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VIN association with delivery date usually will not work. The investment threads tried to use this to predict deliveries back in Q3 2013 with poor results. Analysts picked up some of our results and used them as delivery 'whisper numbers' for production numbers. When those numbers proved inaccurate (the real numbers of deliveries were lower) the stock price dropped.
VIN numbers are assigned to European, Asian and North American orders as they come in..it appears. However, production does not follow VIN numbers as these different markets are built out in batches.
I think one third of 2014 production growth is roughly the expectation for China delivery, i.e. ~5000 by end of this year. So 1000 by June should be pretty solid number considering there are still 6 months remained in 2014. But overall I think China delivery is only constrained by production and country allocation, it won't be surprised to see 10K delivery by end of 2014 if there has sufficient supply from Fremont factory 
One owner picked up the car yesterday from Shanghai. He quoted 20-30 delivery rate per day and around 900/month, and delivery center is very busy.
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-30812875-2.html#
Shanghai delivery center started in full steam from June. Assume Beijing has similar deliver rate, which is highly likely because someone reported it's very busy earlier, but Beijing started in full steam probably from middle of May.
So instead of 1000 delivered by end of June. I think it's conservative to say 2000 delivery in Q2 for China market. With this deliver rate, the interesting thing to observe is China market can easily exceed 10K delivery by end of 2014 if there is no supply constraint from fremont factory. Note, Beijing/Shanghai will be unlikely keep such high delivery rate in the following months because 4 more delivery centers will be opened by September. With more delivery center openned the combined deliver rate should be more than current number, I would say 2000/month should be conservative estimation.
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-30812875-2.html#
Shanghai delivery center started in full steam from June. Assume Beijing has similar deliver rate, which is highly likely because someone reported it's very busy earlier, but Beijing started in full steam probably from middle of May.
So instead of 1000 delivered by end of June. I think it's conservative to say 2000 delivery in Q2 for China market. With this deliver rate, the interesting thing to observe is China market can easily exceed 10K delivery by end of 2014 if there is no supply constraint from fremont factory. Note, Beijing/Shanghai will be unlikely keep such high delivery rate in the following months because 4 more delivery centers will be opened by September. With more delivery center openned the combined deliver rate should be more than current number, I would say 2000/month should be conservative estimation.
I think one third of 2014 production growth is roughly the expectation for China delivery, i.e. ~5000 by end of this year. So 1000 by June should be pretty solid number considering there are still 6 months remained in 2014. But overall I think China delivery is only constrained by production and country allocation, it won't be surprised to see 10K delivery by end of 2014 if there has sufficient supply from Fremont factory
Wow! Great info...although I wouldn't assume the 20-30 per day deliveries to be consistent everyday...there will be dry spells when they wait for a new shipment of cars...even if it was 20-30 per day that is only 750 per month (not 900)
i just wouldn't want to get our expectations too high as what you are saying I think is possible but perhaps only the best of best case scenarios based on the data you got so far.
perhaps we need more data points on this...I thank you for what you are providing and any more data you can relay onto this board will be greatly appreciated
900/month is also quoted by original owner who talked to Shanghai delivery team. Note I put precaution like "if there is no supply constraint from fremont factory". Obviously it won't be the case because all EU/UK/China/US are competing for the production quota now
I do understand we need to be conservative to the quarterly outcome, but we do need perspective for what's going on right now and those things will eventually be priced in sooner or later
I do understand we need to be conservative to the quarterly outcome, but we do need perspective for what's going on right now and those things will eventually be priced in sooner or later
http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/move-electric-cars-now-seems-unstoppable/
Did I miss something? What is this about?
More China charger news:
http://ori.hangzhou.com.cn/ornews/content/2014-06/11/content_5317220.htm
I don't believe this is about Superchargers since it refers to destination charging. Can anyone else shine more light?
http://ori.hangzhou.com.cn/ornews/content/2014-06/11/content_5317220.htm
I don't believe this is about Superchargers since it refers to destination charging. Can anyone else shine more light?
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I saw this news yesterday. It's a project that Tesla provides 80A HPWC free to Shopping Malls, Restaurants and Hotels in major cities to enable Tesla charging in the city, those business also commit that the charging will be free to Tesla owners. I think this is a win-win project for Tesla, Owners and business. It's also a good complimentary for the super charger network alone the highway.
Given that my Chinese is lousy, I thought the news person said it was April (4th month).
He just says to simplify the custom procedure and speed up the process. For example, those cars arrived Shanghai port yesterday and he expected to be sent to Tesla deliver center in 2 days because a lot of customers are waiting for the delivery.
You are welcome! I truely believe China/Hongkong will be the biggest market for Tesla as early as in 2015. Without native language advantage, you guys probably are hard to understand how enthusiastic Chinese government and elites are for Tesla. Some examples:
1) Many and many Chinese elites (government officers, university principles and company CEOs) put Tesla headquater or factory as a sure destination when they visit US;
2) Countless real estate companies rent Tesla Model S for exhibition and test drive per their own cost (not TM), one side is to boost the sales of their apartment, the other side is HUGE FREE advertisement for Tesla across the China
3) Some CEOs even bought Model S as gift for their friends and employees. For example Lei Jun (Xiaomi CEO) at least bought 3 Model S, one for himself, the other two to give his friends; Zhong Yi reserved 20 Model S as bonus for his employees and he also bought one for himself;
4) Many celebrities have very positive user experience report now posted on WEIBO (chinese tweeter);
5) Some Model S owners even drive from Beijing to Shenzhen (2800 km) without super charger support, Zhong Yi even gave out 16 HPWC chargers along the route to set up first "slow" charger network between two cities
Overall Model S is a very affordable car for Chinese elite level (including upper middle class) and the major issue is delivery NOT the demand.
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You are welcome, my pleasure.
I think many here at TMC feel that TM needs to concentrate on China. It is their best market, in my opinion, not only for the model s and probably the X but the GenIII should be a real hit in China.
Agree Model X will be even more successful than Model S in China for below reasons:
1) Chinese are more enthusiastic to SUV, check the luxury brand car dealers in west coast, how large % of their SUV sales is sent to China as grey market? Simply because the China country quota allocation just can't satisfy the market needs for Porche, BMW and Land Rover.
2) Usually luxury brand SUV costs 3 times of US tag price while it's 2 times for Sedan. With Tesla fair price policy, so people will find Model X is more competitive than Model S in terms of pricing
With large base of Chinese middle class, surely GEN III will be huge sucess in China. I even think the China GEN III joint venture factory will be ground breaking even before GEN III online. This is also supported by Chinese government when Elon visited Beijing/Shanghai in April.
1) Chinese are more enthusiastic to SUV, check the luxury brand car dealers in west coast, how large % of their SUV sales is sent to China as grey market? Simply because the China country quota allocation just can't satisfy the market needs for Porche, BMW and Land Rover.
2) Usually luxury brand SUV costs 3 times of US tag price while it's 2 times for Sedan. With Tesla fair price policy, so people will find Model X is more competitive than Model S in terms of pricing
With large base of Chinese middle class, surely GEN III will be huge sucess in China. I even think the China GEN III joint venture factory will be ground breaking even before GEN III online. This is also supported by Chinese government when Elon visited Beijing/Shanghai in April.
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