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Best Guess on when delivery time for a Model Y will fall to 6-9 weeks?
- Thread starter ndstreet
- Start date
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
I remember about this "S" curb which lasted at least 3 months until reaching about 3k cars a week.
If I'm reading a couple of articles right, the Model 3 started dribbling out in Fall 2017, dropping to a 6 month wait by Fall 2018 and a 2 week wait by Spring 2019. Now it seems to be back up to 6-9 weeks. I'm assuming that there was more demand and deposits for the 3 than there will be for the Y (which could be wrong), and that they will gear up production run rate faster for the Y than they did the 3 (which is probably right and should offset even if there is more demand). So I'm thinking if they start dribbling out the Y in late March, by 9 months later, they should have burned through the deposits and be taking new orders fairly quickly?
Thinking about some numbers, I've seen info that said 400k Model 3 deposits of which a fair portion cancel or don't follow through. Assuming Y is about 50-75% of 3 deposits and about 20% bail on their place in line, and they start cranking out in anything close to the 500k they said in earnings call by end of year, a fair portion of that 500k should be Ys, so if they are making 125k total cars per quarter, maybe 40k of them going forward are Ys? With maybe 100k Ys made by year end as they ramp up? So by year end, they should be burning through end of deposits and start taking orders for 2021 early delivery?
Thanks for any thoughts.
Thinking about some numbers, I've seen info that said 400k Model 3 deposits of which a fair portion cancel or don't follow through. Assuming Y is about 50-75% of 3 deposits and about 20% bail on their place in line, and they start cranking out in anything close to the 500k they said in earnings call by end of year, a fair portion of that 500k should be Ys, so if they are making 125k total cars per quarter, maybe 40k of them going forward are Ys? With maybe 100k Ys made by year end as they ramp up? So by year end, they should be burning through end of deposits and start taking orders for 2021 early delivery?
Thanks for any thoughts.
Aarons12
Enjoying my Pearl White LR AWD with inductions
my main thought is i hope you are wrong
. my lease expires in June. but i have a bmw 840 in the garage all the time, so worst case is i drive that for a couple of months...
kirby
Member
Unclear about 315 miles. Will it apply to the long range rear wheel drive as well, or only the proformance model.?
Bikeman
Member
Should be both. More of that will depend on which wheels you'll have on the car (the bigger, the less range, usually). And how you drive it.
The Model Y Long Range rear wheel no longer exits. All Wheel drive is your only option. (As it should have always been).
Until the other Gigafactories are up and running and producing Model Ys production will be constrained. Likely demand for the 3 will drop dramatically, so Fremont can switch to building more Y. But even with relatively lower demand Model 3 they only have the capacity to build by region. That is first month of quarter, they build mostly for EU and Asia because of shipping times, and 3rd month of quarter mostly for North America. I don't see this changing until the additional GigaFactories are full up to speed.
