Brexit

[Mader Levap]

 

[EVNow]

The only redeeming feature of leaving the EU is the possibility (or illusion) of actually doing deals with the rest of the world whilst holding onto much of the current EU trade. Customs union stops other deals.

I've never understood the logic. Since EU is a bigger market, who would give a better deal to UK & why ?

Yes, may be to sell worse products (lower grade, not meeting EU spec). Or deals with undesirable regimes. Is that really a better deal ?

 

[Singer3000]

I've never understood the logic. Since EU is a bigger market, who would give a better deal to UK & why ?

Yes, may be to sell worse products (lower grade, not meeting EU spec). Or deals with undesirable regimes. Is that really a better deal ?

The EU is highly protectionist to certain key industries, most notably steel, agriculture, vinoculture and auto production that are of less importance to the UK as a producing economy. On the other hand it doesn’t bother trying too hard to negotiate as aggressively on services as the UK might do so as a stand-alone negotiator.

The UK economy hence gets whacked twice. First because the UK’s service orientated export industries don’t get the full benefit from freer trade with the rest of world. And second because the UK consumer pays higher taxes on imports of goods where it has a comparative disadvantage. For example Tesla Model 3s (10% tariff) and agri produce from the Commonwealth.

There are (almost) zero redeeming features to Corbyn’s customs union proposal from an economic, trade and diplomatic perspective. The Labour Party is trying to push the UK in this direction because they know it’s a great way of causing short term political chaos. Your hero Mr Corbyn has been presented by a chaotic PM with the chance to look like a statesman and he is blowing it.

 

[EVNow]

The EU is highly protectionist to certain key industries, most notably steel, agriculture, vinoculture and auto production that are of less importance to the UK as a producing economy. On the other hand it doesn’t bother trying too hard to negotiate as aggressively on services as the UK might do so as a stand-alone negotiator.

The UK economy hence gets whacked twice. First because the UK’s service orientated export industries don’t get the full benefit from freer trade with the rest of world. And second because the UK consumer pays higher taxes on imports of goods where it has a comparative disadvantage. For example Tesla Model 3s (10% tariff) and agri produce from the Commonwealth.

There are (almost) zero redeeming features to Corbyn’s customs union proposal from an economic, trade and diplomatic perspective. The Labour Party is trying to push the UK in this direction because they know it’s a great way of causing short term political chaos. Your hero Mr Corbyn has been presented by a chaotic PM with the chance to look like a statesman and he is blowing it.

But how correct is the assumption that countries would even care to negotiate with UK ? Hardly anyone is enamored by the financial industry "services" to offer sweet deals for it. Just take India for eg - why would India offer sweet deal on services industry to UK compared to EU ? In other words - what does UK have that would be valuable and difficult to get for other countries ?

One thing UK as that come developing countries may want is nuclear tech. But even outside UK, obviously UK can't offer that.

Yes, UK can reduce tariffs on certain imports and help the consumers. But in terms of domestic industries, I don't see them getting better deals - but you will see a lot of companies move from UK to EU. My own company is expanding in Ireland and reducing in UK. In future no company expanding to Europe would consider setting up their regional HQ in UK.

A permanent CU will stop the bleeding.

 

[Singer3000]

But how correct is the assumption that countries would even care to negotiate with UK ? Hardly anyone is enamored by the financial industry "services" to offer sweet deals for it. Just take India for eg - why would India offer sweet deal on services industry to UK compared to EU ? In other words - what does UK have that would be valuable and difficult to get for other countries ?

One thing UK as that come developing countries may want is nuclear tech. But even outside UK, obviously UK can't offer that.

Yes, UK can reduce tariffs on certain imports and help the consumers. But in terms of domestic industries, I don't see them getting better deals - but you will see a lot of companies move from UK to EU. My own company is expanding in Ireland and reducing in UK. In future no company expanding to Europe would consider setting up their regional HQ in UK.

A permanent CU will stop the bleeding.

India is perhaps the most protectionist of the world’s major democracies and any meaningful deal there is unlikely.

There’s been a trickle of jobs from the Uk to Amsterdam, Dublin etc... but barely perceptible versus the dynamic job growth the UK has achieved even since the 2016 referendum. The predictions of tens of thousands of finance jobs relocating have proven to be scare stories.

I can’t be bothered to do your homework for you but if you search you’ll see any number of global companies committing billions of pounds to new premises and job creation in the Uk in the last two years. There is no bleeding and this has been during a period where no one expected a customs union to be in place.

Actually it’s Corbyn’s proposed customs union that most threatens Uk jobs, as any global company committing to the country would not know if they would be undercut by what might be an asymmetrical tariffs/quota arrangement for their product. It’s likely the Uk would have no veto, vote or even voice in the cutting of future Free Trade Agrements, and crucially it would not automatically benefit from them despite having to accept imports the other way on the new terms. When this point becomes widely understood, I expect Corbyn’s support in the industrial north will crater.

 

[EVNow]

So it seems that the middle ground is gaining traction. No deal less likely plus referendum leading to no Brexit. My odds:

No deal - 15%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 10%
Teresa May deal (increased likelihood with backstop change) - 50%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 15%
Remain following referendum - 10%

So, we now have a flextension till Oct 31st.

That would be 25% from the above odds.

Currently Betfair gives
Brexit happens first : 21% (3.25)
May leaves office first : 79% (1.61)

No deal Brexit in 2019 : 2%

Second referendum : 21%

General Election / Brexit first : 45% / 55%

 

[EVNow]

India is perhaps the most protectionist of the world’s major democracies

Hmmm … must be the reason till recently we couldn't get Indian mangoes in the US but could get Washington apples in India

Anyway looks like you are living in a fantasy of your own. Remember a "no deal" hasn't happened. Think about it - why would anyone invest in UK if there is no clear, permanent deal with EU ?

UK car production has slumped 15% in a year

 

[Buckminster]

31st Oct deadline - doesn't change much, except, will parliament force May out? They regret not doing so previously, this gives them time.

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 10%
Hard Brexit - 10%
Theresa May deal or similar - 55%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 15%
Remain following referendum - 10%

 

[AudubonB]

<Starry-Eyed Possibilism Warning>
In my catching up on today's Big Thread, right now am at the point where the posts are populated by a fair number wondering how EU ever will be able to attract GF4 - a variety of reasons as to why not dominate; no one is giving cogent reasons as to how it could occur.

So: Do any here steeped in and knowledgeable of today's UK socioeconomic situation think there might be a ghost of a chance that, in order that the nation bootstrap its way up from the economic debacle that I believe 99.9X% think will befall UK post Brexit, it creates something like a Special Economic Zone for and only for a Europe-destined GF4?

It would have to encompass inter alia red-tape vaporizations; labor law relaxations; import/export rule-bendings; labor & capital melding of a scale not seen since 1940-45 - let your imaginations run rampant.

??????

/Starry Eyes

 

[Buckminster]

<Starry-Eyed Possibilism Warning>
In my catching up on today's Big Thread, right now am at the point where the posts are populated by a fair number wondering how EU ever will be able to attract GF4 - a variety of reasons as to why not dominate; no one is giving cogent reasons as to how it could occur.

So: Do any here steeped in and knowledgeable of today's UK socioeconomic situation think there might be a ghost of a chance that, in order that the nation bootstrap its way up from the economic debacle that I believe 99.9X% think will befall UK post Brexit, it creates something like a Special Economic Zone for and only for a Europe-destined GF4?

It would have to encompass inter alia red-tape vaporizations; labor law relaxations; import/export rule-bendings; labor & capital melding of a scale not seen since 1940-45 - let your imaginations run rampant.

??????

/Starry Eyes

Have you been watching parliament debate Brexit? They are unlikely to mention Elon's name for years (not really out of spite either). One of the many reasons that I voted to remain is that outside the city of London, we are no longer entrepreneurs. We have the opportunities but we won't grasp the nettle.
I vote for GF4 to be in Turin. They need an economic boost and I always wanted an Italian sports car!

 

[EVNow]

One of the many reasons that I voted to remain is that outside the city of London, we are no longer entrepreneurs.

That's because they don't have the skills needed to be successful in the globalized world. People in London (and US west coast, NY etc) have made a lot of money at the expense of such places. Just see yellow vest protests - if the fruits & pains are not equally shared, people who only get pain don't care for your fruits.

 

[YoungStranger]

<Starry-Eyed Possibilism Warning>
In my catching up on today's Big Thread, right now am at the point where the posts are populated by a fair number wondering how EU ever will be able to attract GF4 - a variety of reasons as to why not dominate; no one is giving cogent reasons as to how it could occur.

So: Do any here steeped in and knowledgeable of today's UK socioeconomic situation think there might be a ghost of a chance that, in order that the nation bootstrap its way up from the economic debacle that I believe 99.9X% think will befall UK post Brexit, it creates something like a Special Economic Zone for and only for a Europe-destined GF4?

It would have to encompass inter alia red-tape vaporizations; labor law relaxations; import/export rule-bendings; labor & capital melding of a scale not seen since 1940-45 - let your imaginations run rampant.

??????

/Starry Eyes

Well that’s the Brexit Fantasy in a nutshell... why would ANY company worldwide invest in Brexit U.K., except for domestic market?

Brexit is sold as Patriotism... but it’s not. Citizens of the U.K. don’t gain a single thing, just lose a bunch of rights and freedoms that they take for granted. No Brexit Politician or alt Right Mini Trump has been able to describe one immediate tangible benefit for individuals from Brexit...

 

[neroden]

Well that’s the Brexit Fantasy in a nutshell... why would ANY company worldwide invest in Brexit U.K., except for domestic market?

Brexit is sold as Patriotism... but it’s not. Citizens of the U.K. don’t gain a single thing, just lose a bunch of rights and freedoms that they take for granted. No Brexit Politician or alt Right Mini Trump has been able to describe one immediate tangible benefit for individuals from Brexit...

If you listen carefully to the real extremist right-wingers, they say that Brexit will allow them to exit the European Court of Human Rights (though that's actually a separate treaty), repeal the Human Rights Act, and start abusing gay people, women, children, ethnic minorities, etc. That's their idea of tangible benefit. :-(

 

[EVNow]

Well that’s the Brexit Fantasy in a nutshell... why would ANY company worldwide invest in Brexit U.K., except for domestic market?

Brexit is sold as Patriotism... but it’s not. Citizens of the U.K. don’t gain a single thing, just lose a bunch of rights and freedoms that they take for granted. No Brexit Politician or alt Right Mini Trump has been able to describe one immediate tangible benefit for individuals from Brexit...

Well, there is a reason Nigel Farage and Steve Bannon are friends.

Brexitshambles on Twitter

 

[Singer3000]

If you listen carefully to the real extremist right-wingers, they say that Brexit will allow them to exit the European Court of Human Rights (though that's actually a separate treaty), repeal the Human Rights Act, and start abusing gay people, women, children, ethnic minorities, etc. That's their idea of tangible benefit. :-(

Just wow. There are some that have argued for the repeal of the ECHR acts to be replaced with a British bill of rights. If you really think that they have done so because they are racist, homophobic child abusers then it's clear you are not thinking clearly on this topic. By the way, although they are separate treaties, it is a requirement under EU law to be a signatory of the ECHR.

 

[nwdiver]

Just wow. There are some that have argued for the repeal of the ECHR acts to be replaced with a British bill of rights. If you really think that they have done so because they are racist, homophobic child abusers then it's clear you are not thinking clearly on this topic. By the way, although they are separate treaties, it is a requirement under EU law to be a signatory of the ECHR.

Brexit is as much about 'British sovereignty' as the American Civil War was about 'States Rights'....

 

[Singer3000]

Well that’s the Brexit Fantasy in a nutshell... why would ANY company worldwide invest in Brexit U.K., except for domestic market?

There's plenty of reasons why many global companies across a broad spectrum of industrial activities HAVE ALREADY BEEN announcing new investments in the UK for global markets and continue to do so. For example, Softbank, Mubadala, Bloomberg, Google, HSBC, CIC, Eutelsat, Boeing, Starbucks, TALGO, the wider Fintech industry... I could go on.

Given the pre-referendum warnings of tens of thousands of City jobs being relocated to Europe, this may be of interest:

You ignore these sorts of headlines because it does not fit with your existing view. Whether significantly fewer such investments have been announced compared with an alternate universe where Remain won, is very hard if not impossible to say.

Brexit is sold as Patriotism... but it’s not. Citizens of the U.K. don’t gain a single thing, just lose a bunch of rights and freedoms that they take for granted. No Brexit Politician or alt Right Mini Trump has been able to describe one immediate tangible benefit for individuals from Brexit...

Leaving the EU is a trade-off between the forfeiting of certain rights (e.g. the inviolable freedom to live and work in any other EU state, the right to sell on a level playing across the whole Single Market) in order to gain others (e.g. regaining the supremacy of Parliament in law-making, sovereignty over migration policy, a more specifically tailored trade policy).

This trade-off is the very nature of international co-operation and supranational decision making. It is fine that your assessment is that the rights and freedoms gained do not offset those lost. It is less fine that you appear to think that anyone who reaches a different conclusion to you is automatically alt-right and presumably less enlightened than you (I assume you use the term mini-Trump as an insult).

 

[Singer3000]

<Starry-Eyed Possibilism Warning>
In my catching up on today's Big Thread, right now am at the point where the posts are populated by a fair number wondering how EU ever will be able to attract GF4 - a variety of reasons as to why not dominate; no one is giving cogent reasons as to how it could occur.

So: Do any here steeped in and knowledgeable of today's UK socioeconomic situation think there might be a ghost of a chance that, in order that the nation bootstrap its way up from the economic debacle that I believe 99.9X% think will befall UK post Brexit, it creates something like a Special Economic Zone for and only for a Europe-destined GF4?

It would have to encompass inter alia red-tape vaporizations; labor law relaxations; import/export rule-bendings; labor & capital melding of a scale not seen since 1940-45 - let your imaginations run rampant.

??????

/Starry Eyes

Should Brexit ever actually occur, the UK would if anything end up with looser labour laws than the EU-27 (it's already far less unionised than most of mainland Europe). If your question is whether the UK and EU would agree to special rules on customs processes for a Tesla plant, the answer is no. In terms of red tape, it's tremendously difficult to build in the UK. This problem has a bit but not much to do with EU membership. Whether Brexit leads to a more pro-enterprise government or the total opposite, is currently all to play for. Do I think Tesla will build GF4 in the UK? No I don't.

I cannot let your statement that "99.9X% think that Brexit would be an economic debacle" go un-remarked. For example, there are many who would counter that the EU is itself fast headed in the direction of "economic debacle", so renouncing membership and re-balancing exports and diplomatic energy elsewhere is a sensible way of protecting long term economic stability. Agree or disagree but try to understand that your view is not universally accepted, very far from it in fact.

 

[Singer3000]

Brexit is as much about 'British sovereignty' as the American Civil War was about 'States Rights'....

So says @nwdiver, who has the magical ability to divine the motivations of millions of people who he has never met.

 

[nwdiver]

So says @nwdiver, who has the magical ability to divine the motivations of millions of people who he has never met.

LOL; Are the causes of the American Civil War equally 'mysterious'?