Just curious-----how long are the batteries really expected to last? I read a few years back when we bought our 2017 S and 2018 3 that they were expected to last 8-10 years, but nobody really new because the cars hadn't been round that long. And some were saying 10 to 20 years wasn't out of the question. Have many of the early buyers had to replace their batteries? And what does it cost to replace the batteries with a new one? Thanks.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
battery life
- Thread starter red2017s
- Start date
I have an answer for you and you probably won’t like it. Most batteries will survive 10-15 years before replacement. However some will fail within 3 years and even sooner. Tesla has not shared the failure rate because ? Well because they don’t want to share all of their data apparently. I’ve heard they made the batteries “better” in 2016 chemistry wise but who knows how this has translated in the real world? Only Tesla knows for sure. I think the failure rate inside of warranty 8 years is like 10ish %. A high mileage car out of its warranty is true Russian roulette. It’s not just the battery cells that fail it’s the components around the battery that can fail. Oh and Tesla has reportedly not been willing to trouble shoot a pack other than swap it with a new or refurbished pack. Low mileage out of warranty issues happen as well. There have been moisture issues etc well documented on these threads. The bottom line is if you don’t have 12k+ laying around for a replacement don’t consider an out of warranty car. There is no guarantee you will or won’t need a very pricey replacement
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
That is an absurdly high estimate that from what I can see has no bearing in observable reality and implies they have replaced hundreds of thousands of batteries under warranty.
I would estimate the actual number is far closer to 1% than 10.
For what it’s worth I put nearly 200k miles on my 2016 S. Battery was fine when I sold it, had degraded about 12% from new.
zoomer0056
Active Member
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
This is from the last Tesla presentation. Sure it shows miles (not time) and it does not show a rate of total battery failures (there are some).
Then there is also Troy's owners statistics, you need to google the URL as my URL does not work without my login. But it is a similar chart like above.
Earlier pre 2016 model S has a design issue that is prone to water intrusion that led to premature battery replacement, after that it is quite reliable. There is not enough data on calendar aged death but there are many high mileage S out there.
There are various battery replacement options - from another pack, different pack from recell, remanufacture, brand new pack (may not be available) from Tesla, 10-20k, with much shorter warranty and unlikely to last as long as the original pack except for new pack , basing on the resell value of an out of warranty EV, whether it is worth to spend that amount of money is a different question. I have a 2017 MS but I do not drive that much since the pandemic and only has 65K, I may as well keep it after next year or get an extended warranty that also covers the battery since it has FUSC and FSD.
sublimejackman
Member
This article is from 2018. A company called Tesloop (not sure if they're still around) would make roundtrips from Santa Monica to Las Vegas twice a day. I remember seeing them all the time at the Culver, CA SC. After three years one of their vehicles hit over 300k miles on its original battery with ~90% capacity remaining, the vast majority of them supercharging miles.
I've also spoken to a few people at SCs with 2013-2016 Model S recently that have gone well past 250k miles over the course of 10 years. That's all anecdotal and until Lord-Daddy Elon decides to bless us with hard data, this will all remain anecdotal.
Me personally, I currently have a nearly 7yo Model S ~50k miles and still has ~92% capacity remaining. I would bet that if you get a "good" pack, that clears the first half of the bathtub curve and you consistently give the battery plenty of TLC; 500k miles and 12 years probably isn't unreasonable. Which I think is about the most you can really expect out of any car.
electrek.co
I've also spoken to a few people at SCs with 2013-2016 Model S recently that have gone well past 250k miles over the course of 10 years. That's all anecdotal and until Lord-Daddy Elon decides to bless us with hard data, this will all remain anecdotal.
Me personally, I currently have a nearly 7yo Model S ~50k miles and still has ~92% capacity remaining. I would bet that if you get a "good" pack, that clears the first half of the bathtub curve and you consistently give the battery plenty of TLC; 500k miles and 12 years probably isn't unreasonable. Which I think is about the most you can really expect out of any car.
Here's how a Tesla Model S holds up after 400,000 miles in 3 years
Tesla’s vehicles are becoming increasingly popular with taxi and shuttle services, which are pushing their vehicles a lot over short periods...
electrek.co
But I used to have a low mileage s I was horrified of failing. For every low milleage failure there seems to be a dude at 170k on the og battery. One thing that hasn’t been solved is total life of the battery. At what year mark regardless of cycles does the battery just spiral? 9? 10? 11? 12?This article is from 2018. A company called Tesloop (not sure if they're still around) would make roundtrips from Santa Monica to Las Vegas twice a day. I remember seeing them all the time at the Culver, CA SC. After three years one of their vehicles hit over 300k miles on its original battery with ~90% capacity remaining, the vast majority of them supercharging miles.
I've also spoken to a few people at SCs with 2013-2016 Model S recently that have gone well past 250k miles over the course of 10 years. That's all anecdotal and until Lord-Daddy Elon decides to bless us with hard data, this will all remain anecdotal.
Me personally, I currently have a nearly 7yo Model S ~50k miles and still has ~92% capacity remaining. I would bet that if you get a "good" pack, that clears the first half of the bathtub curve and you consistently give the battery plenty of TLC; 500k miles and 12 years probably isn't unreasonable. Which I think is about the most you can really expect out of any car.
Here's how a Tesla Model S holds up after 400,000 miles in 3 years
Tesla’s vehicles are becoming increasingly popular with taxi and shuttle services, which are pushing their vehicles a lot over short periods...
Here they state a Tesloop battery replacement in 194k miles 324k miles: Tales from a Tesla Model S with 450,000 miles: Battery life, durability, and more -> Tesla Model S 90D & Model X 90D Maintenance Record
Source?
For batteries before about 2017, there was indeed issues. Tesla has replaced a lot of them. But since them, replacement rates are very low.
This.
It happened to me. My 2019 100D had a pack failure right around the 4yr/75k mile mark but the cells themselves were fine. Tesla replaced the entire pack. You can read my story here if interested:
My First Breakdown
Edited to add car details: 2019 S100D 75k miles Battery ~3% degradation from new -- So I was taking a road trip today (around a 2.5 hour drive). Started with a full charge (328 miles of range @ 100%). I was about an hour and a half into the drive on the highway doing around 75mph when the...
teslamotorsclub.com
That being said, it's honestly still too early to tell how the packs will hold up. The oldest Model S cars are first hitting 12 years old at this point. I am sure some are on the original packs but others are on their second (or third) pack. Some of this could be chalked up to design flaws in the older packs but there are cell failures for sure as well. Age, mileage, and usage habits all play a role in how fast a pack wears.
What hasn't happened yet is economies of scale driving down the cost of a replacement pack to a point where it is a "no-brainer". It's happening for sure - just taking some time. A few years ago, a replacement pack would be over $20k. Now they are around $12k.
Yeah but this dude on this thread claims 10% is way too high for in warranty packs . I say it might be low. This is a closely guarded trade secret by Tesla OBVIOUSLY they aren’t gonna announce this or talk about it. I’ll stick to my 10% or higher of Tesla cars in warranty have their battery replaced under warranty. I’ve seen y’s get 2 packs at 40k (pathetic by the way)This.
It happened to me. My 2019 100D had a pack failure right around the 4yr/75k mile mark but the cells themselves were fine. Tesla replaced the entire pack. You can read my story here if interested:
My First Breakdown
Edited to add car details: 2019 S100D 75k miles Battery ~3% degradation from new -- So I was taking a road trip today (around a 2.5 hour drive). Started with a full charge (328 miles of range @ 100%). I was about an hour and a half into the drive on the highway doing around 75mph when the...
That being said, it's honestly still too early to tell how the packs will hold up. The oldest Model S cars are first hitting 12 years old at this point. I am sure some are on the original packs but others are on their second (or third) pack. Some of this could be chalked up to design flaws in the older packs but there are cell failures for sure as well. Age, mileage, and usage habits all play a role in how fast a pack wears.
What hasn't happened yet is economies of scale driving down the cost of a replacement pack to a point where it is a "no-brainer". It's happening for sure - just taking some time. A few years ago, a replacement pack would be over $20k. Now they are around $12k.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
There is no version of reality where Tesla has replaced literally hundreds of thousands of batteries under warranty and the ownership community doesn’t know about it. If you truly think that 10% or more of the fleet will need a battery replacement within the warranty period, you’re in a fever-dream. It is observably, demonstrably wrong.
Last edited:
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Some actual data: observed battery failure rate for cars produced 2015 and later across a 20,000 vehicle dataset: 1.5%.
