Brexit

[KarenRei]

On a more serious note, I have trouble seeing how the Tories don't end up with a majority without a Labour / Lib Dem alliance or a huge polling shift. Polling wise, Conservative + Brexit + UKIP is only 47% - but seats-wise, they're currently forecast at a blowout due to weakness in Labour and the nonlinear way in which seats are assigned.

I'm using this for forecasts:
Electoral Calculus

Maybe polling will change now that "Dead in a Ditch Day" has come and gone - I don't know.

 

[Jetex Jim]

There's some hope that Trump's endorsement of Farage may backfire. I think Trump is way less popular in the UK than he thinks he is. Yet his ego persuaded him to intervene.

Farage will see an opportunity for a little power. A lot of what follows depends on what fragments of decency remain within Britain's Conservatives... Will they reject overture s from the Brexit party or not?

That said, if the Conservatives don't go for an alliance with the Brexit Party I think they've had it.

 

[EVNow]

On a more serious note, I have trouble seeing how the Tories don't end up with a majority without a Labour / Lib Dem alliance or a huge polling shift. Polling wise, Conservative + Brexit + UKIP is only 47% - but seats-wise, they're currently forecast at a blowout due to weakness in Labour and the nonlinear way in which seats are assigned.

I'm using this for forecasts:
Electoral Calculus

Maybe polling will change now that "Dead in a Ditch Day" has come and gone - I don't know.

Its difficult to say - but by campaigning on domestic issues in the last election Labor came back to nearly win the election.

 

[Buckminster]

My last update in the 19th Oct:

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 5%
Hard Brexit (Canada or similar) - 0%
Theresa May deal with/without alterations (including removal of backstop) - 90%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 0%
Remain following referendum - 5%

50% chance of leaving 31st Oct.

A lot has changed in 2 weeks - the odds have tightened IMO:

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):

No deal - 1% (Boris has ruled out)
Hard Brexit (Canada or similar) - 0%
Theresa May deal with/without alterations (including removal of backstop) - 96% (Boris deal)
Norway/Soft Brexit - 0%
Remain following referendum - 3%

95% chance of leaving 31st Jan or earlier.

My expectation is that Brexit party will get zero seats. Brexiteers are not so daft as it shoot themselves in the foot quite so obviously. Brexit is shooting yourself in the foot but you can blame the details on others.

Lib Dems will do well. Jo Swinson - leader of the opposition??

Labour will fall off a cliff - Corbyn has promised to resign. Presumably John McDonnell will get the reins and keep the party to the far left.

SNP will do a little better than today. This could be the most interesting aspect of the election. I don't believe the Scots will want to leave the UK that has already left. Scexit will make Brexit look like a walk in the park.

Tories will get a significant majority. I hope and expect Boris will move back to the centre ground. However, it will not look like that to the centre folk who won't trust Boris for a long time. They will just have grudging respect for the things he is doing. Things like doing trade deals with other countries that the EU will advise will harm EU trade. 31st Jan is definitely not the end of the saga.

If this all plays out like above, the EU will have played this poorly. A little more flexibility at every stage and we would have been 100% inside their walls. I said this last year:

Still unsure why the EU won't throw her a bone. The brits could make this a whole lot worse for themselves and the EU without a cap to backstop.

 

[Jetex Jim]

[08:38, 11/2/2019] Me: So, will Boris finally agree to a deal with Farage? (I think that he'll eventually be persuaded to do so)
[08:43, 11/2/2019] My son: Of course he will
[08:43, 11/2/2019] My son: Then we will have 4 years of Farage doing a DUP
[08:45, 11/2/2019] Me: If he doesn't do a deal the Tories are f*cked if he does do a deal the UK is f*cked.

 

[EVNow]

If this all plays out like above, the EU will have played this poorly. A little more flexibility at every stage and we would have been 100% inside their walls. I said this last year:

Why ? Johnson deal is better for EU than May's.

My expectation is that Brexit party will get zero seats. Brexiteers are not so daft as it shoot themselves in the foot quite so obviously. Brexit is shooting yourself in the foot but you can blame the details on others.

Lib Dems will do well. Jo Swinson - leader of the opposition??

Labour will fall off a cliff - Corbyn has promised to resign. Presumably John McDonnell will get the reins and keep the party to the far left.

If these follow your earlier predictions, I expect the opposite

ps : Labor is going to basically fight on domestic issues. Particularly by arguing Boris Johnson is going to sell of NHS to Trump/US companies.

Jeremy Corbyn on Twitter

Boris Johnson has just twice refused to rule out even more privatisation of our NHS. Under Labour, the NHS will not be for sale.​

 

[Buckminster]

Why ? Johnson deal is better for EU than May's.


If these follow your earlier predictions, I expect the opposite

ps : Labor is going to basically fight on domestic issues. Particularly by arguing Boris Johnson is going to sell of NHS to Trump/US companies.

Jeremy Corbyn on Twitter

Boris Johnson has just twice refused to rule out even more privatisation of our NHS. Under Labour, the NHS will not be for sale.​

I would think the May deal was better for EU. That had us trapped in a custom union with no ability to get other trade deals.

I think my predictions have been alright on Brexit.

My expectation is that non-Brexit issues won't get much of a look in. We will see.

 

[EVNow]

I would think the May deal was better for EU. That had us trapped in a custom union with no ability to get other trade deals.

Now NI is in custom union (in practice).

I think my predictions have been alright on Brexit.

Your prediction was Brexit by Oct 31st.

My expectation is that non-Brexit issues won't get much of a look in. We will see.

That is the Tory plan. Don't know how well they work. Definitely Labor's plan is to talk non-stop about NHS, how Johnson wants to "sell NHS to Trump", how NHS drug drug bill will spike if Johnson enters a deal with Trump etc.

 

[Buckminster]

Now NI is in custom union (in practice).


Your prediction was Brexit by Oct 31st.


That is the Tory plan. Don't know how well they work. Definitely Labor's plan is to talk non-stop about NHS, how Johnson wants to "sell NHS to Trump", how NHS drug drug bill will spike if Johnson enters a deal with Trump etc.

NI is irrelevant to EU financially. But again, they have the best of all worlds now. Inside customs union with the ability to buy products from around the world with low tariffs. How is that good for the EU? The UK is now in a much stronger position to bargain post Brexit.

My odds were 50% likelihood of leaving in Oct on the 19th Oct. My highest odds were 70% I think. I didn't expect Corbyn to be as daft as I believe he has been...

Trump has confirmed that any deals on the NHS would be trade only. Most will know that a wider range of drugs can only be a good thing. Except your Opioids....

The reason why talking NHS won't get him anywhere is that Brexit is the number one issue. When Corbyn did fairly well at the last election they hadn't been through any extensions. Corbyn's plan is to get a new deal and then possibly remain anyway... It will go down like a lead balloon.

 

[EVNow]

Trump has confirmed

Seriously, you believe Trump ? I bet most Brits don't. Those who do are hardcore conservatives and won't vote for Labor anyway.

The reason why talking NHS won't get him anywhere is that Brexit is the number one issue. When Corbyn did fairly well at the last election they hadn't been through any extensions. Corbyn's plan is to get a new deal and then possibly remain anyway... It will go down like a lead balloon.

That remains to be seen. With all the noises about Trump, Russia etc - the 2018 election in US was fought on one issue - healthcare. ​

 

[Jetex Jim]

Here's the FT with their take on the UK General Election. Well worth a look I think.

This doesn't include today's input from Nigel Farage who has announced that he will not stand as an MP. Perhaps he's seen Buckminsters post about Brexit party not getting any seats. They can however still be very successful 'spoilers' for the Tories. Farage gets lots of TV coverage, (he does seem to have replaced Jimmy Saville has the BBC's favorite talking head.) Brexit party can potentially do the Tories more damage than Labour.

As the FT team point out, The Tories have been in power for many years now and on that basis alone that lowers their probability of being reelected. The odds of another hung parliament seem pretty high.

The British FPTP system really is unfit for purpose when critical issues do not break clearly across party lines. When all this is over the UK, if it still exists, must seek electoral reform

 

[Buckminster]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-polls-latest-conservatives-tipped-for-majority-after-first-week-of-campaign-polls-a4283116.html
Boris is keeping his head down. With a forecast significant majority, he has more to lose than gain. Labour have imploded. Lib Dems not getting as much traction as I thought they would. Farage nowhere.

Manifestos in ~2 weeks.

 

[Jetex Jim]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-polls-latest-conservatives-tipped-for-majority-after-first-week-of-campaign-polls-a4283116.html
Boris is keeping his head down. With a forecast significant majority, he has more to lose than gain. Labour have imploded. Lib Dems not getting as much traction as I thought they would. Farage nowhere.

Manifestos in ~2 weeks.

Nevertheless, Farage is still manoeuvring. And his latest angle, to not contest any of the seats won by the Tories in 2017 has more going for it. The opinion polls greatly overestimated the extent of the Tory lead in 2017. The consequence being Theresa May had to partner with the DUP which led to her eventual demise and the rejection of the scheme the EU insisted on - NI & Republic of Ireland being in a common customs union.

With such a strategy victory would mean the Brexit party would be able to hold Boris over a barrel in the same way that the DUP did with Theresa May. The more narrow the Tories victory the better for Farage. Then Farage may be able to pull off that no-deal Brexit he's so keen on and with devastating consequences to Ireland. Such a no-deal would lead, very quickly, to the enactment of one of the strictures of the Good Friday agreement, a referendum on a united Ireland.

Ireland doesn't particularly want this, but rather than not be in a common customs area with NI, it would accept the significant costs of reunification.

And so will peel off the first chunk of the UK. Once NI has gone Scotland will want independence too. Leaving England and tiny Wales in splendid isolation. But Brexit has always been about England, not about the UK.

 

[Buckminster]

Nevertheless, Farage is still manoeuvring. And his latest angle, to not contest any of the seats won by the Tories in 2017 has more going for it. The opinion polls greatly overestimated the extent of the Tory lead in 2017. The consequence being Theresa May had to partner with the DUP which led to her eventual demise and the rejection of the scheme the EU insisted on - NI & Republic of Ireland being in a common customs union.

With such a strategy victory would mean the Brexit party would be able to hold Boris over a barrel in the same way that the DUP did with Theresa May. The more narrow the Tories victory the better for Farage. Then Farage may be able to pull off that no-deal Brexit he's so keen on and with devastating consequences to Ireland. Such a no-deal would lead, very quickly, to the enactment of one of the strictures of the Good Friday agreement, a referendum on a united Ireland.

Ireland doesn't particularly want this, but rather than not be in a common customs area with NI, it would accept the significant costs of reunification.

And so will peel off the first chunk of the UK. Once NI has gone Scotland will want independence too. Leaving England and tiny Wales in splendid isolation. But Brexit has always been about England, not about the UK.

The Brexit Party / UKIP have done okay recently because for those folk, they were the only game in town. That is no longer the case. The polls show it - they are nowhere. Before Farage's latest climbdown the Tories were predicted to have a majority of 96 seats! Now maybe higher?

I suspect that Farage is doing all this partly to keep Boris honest. It has worked as Boris has promised to not extend the transition period.

The media have a mutual interest in making the election look like a close race. In addition all parties are happy for it to appear close, otherwise their punters won't bother turning up.

 

[Buckminster]

It has worked as Boris has promised to not extend the transition period.

This is now set up for another dramatic period in our lives. Likely timeline:

12 Dec 19 - Boris wins significant majority
31 Jan 20 (or a few week earlier) - Brexit, transition period
~Feb 20 - Boris will continue to throw money at the public but with more right wing benefits
~Jul 20 - Trump will promise a deal soon
~Sep 20 - Barnier trade deal will hot up
31 Dec 20 - Leave extension period with a partial trade deal?

11 months isn't long enough but presumably Boris will use it to keep the pressure on getting a deal. Would he be better extending so that he can get other deals in place first? The problem with that is each deal will make a decent EU deal that much harder.

 

[Cogarch]

Meanwhile once Tories win expect a flood of Remainers (like me) desperately seeking a personal exit strategy to the EU that will not be wrecked by a no-deal Brexit after trade talks fail..

What a shame my M3 is RHD...!

 

[Jetex Jim]

Meanwhile once Tories win expect a flood of Remainers (like me) desperately seeking a personal exit strategy to the EU that will not be wrecked by a no-deal Brexit after trade talks fail..

What a shame my M3 is RHD...!

Indeed, I took the precaution of taking European (German) citizen ship last year. And my M3, when it gets here is LHD.

 

[Jetex Jim]

BTW, IT'S OFFICIAL TESLA GIGAFACTORY 4 EUROPE WILL BE LOCATED IN BERLIN, GERMANY

I don't understand it. Why wouldn't Elon Musk put the new Gigafactory in Brexit Britain?

Does anybody have any idea?

 

[EVNow]

This is now set up for another dramatic period in our lives. Likely timeline:

12 Dec 19 - Boris wins significant majority
31 Jan 20 (or a few week earlier) - Brexit, transition period
~Feb 20 - Boris will continue to throw money at the public but with more right wing benefits
~Jul 20 - Trump will promise a deal soon
~Sep 20 - Barnier trade deal will hot up
31 Dec 20 - Leave extension period with a partial trade deal?

11 months isn't long enough but presumably Boris will use it to keep the pressure on getting a deal. Would he be better extending so that he can get other deals in place first? The problem with that is each deal will make a decent EU deal that much harder.

This is what Jon Worth thinks will happen ...

 

[Buckminster]

Meanwhile once Tories win expect a flood of Remainers (like me) desperately seeking a personal exit strategy to the EU that will not be wrecked by a no-deal Brexit after trade talks fail..

What a shame my M3 is RHD...!

Sorry to hear that. I was a remainer but am trying to find the silver lining. Trade deal will be a long slog - bound to be failures. I will go down with the ship...

I believe there are more cost effective ways of moving to EU:
Cyprus Investment Programme | Government program