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Can HW4 be retrofitted to 2018 Tesla 3 [no]

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No one knows what HW4 will be comprised of yet, there is just a lot of speculation and leaks. Likewise, no one knows if HW4 will be offered as an optional upgrade to previous gen cars. We'll know only when Tesla makes official announcements.

As an aside, your understanding of there being additional cameras added is based on speculation and leaks (tear down of HW4 CPU). There is now speculation that HW4 will use no additional cameras and the ports available on the CPU module which lead to that assumption will go largely unused.
 
My prediction is that if Tesla determines that FSD can be fully functional at Level 5 using HW3, then you won't get an un upgrade. Now this raises some interesting points because as long ago as 2016 Elon claimed that every car off the line had the capability to do Level 5 (he also claimed that by 2017 he would have a car do LA to Times Square without a single touch, including charging!!). And yet they offered a free upgrade from HW2 to HW3 for those people that bought FSD but got a car delivered with the older computer.

But when they did the upgrade from HW2 to HW3 they had sold significantly less cars than they have sold with HW3. If many people are buying FSD, then it could be a lot more expensive for the company to upgrade people to HW4 for free.
 
We're even assuming here that it's better quality, quantity, or placement. Could even be just another replacing current items with similar items of a lesser cost??? I'm not an FSD customer, so I could absolutely care less about HW4.
 
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Can HW4 be retrofitted to 2018 Tesla 3? It is my understanding there will be additional cameras in the new bumpers. Can they be retrofitted also? Or do I need to buy a new Tesla 3 to get these upgrades?



 
Highly unlikely based on what Tesla has already said, links above. It would not be a simple plug and play swap at all, different dimensions, different connections, etc. Tesla has said HW3 will work, just not as well, if so they’re in the clear.
 
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