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Regrettably none of this has apparently been fully understood by the European Commission and European leaders, who are still insisting that the un-ratifable Withdrawal Agreement is a holy document that cannot have a single letter or comma changed, despite 200 of its 550 pages (the Northern Ireland Protocol) quite likely being legally incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement. Unless they budge, we're therefore heading for a No Deal Brexit either in October or shortly thereafter, which quite ironically might end up precipitating the customs checks at the Irish border that the Backstop was designed to prevent at all costs.
I see someone is blaming EU for stupidity of leavers again.

What I can say? Shifting the blame is pretty good propaganda tactic.
 
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I see someone is blaming EU for stupidity of leavers again.

What I can say? Shifting the blame is pretty good propaganda tactic.
I am not one to blame (much), but if we exit with no deal I would assign something like:

Juncker, Macron & Tusk - 15%
Farage - 15%
ERG etc. - 15%
Remainer MPs - 5%
UK public - 15%
Media - 10%
Previous governments for not investing in North of England etc. - 15%
Cameron - 5%
May - 5%

Quite a list...
 
I am not one to blame (much), but if we exit with no deal I would assign something like:
Wow - not Boris Johnson or hard core Brexit MPs ? Who/what is ERG ? (ps : I searched for it, basically hardcore Brexit MPs ?)

I'd split it as people responsible for Brexit & those responsible for no-deal crash out. In no deal crash out - Leave MPs (who didn't vote for May's deal), May & Johnson should get 90%+ of the blame.

ps : I'd blame tabloids, xenophobic politicians (or politicians who exploited and stoked xenophobia), neo-liberal PMs like Blair & Cameron for Brexit itself.
 
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Wow - not Boris Johnson or hard core Brexit MPs ? Who/what is ERG ? (ps : I searched for it, basically hardcore Brexit MPs ?)

I'd split it as people responsible for Brexit & those responsible for no-deal crash out. In no deal crash out - Leave MPs (who didn't vote for May's deal), May & Johnson should get 90%+ of the blame.

ps : I'd blame tabloids, xenophobic politicians (or politicians who exploited and stoked xenophobia), neo-liberal PMs like Blair & Cameron for Brexit itself.
Boris is in the "etc." of ERG etc.
Separating out blame for Brexit and no deal is taking easy way out.
Some will say that no deal was inevitable due to NI border etc. The May deal is really not Brexit - which is why I was happy enough with it.

Another root cause was the UK not accepting Schengen or the Euro/Eurozone (or for the EU for introducing them). This meant that we were already on the outside which meant the Irish were too. Irish have not helped themselves either with their tax levels. A no deal outcome will be the EU screwing the Irish as well as UK. The BBC can also be blamed. Their bremoaning stance has stopped Brexiteers watching - which means that the Brexiteers have not been as well informed. This has really polarised the country. I imagine that some remainers watch a lot more non-BBC than they used to, just to get a balanced view.
 
Wow - not Boris Johnson or hard core Brexit MPs ? Who/what is ERG ? (ps : I searched for it, basically hardcore Brexit MPs ?)

I'd split it as people responsible for Brexit & those responsible for no-deal crash out. In no deal crash out - Leave MPs (who didn't vote for May's deal), May & Johnson should get 90%+ of the blame.

ps : I'd blame tabloids, xenophobic politicians (or politicians who exploited and stoked xenophobia), neo-liberal PMs like Blair & Cameron for Brexit itself.
What blame would you assign to the very long list of Remainer MPs that a) voted for the referendum, b) then voted to invoke Article 50 and then c) voted against both the only deal on the table, to hold a second referendum or to revoke Article 50?

The truth is that on the UK side, a No Deal Brexit is principally the fault of the Continuity Remainder gang, which to this day continue to advise the European Commission not to give ground in the negotiations because they'll find a way to block No Deal and then eventually overturn Brexit itself. This means that it's been impossible to negotiate a deal that's politically deliverable in the UK Parliament. Remember that likely all Leave MPs are primarily motivated by sovereignty issues, rather than your constant harping that anyone that voted for Brexit is first and foremost a racist. It's hence very difficult to get approval for anything that undermines rather than enhances the UK's sovereignty.

Most impartial observers would say that on the European side, there was never much intention to negotiate in good faith. Article 50 of the EU Constitution requires the exit talks to be conducted "with a view to the future relationship". And yet they insisted on sequencing the talks to be first only about the terms of exit, with almost no talks yet conducted about the future relationship after 3 years! It seems quite clear they've approached it as a punishment process, which rather tells you all you need to know about how attractive the Commission thinks EU membership truly is.

By the way, you never replied to my earlier link to an academic study on the voting rationale for Brexit so I'll paste the pertinent pictures here for you. A tip: stop telling everyone who disagrees with your view of the best model for national and international governance that they are racist/xenophobic. It is unbecoming and frankly makes you look moronic. Try instead to learn about your own confirmation biases. Take particular note of the second column in each of these charts.

Stated-Reasons-Fig-1.png


Stated-Reasons-Fig-2.png
 
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Remember that likely all Leave MPs are primarily motivated by sovereignty issues, rather than your constant harping that anyone that voted for Brexit is first and foremost a racist. It's hence very difficult to get approval for anything that undermines rather than enhances the UK's sovereignty.
I'm afraid I don't understand why you think that chart supports your argument so strongly. Although it does show that the views of remain voters about leave voters are distorted, it nevertheless indicates that immigration issues were actually a (slightly) stronger factor than sovereignty for leave voters. Even if immigration were slightly weaker than sovereignty, it still doesn't change the fact that immigration was the key motivator for a substantial fraction of leave voters, and certainly doesn't support the argument that "likely all Leave MPs are primarily motivated by sovereignty issues".

Of course this doesn't mean that everyone concerned over immigration is a racist, but it certainly doesn't support the view that immigration concerns were of far lesser significance than sovereignty.

I admit also that things have changed since then, with many people now primarily motivated by seeing the result of the referendum enacted to ensure that democracy functions as intended, and I think sovereignty is wrapped up in that now that the EU is seen by many as interfering with the UK's democratic choice.
 
US and Britain could sign sector-by-sector trade deals, says John Bolton
Majority of Britons support 'Brexit by any means' - poll - Reuters
Boris is gaining traction bit by bit. EU caught off guard as predicted. They should move Barnier to an office in Grimsby to educate him. If the EU don't start talking about a new deal soon, Boris won't be able to do a deal because his campaign (aimed at getting the EU to do a deal) will have worked too well on the UK people...

Taking this back to TSLA (this is in the Investor section after all), there's some speculation that autos will be part of the first agreed package with the US, with an aspiration mentioned in the media to try and get an interim / temporary agreement in place for 01 November.

Right now Model 3s in the UK carry the 10% tariff charged by the EU, which in turn are subject to 20% VAT. These taxes push even unoptioned SR+ cars into the "premium" band for annual tax road purposes, chargeable at £310 per year for 5 years as opposed to zero if below the threshold.

As I've said before, Brexit could actually turn out to be really good for Tesla sales in the UK (and/or gross margins of UK sales).
 
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I'm afraid I don't understand why you think that chart supports your argument so strongly. Although it does show that the views of remain voters about leave voters are distorted, it nevertheless indicates that immigration issues were actually a (slightly) stronger factor than sovereignty for leave voters. Even if immigration were slightly weaker than sovereignty, it still doesn't change the fact that immigration was the key motivator for a substantial fraction of leave voters, and certainly doesn't support the argument that "likely all Leave MPs are primarily motivated by sovereignty issues".

Of course this doesn't mean that everyone concerned over immigration is a racist, but it certainly doesn't support the view that immigration concerns were of far lesser significance than sovereignty.

I admit also that things have changed since then, with many people now primarily motivated by seeing the result of the referendum enacted to ensure that democracy functions as intended, and I think sovereignty is wrapped up in that now that the EU is seen by many as interfering with the UK's democratic choice.
EVNow has a chip on his/her shoulder that Brexit is an overwhelmingly a racist project. What is clear is that less than 40% of Leave voters even mentioned immigration as their primary voting factor, and as you note, an unknown portion of this group really meant they wanted sovereign control of immigration rather than to stop immigration.

Speaking for myself and many people I know, I find the immigration system necessitated by EU membership to be inequitable and racist. It says that if you are one of half a billion people from one of 30 European nations (which are predominantly white and christian), then you have the same rights as national citizens. But if you're from any of the other "scarier" parts of the world (be it Africa, India, China, or even the US, Canada or Australia), the immigration system is a minefield.

Further, the current system has encouraged immigration flows which have worked very nicely for the educated professional class in the UK but quite badly for the rest. Since the Eurozone crisis, the UK economy has been an engine for private sector job creation and this has continued even after the Brexit vote (1 million extra jobs created since the 2016 referendum). But wage growth has been very poor, particularly so at the bottom end of the income pyramid. Real incomes are still below the pre-2008 level. It's not a stretch to think that expanding the potential supply of labour by half a billion people (including from some far lower income states) has capped low skilled wages. When you're university educated and in such a privileged position that you can invest in single stocks such as Tesla, it's easy to throw stones at what you see as the racist plebs that don't like immigrants but this somewhat misses the bigger picture.

In terms of my confidence in the rationale of MPs, these are people that are so obsessed with the act of lawmaking that they have chosen to pursue a parliamentary career. The current UK parliament is on the whole quite remarkably free of political extremists and it's ludicrous to think that xenophobia outweighs their desire for preserving the sanctity of parliamentary sovereignty. It's not just Brexiteer MPs that find the Backstop democratically unconscionable but Remain supporting ones too. And as you mention, there are plenty that think Brexit is the most idiotic idea they've ever heard of but who now back its implementation at any cost, as they understand that losers consent is the pillar of any stable democratic society (see Noel Gallagher above).

It's this fundamental mis-reading of the underlying motives of the Brexit project, by both the previous UK government and those setting the European negotiating mandate, that have led to the current gridlock. This failure has now been remedied on the UK side but the European side seem irretrievably unreconciled, which is why a No-Deal Brexit is by my book now a racing certainty.
 
i am sure it will be a no deal brexit my thoughts from the very start, my gut feelings are not normally wrong the way i se it going.

EU will not budge an inch

parliment tries to stop the no deal going through boris suspends parliment and pushes it through.

that is what we voted for 3 years ago.

we will survive and prosper as we allways have..and just maybe the poorer in our society will get a better deal.we can only hope.
 
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EVNow has a chip on his/her shoulder
Oh c'mmon, stop the ad hominem. You are better than that.

Also stop minimizing xenophobia/racism. Its not my fault if Brexit was driven based on Xenophobia by tabloids. Its precisely this kind of minimizing that leads to horrific incidents like the NewZealand or El Paso shooting.

just maybe the poorer in our society will get a better deal.we can only hope.

One hopes - but if Trump administration is anything to go by … its just the rich looting even more and screwing the environment & labor standards.
 
Speaking for myself and many people I know, I find the immigration system necessitated by EU membership to be inequitable and racist. It says that if you are one of half a billion people from one of 30 European nations (which are predominantly white and christian), then you have the same rights as national citizens. But if you're from any of the other "scarier" parts of the world (be it Africa, India, China, or even the US, Canada or Australia), the immigration system is a minefield.

It's nothing to do with race.

The introduction of the EU brought in free movement of labor and free movement of goods and services at the same time. Along with the free movement comes equal treatment. The EU generally believes that free trade without free movement of labor or without equal rights for the migrants is harmful, which is why they're not budging much in negotiations with the UK. Similarly, the EU has competition laws that try to avoid an economic race to the bottom by banning company-specific incentives (see Ireland turning a blind eye to Apple's obviously dodgy tax avoidance scheme).
 
It's nothing to do with race.

The introduction of the EU brought in free movement of labor and free movement of goods and services at the same time. Along with the free movement comes equal treatment. The EU generally believes that free trade without free movement of labor or without equal rights for the migrants is harmful, which is why they're not budging much in negotiations with the UK. Similarly, the EU has competition laws that try to avoid an economic race to the bottom by banning company-specific incentives (see Ireland turning a blind eye to Apple's obviously dodgy tax avoidance scheme).
There’s no academic reason why free movement of labour is a prerequisite to a single market in goods and services, beyond the fact that the EU’s proponents cite the indivisibility of the four freedoms with something approaching religious fervour.

The reason for this of course is because such people see the Single Market as a precursor to a full federal union. That’s a perfectly acceptable goal of course but it’s nothing to do with the trade union that uk voters thought they had signed up to.

And the direct consequence of the 4th freedom being unconditionally bundled with the other three, is that it’s been much harder for my Indian, American and Australian friends and family to settle in the UK.
 
All roads lead to no deal. Remainers unwilling to unite under Corbyn. They are desperate, but not that desperate. Corbyn won't back Clarke or anyone else. The remainer public haven't shown their teeth for a while.

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 55%
Hard Brexit (Canada or similar) - 10%
Theresa May deal with alterations - 20%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 10%
 
EU unconvinced by Johnson's fresh bid to remove Brexit backstop
Boris's letter - reasons to leave the backstop, but no solutions to the problems for the EU that it will create.

I think at this point it's all political expectations management:
  • Boris making a very public gesture to the EU that he knows ahead of time they'll reject.
  • Jezza trying to show he did his best to stop No Deal Brexit but it's the Tory remainers' (and Libs'!) fault for not backing him
  • Swinson trying to look concurrently that she is willing to do anything to stop Brexit entirely, while at the same time distancing herself from Corbyn, an alliance with whom appears the only viable route to success (the Meat Loaf strategy - I'd do anything [for love] but I won't do that)
  • The EU / Ireland falling back on the same trope that "the withdrawal agreement cannot be reopened", presumably because it was transcribed into the holy scriptures from a stone tablet found on top of a mountain somewhere near Jean Monnet's birthplace.
Right now it looks for all the world that it's a WTO Brexit on 31 October, and thereafter the UK body politic to move closer towards the Anglosphere and drift away from Europe.

I'd give no more than a 5-10% chance that some Parliamentary ruse leads to an extension - see this report for why: Voting on Brexit: Parliament's role before 31 October

An extension likely only delays the inevitable anyway. Any ensuing "People vs Parliament" election could be a bloodbath for the forces of Remain, given the likelihood that Tory Remain incumbents are unlikely to be re-selected for election and especially given how inefficient the Remain vote is when run under First Past the Post format (i.e. concentrated heavily in London, Scotland and a few university towns). It's estimated that Leave won in 400+ seats out of 650 in 2016.

I'd give even smaller odds that EU leaders will crack and offer something different at the October conference but you never know. My reading however is that they now want a No Deal Brexit, for well rehearsed reasons that I personally find misjudged but which they are no doubt quite comfortable with.
 
Right now it looks for all the world that it's a WTO Brexit on 31 October, and thereafter the UK body politic to move closer towards the Anglosphere and drift away from Europe.

'Delusional' for Brexit Britain to expect US trade deal

Larry Summers : "In the same way, establishing absolutely that, as a matter of sacred principle, your leaving Europe has to be the worst way to give you leverage with any new potential partners."

If I may add, "Brexit" is almost a partisan issue in the US because Dems associate Brexit with Trump (who supported it). They also look at Brexit win as similar to Trump win - for similar reasons. I can't see anything around Brexit passing the House - even though, conceivably Trump will be sympathetic.
 
Boris goes into G7 with positive feedback from Macron, Merkel & Trump. 30 days to find a solution to the impossible? A fool's errand? It would be surprising if Boris comes back with, "we will use technology on the Irish border, sign this trade deal that allows us to trade with ROW also", and the EU say, "sure".

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 45%
Hard Brexit (Canada or similar) - 20%
Theresa May deal with alterations (including removal of backstop) - 25%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 5%