The original statement I questioned was that driving 80 mph with an external ambient temperature of -15f would improve efficiency over driving 40 mph at -15f. It may warm the battery faster but I'm willing to lay some money down says the Wh/mi go way up. I've seen those numbers as can anyone else.
I did some work a while back to fit some data I gathered with my car at a few speeds. Lots of variables and not too scientific so would not wager too much on it, but here it is:
A Primitive Model
This gives a 0.035 coefficient for aero. I actually think that’s a bit high since it seems that at 80mph 300Wh/mi is about what an AWD gets. Not 330Wh/mi. 0.03 works better.
Using that 7kW number for max heating (I think with AC it may be possible to get to 9kW though...it is possible to measure, but I don’t have a full 11.5kW charger (only 9.6kW) so I can’t check this).
So, I converted the formula to Wh/mi and added 9kW base load to the ~350W normal base load:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Plot+9350%2Fx+%2B+101.494+%2B+0.0300833+x%5E2+with+x+from+10+to+80
You can see the efficiency rapidly improves as speeds increase (gets lower) before starting to get worse again, but only gets worse gradually from there. It’s only modestly higher at 80mph vs. 40mph (by about 20-30Wh/mi). Optimal speed is around 55mph.
Compare to the original curve with no big base load:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Plot+350%2Fx+%2B+101.494+%2B+0.0300833+x%5E2+with+x+from+10+to+80
No heater:
Optimal speed is around 20mph. 80mph is a lot worse than 40mph of course, by about 140Wh/mi - there is nothing to counterbalance to the extra aero loss in this case.
So putting some actual numbers to it, you’re almost certainly right that 40mph is still more efficient than 80mph even in these very cold conditions. But 40mph is about the same as 70mph.
So I’ll retract my original statement and rather than say “80mph may be more efficient than 40mph,” I will say:
...that efficiency will improve under these conditions the faster you go, up to about 55mph.
I could also say (clearly correctly) that 80mph is very likely more efficient than 20mph, under these conditions (see the plot)! I guess where I was wrong is that at 40mph, you’ve already really got most of the benefit to moving right along, as far as the static load goes. Somewhat diminishing returns at that point to going faster. Looks like I would have been barely right if I had said 80mph is more efficient than 30mph (they are similar).