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China Market situation and outlook

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Pic posted by a Shanghai blogger from club.autohome.com.cn link of 52 Tesla's - probably part of the 166 that were clearing Shanghai customs.
 
900/month is also quoted by original owner who talked to Shanghai delivery team. Note I put precaution like "if there is no supply constraint from fremont factory". Obviously it won't be the case because all EU/UK/China/US are competing for the production quota now :)

I do understand we need to be conservative to the quarterly outcome, but we do need perspective for what's going on right now and those things will eventually be priced in sooner or later

A recent post in the same blog states that Tesla was the 2nd most sold (imported) EV in China with 532 units in May (Kandi Zotye 100 km range was no 1 with 1565 units).

http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-31031474-1.html

Here btw is the Kandi :)

Kandi Zotye.jpg


How does it look compared to the i3?

Reading further down in the posts, there were also 13 i3's imported, accounting for all of the 545 pure EV's imported in May. This means NO Leaf's were imported/sold in May!?!?
 
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How do charger logistics work in a heavily dense urban situation? Apartment living with no standard parking infrastructure even for "regular" cars?

Just one data point - I was just in China for a couple weeks and took the guide I was traveling with over to the Beijing Tesla store. He's now focused on getting a Tesla, owns an apartment, and promptly checked with his apartment management regarding installing an HPWC in the garage. "No problem". I was surprised at how quickly he got the okay.
 
hoho, the car on the truck is about to be delivered, so do super charging at first. Thanks for the pictures from Shanghai. Is the Tesla store across the street opened?

Some of the pictures I took today at the Shanghai Pudong Supercharger

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Bonnie, no surpise. In Chinese Model S forum, I hardly hear anybody complained HPWC installation issue with property management. Certainly it's an issue now for large % of Chinese population, but not in the near future for Tesla owners.

Just one data point - I was just in China for a couple weeks and took the guide I was traveling with over to the Beijing Tesla store. He's now focused on getting a Tesla, owns an apartment, and promptly checked with his apartment management regarding installing an HPWC in the garage. "No problem". I was surprised at how quickly he got the okay.
 
Bonnie, are you still in China? If so, can you get a chance to visit Beijing/Shanghai delivery center to check the real delivery number? Here I got some mixed information:
1) some owners reported that ~900/month delivery rate in Shanghai
2) some reports said the Shanghai will import 400-500/month
3) It's reported that 500ish Model S imported to China in May

It wasn't open a week ago.

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Yup, that's Chinese speed which is very different from US and other western countries.

No, still not open as of today. Looks like a long ways to go (but then again, they finish big construction projects pretty quickly around here...)
 
It's reported imported Model S to China in May 532.
http://www.d1ev.com/news/industry/2014061232264.html

It's reported imported Model S to China in April 53.
http://www.gw.com.cn/news/news/2014/0509/200000342104.shtml

It's interesting to see those reports about statistics for the imported cars, although the registration number for certain model is not available. I think it's good estimation for China monthly sales number based on imports, but some cars might need to take longer time to clear custom so the "imported" doesn't necessarily mean "sold" for some cases.
 
It's reported imported Model S to China in May 532.
http://www.d1ev.com/news/industry/2014061232264.html

It's reported imported Model S to China in April 53.
http://www.gw.com.cn/news/news/2014/0509/200000342104.shtml

It's interesting to see those reports about statistics for the imported cars, although the registration number for certain model is not available. I think it's good estimation for China monthly sales number based on imports, but some cars might need to take longer time to clear custom so the "imported" doesn't necessarily mean "sold" for some cases.

The May numbers match what I posted in an earlier (post #285). In fact reading the text, it seems both links refer to the same source. Looking forward to June's figures - that will give us an idea of China's 2Q sales figures.
 
I think it'll be around 1500. Note only one delivery center (Beijing) was operating back to May. In June there has two (Beijing and Shanghai). Assume each delivery center has same run rate, so probably China delivery will be ended up ~1500. I guess in Q2, there will not be delivery growth to EU and US markets. All the delivery delta will be absorbed by China and UK.

For anyone who missed it, I posted about a week ago my source says TM is expecting 1000 Q2 deliveries in China.