Sure enough, <900 per week now.Yes, they are guessing too, but they Guess based on a lot more data than we see. These changes make sense. I expect that they will adjust down again unless we see new VINs registered above the current 11,348 number.
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Sure enough, <900 per week now.Yes, they are guessing too, but they Guess based on a lot more data than we see. These changes make sense. I expect that they will adjust down again unless we see new VINs registered above the current 11,348 number.
0 to volume is very difficult. I do not see a miracle coming. Tesla will most likely exit Q1 around 1000 per week and spin it to a higher number for the Q1 report, just before the push out all the delivery estimates again.Nah, I've seen lines go from high volume to 0, so 0 to volume is not unreasonable, just need a line that can do it, and enough parts to feed the line.
And now from 599 to 2500 in less than 4 weeks. I think I'm getting 20-20 vision on my delivery date. It's 2020.It will be really hard to ramp up from 925 to 2500 (270%) in less than 5 weeks. I see another quarterly delay for the SR folks amongst us.
The Bloomberg Model is highly unreliable. For one, they estimate production totals based on VIN registrations (“method 1”) which is squishy. They are also adjusting down from fishy estimates from when they first put it online.The 599 is very disheartening unless the reason for the slowdown has to do with the new equipment arrived from Tesla Grohmann and they are down while it's being installed in Reno. If so, then production should ramp up quickly shortly thereafter - if not, then we will likely hear another announcement on delayed production.
When did the Grohmann equipment arrive? Do you have a link? InterestingThe 599 is very disheartening unless the reason for the slowdown has to do with the new equipment arrived from Tesla Grohmann and they are down while it's being installed in Reno. If so, then production should ramp up quickly shortly thereafter - if not, then we will likely hear another announcement on delayed production.
Grohmann line is no where near ready. Battery production will get above 2000 in a month, not sure about car production rate though.
Is this purely speculation or is there a source to base this on?
I want to agree but the assignment have not historically be strictly sequential.The Bloomberg tracker appears to be slightly off. They estimate that 9039 have been produced as of today. However, people are reporting that they do not get VINs assigned until after production of the vehicle. We are hearing reports of VINs in the 94XX range. That means that the tracker is about 400 cars behind. And at the tracker's current rate of 599, that is over 4 days behind.
This is not a battery issue alone. This is a issue with the entire supply chain. when they solve one problem, they will never shoot up drastically in volume. They will only go up to where the next problem comes to the surface. Progress will be in little steps.
Or a small step.Depends on what the differential volume between bottlenecks is. It could be a large step.
Yes, Absolutely there will be push backs. The good news is that Tesla will hit the 200,000 delivery to the USA later than expected.I suppose one question that many of us still waiting for an invite to configure have is ‘are the delays in ramping up production to the forecasted/publicized velocity enough that there will be another push back on the delivery estimates in our accounts?’ Given that we really don’t know how Tesla determined their estimated delivery windows for us, it seems as though we will just have to wait and see (and hope for the best).