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Brexit
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
Emerging markets levels of instability in UK pension funds 
www.theguardian.com
Bank confirms pension funds almost collapsed amid market meltdown
Official explains how promise to buy up to £65bn of government debt staved off destructive UK financial spiral
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
What is amazing is how much of the Brexit trainwreck is still wreckage in perpetual motion, yielding ever more bad news stories every week
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com
The best hope lies in this government’s hopelessness
The events of the last week are an almost textbook illustration of the point I made a couple of posts ago that “governments are constrained...
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
More Brexit sh1t left flowing, still ......
www.theguardian.com
UK trade regulators struggling to cope due to poor Brexit planning, MPs say
Commons committee warns there are still shortages of staff to deal with UK’s new status as a third country
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
" The UK’s Brexit “divorce bill” stood at €41.8bn (£36.7bn) in 2021, according to the EU’s official auditors.
The European court of auditors’ annual report revealed that the UK was expected to make €10.9bn in payments to the EU during 2022.
The Brexit divorce bill was down from €47.5bn (£41.7bn) in 2020, reflecting payments made by the British government."
www.theguardian.com
The European court of auditors’ annual report revealed that the UK was expected to make €10.9bn in payments to the EU during 2022.
The Brexit divorce bill was down from €47.5bn (£41.7bn) in 2020, reflecting payments made by the British government."
UK’s Brexit divorce bill stood at £36.7bn in 2021, EU audit reveals
Settlement was down from £41.7bn, reflecting payments already made to cover UK obligations
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Home Office taken to court over ‘pre-settled status’ rules for EU citizens
IMA says millions could lose right to live in UK post-Brexit if they do not reapply for settled status and this is ‘unlawful’
www.theguardian.com
IMA says millions could lose right to live in UK post-Brexit if they do not reapply for settled status and this is ‘unlawful’
Home Office taken to court over ‘pre-settled status’ rules for EU citizens
IMA says millions could lose right to live in UK if they do not reapply for settled status and this is ‘unlawful’
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Nah - this is another Brexit consequence
BMW to axe UK production of electric Mini and relocate to China
Cowley factory on outskirts of Oxford not up to challenge of creating electric vehicles, says Mini boss
www.theguardian.com
BMW to axe UK production of electric Mini and relocate to China
Cowley factory on outskirts of Oxford not up to challenge of creating electric vehicles, says Mini boss
BMW to axe UK production of electric Mini and relocate to China
Cowley factory on outskirts of Oxford not up to challenge of creating electric vehicles, says Mini boss
www.theguardian.com
Manufacturing in SE England is impossible unless fully automated but even then the cost of land is huge. Brexit has had a significant affect but so many other crisis' to worry about.Nah - this is another Brexit consequence
BMW to axe UK production of electric Mini and relocate to China
Cowley factory on outskirts of Oxford not up to challenge of creating electric vehicles, says Mini boss
BMW to axe UK production of electric Mini and relocate to China
Cowley factory on outskirts of Oxford not up to challenge of creating electric vehicles, says Mini boss
JupiterMan
Active Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
At least some of the press haven't been muzzled - worth reading just to see how clearly everyone outside the UK can draw the links in
www.theguardian.com
European press blames Brexit for UK political ‘insanity’
European press blames Brexit for UK political ‘insanity’
Columnists suggest Liz Truss’s failure could spell end of ‘wishful thinking’ of a sovereign UK going its own way
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Oh, and less money will be flowing, just as predicted
www.theguardian.com
Trade from UK to EU 16% lower than if Brexit had not happened, report finds
Economic and Social Research Institute analysis found ‘substantial reduction in number of products traded’
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
" it’s this budget which can be seen as the point at which what many, including me, have called the ‘slow puncture’ of Brexit economic damage became something close to a tyre blow-out, albeit that doesn’t mean that the air has stopped leaking from the other tyres (for which, see some truly shocking recent additions to Yorkshire Bylines’ meticulously curated ‘Davis Downside Dossier’). And this is only to speak of the ongoing economic effects, without beginning to consider all the other harms. In any case, these harms are interlinked, for even if the mini-budget wasn’t an economic blow-out, it most certainly caused the political blow-out of Truss’s regime which in turn further exacerbated the damage to the UK’s global reputation as a politically stable country.
Overall, then, the current political chaos and economic turmoil have served to crystallize what has actually been underway for a while. Having won the 2016 vote for Brexit, the Brexiters have comprehensively lost the battle for the post-Brexit narrative which began at the end of the transition period, when the reality of being outside the EU began. There have been ebbs and flows in that battle but, although there will continue to be skirmishes, it is now effectively over. There is very little prospect that the majority public verdict that Brexit was a mistake will ever now change. If anything, that view is likely to solidify and grow. "
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com
Overall, then, the current political chaos and economic turmoil have served to crystallize what has actually been underway for a while. Having won the 2016 vote for Brexit, the Brexiters have comprehensively lost the battle for the post-Brexit narrative which began at the end of the transition period, when the reality of being outside the EU began. There have been ebbs and flows in that battle but, although there will continue to be skirmishes, it is now effectively over. There is very little prospect that the majority public verdict that Brexit was a mistake will ever now change. If anything, that view is likely to solidify and grow. "
Total disarray
It’s becoming hard to write this blog without being repetitious and, in being repetitious, introducing a distasteful ‘I told you so’ tone. B...
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
And there's more
UK economic outlook downgraded to ‘negative’ by rating agency
Moody’s say downgrade from ‘stable’ was driven by political instability and high inflation
The UK’s economic outlook has been downgraded from “stable” to “negative” by the rating agency Moody’s because of political instability and high inflation. ......the change in outlook was driven by “heightened unpredictability in policymaking amid weaker growth prospects and high inflation” and “risks to the UK’s debt affordability from likely higher borrowing and risk of a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
www.theguardian.com
UK economic outlook downgraded to ‘negative’ by rating agency
Moody’s say downgrade from ‘stable’ was driven by political instability and high inflation
The UK’s economic outlook has been downgraded from “stable” to “negative” by the rating agency Moody’s because of political instability and high inflation. ......the change in outlook was driven by “heightened unpredictability in policymaking amid weaker growth prospects and high inflation” and “risks to the UK’s debt affordability from likely higher borrowing and risk of a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
UK economic outlook downgraded to ‘negative’ by rating agency
Moody’s say downgrade from ‘stable’ was driven by political instability and high inflation
www.theguardian.com
JupiterMan
Active Member
Single Market membership is still the elephant in the room.And there's more
UK economic outlook downgraded to ‘negative’ by rating agency
Moody’s say downgrade from ‘stable’ was driven by political instability and high inflation
The UK’s economic outlook has been downgraded from “stable” to “negative” by the rating agency Moody’s because of political instability and high inflation. ......the change in outlook was driven by “heightened unpredictability in policymaking amid weaker growth prospects and high inflation” and “risks to the UK’s debt affordability from likely higher borrowing and risk of a sustained weakening in policy credibility”
UK economic outlook downgraded to ‘negative’ by rating agency
Moody’s say downgrade from ‘stable’ was driven by political instability and high inflation
It would be the single biggest boost to the UK economy and would come at little cost economically.
Until politicians can admit this hard Brexit is not in UK interests we remain in trouble... and it still looks like all potential Tory incumbents cannot publicly admit this, and their membership are still swayed by the nonsense of the Daily Mail / Telegraph etc.
We still have some way to go until reality takes over, but it will at some point, it is inevitable.
Agreed, DeSantis won't be in power until after Starmer. Starmer will likely sign up to single market. Had conservatives and DeSantis been in power together for a year then this might have been different.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The issue for UK is that 'only' gaining full single market access will require:
- acceptance of the four freedoms (goods, services, capital, people);
- acceptance of ultimate authority of CJEU (or its proxy, the EFTA court);
- paying into EU coffers some form of financial contribution (though the EFTA version is disguised as being 'voluntary');
But that obtaining the above is genuinely a naked dimunition of sovereignty as there is no corresponding seat at any of the decision-making tables as arises from EU membership, not even the token sops that arise from EFTA membership.
Given the very understandable reluctance of the EU to negotiate a Swiss-style a-la-carte deal, and given that the EU is progressively moving to wind the Swiss deal up as it is unsustainable, I struggle to see how the EU would be prepared to put together a Swiss-style bespoke deal for the UK, that would be sufficient to placate the swivel-eyed zealots that form the ERG-UKIP-BNP bloc known as the Conservatives. Therefore I simply don't think the EU will be prepared to give 'full' single market access. Even if it were then really the only mechanism to do so is EFTA and it is unclear whether the EFTA nations want the UK smashing their EFTA furniture and they've made that point pretty clearly.
And all of this presupposes that UK politicians will be adult enough to have a mature and informed discussion with the UK's voters regarding the issues, which I very much doubt - or that the UK's voters are mature enough to face up to the bitter tasting medicine. I'd like to be wrong on this, I really would.
Sadly I think things will have to get a lot worse for the people of the UK before there is any chance of them getting better. By which time the UK itself may no longer exist, and the ERG-UKIP-BNP libertrarian fanatics may have had enough time to deliberately wreck the systems and swerve the UK into a Puerto Rico style US vassaldom from which there is no return. That is clearly their intent.
Andy O
Member
Who is DeSantis? and why is he waiting on Starmer? The only DeSantis Google knows is the governor of Florida.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The libertrarian wing of the ERG-BNP-UKIP are hoping that an equally swivel-eyed but-younger version of Trump (namely DeSantis) wins the 2024 USA presidential election for the Republicans. Then does a trade deal with UK that makes it impossible for UK to rejoin the EU. Said trade deal to include eviscerating and privatising the NHS; privatising (or closing) the BBC; removing all food & agruculture subsidies and standards (hormone beef, GMO maize, etc); eliminating right-to-strike and employment protections; and creating a frozen conflict with EU over NI that is perpetually weaponised. Their agenda goes much further than this, but at least it gives a flavour.
Any other Republican candidate that they can control is equally suitable in their eyes. But DeSantis is their front-runner as they don't expect Trump to evade all of the very many lawsuits. (He may yet, who knows).
One problem they face is that their stooge in the UK was Johnson-the-liar who was inconsiderate enough to get himself forced out of office before the drop-dead date of end-2024 that provides the only available period of right-wing-maniacs in overlapping control of both UK and USA. And then it turned out their selected replacement Disaster Truss was out of office even faster. Hence their trying to talk up the return of Johnson-the-liar. They don't think that either Sunak or Morbid are venal or irresponsible enough to sell the remnants of the UK down the river, even if they might be reliable enough to eke out the full parliamentary term to end-2024. And Starmer definitely won't.
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