Tesla is getting self-driving cars to market first by being imperfect, but better than humans
Disclaimer; I’m very excited about AP 2.0 and will get it sooner or later.
I just want to point out, that if AP 2.0 is not 100% safe, there will be much bad publicity. Can Tesla take the heat from AP 2.0 related deaths if AP 2.0 is e.g. only 50% safer than human?
Here is a very crude estimate of AP 2.0 related deaths/year in the U.S. assuming, that it is 50% safer than human.
Let’s assume, that there are 100 000 AP cars in the U.S. and that AP 2.0 reduces fatal accidents by 50%.
According to Wikipedia, (2008) there were 1.27 deaths per 100 million miles in US. Without AP that would cause (assuming that average Tesla owner drives 13500 miles per year, source Average Annual Miles per Driver by Age Group) 13.5 deaths in a year. Let’s cut that to 10 because Tesla is much safer than average car, so in average 10 deaths per 100 000 Teslas without AP. If AP reduces this by 50%, there would be 5 accidents with AP 2.0 in U.S. in a year.
5 deaths per year causes a lot of headlines. I’m still pro AP 2.0 implementation.
Disclaimer; I’m very excited about AP 2.0 and will get it sooner or later.
I just want to point out, that if AP 2.0 is not 100% safe, there will be much bad publicity. Can Tesla take the heat from AP 2.0 related deaths if AP 2.0 is e.g. only 50% safer than human?
Here is a very crude estimate of AP 2.0 related deaths/year in the U.S. assuming, that it is 50% safer than human.
Let’s assume, that there are 100 000 AP cars in the U.S. and that AP 2.0 reduces fatal accidents by 50%.
According to Wikipedia, (2008) there were 1.27 deaths per 100 million miles in US. Without AP that would cause (assuming that average Tesla owner drives 13500 miles per year, source Average Annual Miles per Driver by Age Group) 13.5 deaths in a year. Let’s cut that to 10 because Tesla is much safer than average car, so in average 10 deaths per 100 000 Teslas without AP. If AP reduces this by 50%, there would be 5 accidents with AP 2.0 in U.S. in a year.
5 deaths per year causes a lot of headlines. I’m still pro AP 2.0 implementation.