I am sorry to say but it will be very hard on you guys. That is what specialists say. How hard is difficult to say as you haven't left yet. So you or anyone else cannot say exactly what the result will be but that there will be a very difficult period, with people losing employment And rising prices. By the way, Britain wasn't doing "just fine" before you joined the EEC. Massive inflation and unemployment. You were "the sick man of Europe". A lot of wealth in Britain and the rest of Europe gained the last thirty years has come from the common market.
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Brexit
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
I am sorry to say but it will be very hard on you guys. That is what specialists say. How hard is difficult to say as you haven't left yet. So you or anyone else cannot say exactly what the result will be but that there will be a very difficult period, with people losing employment And rising prices. By the way, Britain wasn't doing "just fine" before you joined the EEC. Massive inflation and unemployment. You were "the sick man of Europe". A lot of wealth in Britain and the rest of Europe gained the last thirty years has come from the common market.
busaman
Member
most of the wealth in brittain today comes from self employment and small buissines.
our problems back then had nothing to do with europe but unions that crippled industry (which margaret thatcher dealt with single handed)
our problems back then had nothing to do with europe but unions that crippled industry (which margaret thatcher dealt with single handed)
You know, if you really want to go without a deal, go ahead. The rest of Europe would not really miss you guys as you always wanted special treatment. You had the best deal with Europe of all the members and you guys were still always whining and putting heels in the sand if Europe wanted to move forward. Now you risk war in Ireland, disolvement of the U.K., massive unemployment and misery. All by your own choosing.
I have been following the debate quite closely and I still cannot understand why anyone with a sane mind would ever choose to leave, especially without a deal. Do you really think you can make more favourable trade deals with other countries than the whole of Europe? What extra leverage have you compared to a common market of 300+ million people? Do you really think everything will be alright on November 1 when most of your fresh produce and medicine is imported from the mainland and now need to be imported on WTO rules? Do you really think factories will be alright when they rely on just-in-time products coming from mainland Europe, now subject to WTO terms and tariffs?
Once again, we cannot stop you. Just remember, if you want to return to EU you need to join Schengen and adopt the EURO. You will never have such a sweet deal as you have now.
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busaman
Member
we are the 3rd biggest contributer to the EU with the majority of other countrys just taking so dont be so naive to think it wont be missed.
and do you really think the french, german, spanish, farmers wont want to sell to us. they rely on us as much as we do them.
margaret thatcher once said "socialism is a great thing but eventually you run out of other peoples money"
and do you really think the french, german, spanish, farmers wont want to sell to us. they rely on us as much as we do them.
margaret thatcher once said "socialism is a great thing but eventually you run out of other peoples money"
Singer3000
Member
Looks like general election coming up then. Do I get to wear my I Told You So pants?
To dutchie: that even now hardly anyone in Europe understands why a majority in the UK voted to leave, is itself a perfect expression of why the majority voted that way. Mars and Venus.
Talk me through the mechanism for those “rising prices” while you’re at it will you? And please do us all a favour and explain it to Ms Lagarde too. The world’s central banks are desperate to engineer some inflation right now and are all failing miserably. If you’ve got the secret, don’t be shy about sharing it.
To dutchie: that even now hardly anyone in Europe understands why a majority in the UK voted to leave, is itself a perfect expression of why the majority voted that way. Mars and Venus.
Talk me through the mechanism for those “rising prices” while you’re at it will you? And please do us all a favour and explain it to Ms Lagarde too. The world’s central banks are desperate to engineer some inflation right now and are all failing miserably. If you’ve got the secret, don’t be shy about sharing it.
Rising prices:
1. There will be a tariff on most imported goods (WTO terms remember). For cars it is, I believe, 10%. These tariffs will be reflected in the prices so cars will become 10% more expensive;
2. Most produce needs to be imported. Besides the tariffs there will be huge lines for customs, delaying produce to come to the end consumer. This result in more produce going bad so less good produce end op in stores. All costs have to be recouped over less, this results in higher prices;
3. The exchange rate of the Pound Sterling is already falling due to the uncertainty. Falling rate of pond sterling will result in higher prices for imported goods.
Of course the government can decide not to put tariffs on goods imported from the EU. The issue then is that all other countries can demand a similar treatment from the UK government. So also goods imported from US, China etc needs to have no tariffs as well. I don't think that is the intention as the UK.
The government can also decide to use the proceeds of the tariffs to lower taxes. However, there will be massive unemployment. Car manufacturers like Honda, Toyota who have assembly plants in the UK or plants from Airbus or Rolls Royce; they do not want there products suddenly be more expensive in the EU. Rolls Royce for instance makes aircraft engines for Airbus. Besides, they also import semi-finished goods from the EU, which is now als subjected to import tariffs. So that is a double whammy. They will shut dow their plants and move to mainland Europe. The Government will need the proceeds for tariffs to pay for all those former workers who need government assistance.
Really, it is not so hard to see what will happen and is already happening. And my question really is why? What is so bad about the EU? What can you do better in future compared to what you have now? Why do you want to risk war in Northern Ireland? why do you want the risk of Scotland and Northeren Ireland to leave th UK so that they can join the EU.
Everyone will be worse of with you leaving the EU. Well maybe not everyone. The USA may come out ahead. But you are going to have a pretty big slowdown in your economy and it’s going to take years to recover.
Laura K on twitter:
By end of tmrw we might be in position where Tories say they don’t want an election, but push for one, and Labour says they do want an election, but are trying to block it - another crazy day beckons - more in the morning
Tony Blair warned Corbyn that the election was an elephant trap.
By end of tmrw we might be in position where Tories say they don’t want an election, but push for one, and Labour says they do want an election, but are trying to block it - another crazy day beckons - more in the morning
Tony Blair warned Corbyn that the election was an elephant trap.
Singer3000
Member
Spoiled fresh food goods at Calais leading to a statistically significant and sustained increase in UK consumer price inflation? You may want to rethink that argument. As for tariffs, the UK wants a free trade deal and is already 100% aligned in regulatory standards. If one isn’t signed it’s because it’s politically expedient for European leaders not to agree one. So be it, there are other trading partners. Car tariffs: I am personally excited at the prospect of tariff free Tesla Model 3s rather than tariff free German cheat-mobiles.
Your exchange rate point is also conjecture based upon a simplified reading of the economic theory and is unsupported by the data. The UK’s CPI inflation rate of 2.1% is almost exactly at the target rate of 2.0%. This is despite GBP/USD trading 15% below its level of 18mths ago (the approximate period for inflation transmission effects to take effect) and more than 20% below the pre referendum level. More is the pity given how indebted the UK remains.
Meanwhile UK asset prices (particularly housing) remain at a highly inflated level, largely thanks to global QE and bad planning law but unhelped by the free capital regime (and to a lesser extent free people movement) required by EU membership. Combine this with stagnant real wages for everyone below the top quintile (despite sustained full employment), as a result of decades of manufacturing jobs in the supply chain being offshored to Europe, and more recently the marginal cost of domestic labour being bid down by EU to UK immigration.
And there are your economic ingredients for Brexit. The political ingredients should not be hard to understand, it’s merely a matter of perspective.
To quote the perfectly reasonable opinion of ex Chancellor Ken Clarke: “I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe”.
Fair enough Ken. But this is an extremely fringe view in the UK: island nation, centuries long period of parliamentary democracy with no cultural memory of occupation/fascist/communist government, common rather than Napoleonic legal system, linguistic and historical cultural bias to Anglosphere/Commonwealth.
As for unemployment, since 2010 the UK has been an engine of private sector jobs creation, with 3 million more created than destroyed over the period. One million of these jobs were created since the referendum! Of the first 2 million, many of these went to nationals of fringe EU countries that suffered hardest under the ECB’s insane policies. So the UK helped to temporarily diffuse the societal time bomb of the Euro but at the cost of stagnant real wages for its own population. You’re most welcome.
Looking forwards, I do not dispute that major changes to an economic and political system such a Brexit will cause disruption to employment at a micro level. But I believe in the long run, Brexit will be a success from both a real wages AND jobs creation perspective.
Northern Ireland is a whole separate debate. Needless to say I disagree with your assessment and would point you to the cordial bilateral progress being made on the border issue under Taoiseach Kenny. And then how his successor Varadkar allowed the issue to be weaponised as a multilateral bargaining chip, with a solution being imposed that is almost certainly legally incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement but which has until now played well with the republican vote in the south.
You don’t need to take it as an insult that the UK wants to cut its own path in the world and that a majority of its population believes power best resides where it as as localised, transparent and accountable as possible. Every society is the product of its own story and there are perfectly sound reasons why others may prefer to group into a larger union. You can now get on with it and fully federalise the EU before the Euro blows up the whole project.
You don't need to take my word for it but listen to people who work in the industry. This is what is going to happen with food supply in case of a no-deal Brexit. It talks about why food will go bad and the consequences of that.
Here is one of what is going to happen with just-in-time manufacturing
As with the Northern-Ireland debate. You can talk about it with the Republic all you want but this was a conflict which happened inside Norther Ireland itself.
As for cutting your own paths and having a localized, transparent and accountable power. Please explain what this means and what will be different going forward. Name me one law or regulation that is forced upon the UK by the EU without parliamentary consent. For EU rules that the UK didn't want they opted out. That is why the UK is not part of Schengen or the EURO.
Wowsers, what is happening...
Boris had momentum but after tonight I am not so sure. Election now likely plus good chance of an extension.
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 30%
Hard Brexit (Canada or similar) - 15%
Theresa May deal with alterations (including removal of backstop) - 35%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 15%
Boris had momentum but after tonight I am not so sure. Election now likely plus good chance of an extension.
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 30%
Hard Brexit (Canada or similar) - 15%
Theresa May deal with alterations (including removal of backstop) - 35%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 15%
busaman
Member
well you couldnt make it up our political elite are a disgrace appart from boris who has stayed true to his word now its anyones guess corbin is not fit to run a bath let alone a country so i have no fear of him being elected if it comes to an election.....
Just a refresher of what the EU is and does and how the relationship with its individual members work. I didn't know, before watching this video why you ever wanted to leave - especially without a deal. Watching this video makes me even more flabbergasted on the politics of the Brexiteers.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
As I was saying in the main market thread - Labor didn't support the election trap. It would be near suicidal for labor to agree to an election before Oct 31st.
I think now the probabilities of both no deal & hard Brexit are down - and soft Brexit is up. There is now an increased chance of delay, followed by election that Labor+ Lib Dems win and form a government that negotiates a softer Brexit. There is also a chance of Johnson resigning followed by a new prime minister.
I think the best chance of a deal remains some kind of modified May deal that first gets the majority of the Parliament that can then be the basis for negotiation with EU. In hindsight this is what May should have done.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But you never run out of labor to exploit ?
Brexit is a funny thing.
The rich voted for it because they thought it will get rid off workers' rights.
Workers voted for it because they thought it will get rid off civil liberties of "foreigners".
EVNow
Well-Known Member
As expected opposition parties are not going to support Johnson's political tactics. Duh.
Opposition parties to reject PM election move
Opposition parties to reject PM election move
UK opposition parties have agreed not to back Boris Johnson's demand for a general election before the EU summit in mid-October.
Looks like I need to provide % likelihood of Boris making it to jail over all this... 10%?
Without the threat of no deal, will the EU bother making any changes. A softer Brexit can be achieved from this withdrawal deal. If a remainer government were in power, they would either revoke or take the deal. The main concern for remainers over this withdrawal deal was the loss of sovereignty.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, I was going to suggest this. More likely, his resignation before 31st Oct.
In general I should say - electing fascists always leads to constitutional crisis.
OTOH, will a threat of no-deal anger EU into not making any concessions ? Afterall all those leaders have a domestic audience and their own electoral future to consider. A large number of avoidable tragedies have happened because both sides hardened their stance, ratcheting up the rhetoric. If you can't intimidate a rag-tag country like Afghanistan, can you force EU to do something with threats ?
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