretty black and white to me.

 

[diplomat33]

I also don't care about stupid levels.

You may think they are stupid but they are the official definition that the AV industry uses to classify autonomous driving. Until the AV industry adopts a new classification system, we have to use them when talking about autonomous driving.

 

[EVNow]

What is in between a system that requires a driver to actively monitor it and one that does not? Seems pretty black and white to me.

What do you call a L3 system that would crash into a truck on a demo drive ?

The question is not whether a system "requires" monitoring or not. The question is what level of risk are the driver & the OEM willing to take. Honda was willing to take insanely high level of risk selling that "L3" system because they were only selling ~ 100 cars. So, for them it was low financial risk - but for an individual driver with exactly one life it would be very high risk if not monitored !

Don't confuse SAE committee compromises for real scholarship.

The only important thing is failure rate for an ODD. The lower the failure rate, the better the system is. At some failure rate the Legal, PR, Marketing & Actuaries of an OEM decide they can announce the system to not need "active monitoring". Thats about it. That level is going to be different for different companies, for different ODDs etc.

Yes, there are some features of L4/L5 like safey parking to the side etc .... but those are trivial if you can master the rest.

 

[EVNow]

You may think they are stupid but they are the official definition that the AV industry uses to classify autonomous driving. Until the AV industry adopts a new classification system, we have to use them when talking about autonomous driving.

LOL - are we in the same country ? We don't "have" to use them. Its not the law.

BTW, are you a bureaucrat ? You definitely behave like one.

 

[Daniel in SD]

What do you call a L3 system that would crash into a truck on a demo drive ?

Beta. haha. I have no idea what Honda is thinking and I don't know anything about the Japanese culture. If that system was released in the US it would already be recalled and it would be a major embarrassment for whatever company released it.

I am confident that any system that does require a driver to actively monitor it that is released in the US will be safe enough for me to be comfortable using. I think you're worried about hypotheticals that are not going to happen.

 

[EVNow]

I don't know anything about the Japanese culture.

But you are somehow sure SAE has the right approach and definitions for 100+ countries

SAE levels are a pathetic failure because they don't standardize the needed quality and how to confirm the quality.

 

[diplomat33]

LOL - are we in the same country ? We don't "have" to use them. Its not the law.

BTW, are you a bureaucrat ? You definitely behave like one.

No, I am not a bureaucrat. LOL. But I believe in following official standards. If everybody just makes up their own definitions for autonomous driving, it would be impossible to have a rational discussion about AVs.

 

[EVNow]

No, I am not a bureaucrat. LOL. But I believe in following official standards. If everybody just makes up their own definitions for autonomous driving, it would be impossible to have a rational discussion about AVs.

Yes - I understand all about having a sub-par standard is better than no standard at all.

But some "standards" are so poor, they should be thrown out. Levels are one of those. What were they thinking ... or more accurately why were they not thinking ? I understand compromises, behind the door politicking that is inherent in all standard setting. But this one is just impractical and more importantly dangerous - as we see with the Honda L3 Legend.

This kind of standard should give a clear idea about the ability (which includes quality) of systems. To completely "forget" about quality is inexcusable. So, I refuse to have them dictate our conversations.

SAE standard levels get an "F" from me.

 

[Daniel in SD]

But you are somehow sure SAE has the right approach and definitions for 100+ countries

SAE levels are a pathetic failure because they don't standardize the needed quality and how to confirm the quality.

I didn't bring up SAE levels, you did. Maybe Japanese people are willing to tolerate AVs being much less safe than human drivers? Shouldn't that be up to them? Why should the SAE dictate how safe AVs should be?

 

[EVNow]

I didn't bring up SAE levels, you did. Maybe Japanese people are willing to tolerate AVs being much less safe than human drivers? Shouldn't that be up to them? Why should the SAE dictate how safe AVs should be?

"Japanese people" are much more discerning about quality than the average American. So, lets leave it there.

But I guess they don't have the same kind of legal structure that allows juries to award 100s of millions of dollars per offence.

 

[EVNow]

Great video by Brad Templeton on why Tesla should use HD maps.

LOL.

What is really crazy are the assumptions he makes. Lets look at this one in particular.

Yes - thats right, Brad is so out of touch with the real world he thinks "out of date maps are rare".

You can see the TomTom maps thread I opened to talk about some of the mapping issues I found not far from my home in my sig.

Let me just explain this
- I do not live in the sticks but in a city just miles from Microsoft HQ. Its a city that is within top 5 when it comes to per capita income in WA.
- When I started having peculiar issues with FSD I (with the help of several on this board) started investigating and figured out that maps were outdated
- So how many issues did I find ? More than 20 issues within 2 miles of my home !! Not just that - these are roads I take regularly and would have never known had issues but for FSD. These are not roads I went out of way to find issues in - just regular roads near my home. Infact atleast half the roads I regularly use have some kind of problem.
- Just yesterday I went on a road I don't use often and found 4 round abouts that were missing in the map
- Some parts of the map have not been updated for over a decade when my neighborhood was built !!!!
- I've got more than 2 dozen updates done to TomTom maps near my home.
- Ironically, Bing uses TomTom maps. Half the Bing team lives my my city

I guess, Brad's assumption shows what happens when you live in the self-driving industry capital of the world. The maps near your home are always updated quickly ! Never mind 99.999999% of rest of the world.

When I worked in Microsoft we used to have a map that showed half the world covered by Redmond, WA. As we went further geographically the area became small. Huge countries were just a speck of the dust. Showed how easy it was to be "Redmond" centric. Brad (and other AV industry vets) need that kind of a map about the silicon valley.

"Out of date maps are rare" .... my ***.

 

[Bladerskb]

Yes - thats right, Brad is so out of touch with the real world he thinks "out of date maps are rare". You can see the TomTom maps thread I opened to talk about some of the mapping issues I found not far from my home in my sig. Let me just explain this
- I do not live in the sticks but in a city just miles from Microsoft HQ. Its a city that is within top 5 when it comes to per capita income in WA.
- When I started having peculiar issues with FSD I (with the help of several on this board) started investigating and figured out that maps were outdated
- So how many issues did I find ? More than 20 issues within 2 miles of my home !! Not just that - these are roads I take regularly and would have never known had issues but for FSD. These are not roads I went out of way to find issues in - just regular roads near my home. Infact atleast half the roads I regularly use have some kind of problem.
- Just yesterday I went on a road I don't use often and found 4 round abouts that were missing in the map
- Some parts of the map have not been updated for over a decade when my neighborhood was built !!!!
- I've got more than 2 dozen updates done to TomTom maps near my home.
- Ironically, Bing uses TomTom maps. Half the Bing team lives my my city

I guess, Brad's assumption shows what happens when you live in the self-driving industry capital of the world. The maps near your home are always updated quickly ! Never mind 99.999999% of rest of the world.

When I worked in Microsoft we used to have a map that showed half the world covered by Redmond, WA. As we went further geographically the area became small. Huge countries were just a speck of the dust. Showed how easy it was to be "Redmond" centric. Brad (and other AV industry vets) need that kind of a map about the silicon valley.

"Out of date maps are rare" .... my ***.

Tom Tom's map is not a AV HD map...
You are actually proving the AV industry right about HD maps. You are proving that using some off-the shelf map and combining it with your internal map with undisclosed level of detail just to avoid "using" HD map is a hilariously horrific approach.